Thanks for laying this out — I agree that Holcim’s intention to tender for all remaining shares is an important incremental point, and the overall setup is interesting. I may be missing something here, so please correct me if I am reading the filings incorrectly, but I think there is one nuance on the implied price.
One caveat on the “~$13/ADR” number: it comes from the higher S/1.85037bn figure in the initial 13D. But CPAC’s May 27 6-K / SMV response includes Holcim’s statement that no CPAC per-share price was expressly agreed; instead, the agreed price was S/1,640,327,224.69 for 99.992136% of Inversiones ASPI.
If you allocate that amount to ASPI’s 211,985,547 CPAC common shares, it implies about S/7.74 per CPAC common share, or S/38.69 per ADR. At roughly 1 PEN = 0.292 USD, that is only about US$11.3 per ADR.
So I would be cautious about treating ~$13/ADR as the floor. The final OPA price will depend on the SMV valuation process, but the lower disclosed ASPI purchase-price figure suggests a materially lower anchor.
