civic248

Great write up! Wasn't it AIG & other financial companies that also took on the counterparty risk for the CDS. Imagined if the government allowed it to fail like Lehman and what a catastrophe for the whole financial system this would have had. They recognized the exposure but did not imagine their hedge could have been wiped out entirely by the same companies that were taking these extraordinary risks?

Social inflation is very real but at least that is keeping some of the liability lines rates not to fall as badly as the property rates. WHen i was still working for an insurance company last year, i already saw bad softening in property at -5%. I was still able to get some increases on liability and I would bet Commercial auto and xs liability would still be in double digit increases given social inflation, nuclear verdicts, and other plantiff attorneys that buys cases and groups them. It is very hard to reserve for something like this and I think fairfax reserves conservatively which is good . Lets hope that the market doesn't cave to the pressures of additional entrants in the commercial insurance space which usually happens as investors chase yield and if they can't have it in bonds, they will chase it in insurance float.

New here and just joined today but have been reading this forum for awhile now after investing in fairfax after attending the Berk meeting in 2022 where i had learned about the Canadian WB. I did a few research and found the company to be amazing and just what I was looking for. Then I discover this community and it was even better. I have been in the commercial insurance industry for 20+ years and just quit last year as I didn't find it very challenging. I am looking forward to contributing and also corresponding with you all. I love all of the members analysis and have read vikings pieces and found incredible details and analysis that goes beyond the typical analyst coverage. What a time to be alive!