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Posts posted by coffeecaninvestor
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27 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:
1 add per year — even S&P 500 has a dozen new adds per year
I have started using the same coffee an strategy but is buying two names per weeks recently:)
I had to buy a few positions in the first year as I reallocate the portfolio to equal weight. Honestly it’s pretty hard to not be more active. It’s a new skill to learn to sit on your ass and just watch the market. My circle of investing stocks also shrunk since I am typically either looking for 100 bagger type stocks or 100 year type businesses. That really limits my universe of investable stocks for the coffee can.
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Over the past 2 years I have simplified my portfolios (just in case I die my wife will have a easier time figuring things out) I sold out of a lot of my individual stocks that were larger positions. I also took almost all my cash and parked it in index funds. My coffee can portfolio is my Roth IRA which means those positions are small since contributions are capped (I buy one new position per year). When I find a high conviction high return bet I plan to sell out of some of the index funds and purchase up to a 10% position, but so far I haven’t found much that meets both return and conviction criteria.
90% index funds
1% CI
1% LHX
1% IQV
1% CNI
1% MKL
1% VRSK
1% NNI
1% FRPH
1% OTCM
1% CACI
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1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:
Greg [ @Gregmal],
This morning I spent the needed almost two hours listening to this interview of Bruce Berkowitz. It's really great. It turns out that my loose [and subjective!] perception of this man has been totally wrong, based on some of his past doings.
He appear fairly straightforward, well connnected to Mother Earth, and most of all he appears very clarified and settled bout his business and what else matters to his own life, - I would say in an uncommon degree, even considering his age. I would personally even call him a bit humble, while it's evident, that he has done very well.
I like him.
Thank you for sharing.
+1. I listened this morning since my son woke me up at 5am. I didn’t know much about him before but seemed down to earth and I really liked the conviction he has in his investments. It made me want to buy some JOE.
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42 minutes ago, Kupotea said:
i fully respect the I only buy and hold great businesses mentality. It’s a proven winner. That doesn’t mean it’s the only successful way to invest.
It’s definitely not the only way. I think it comes down to the individuals temperament, the amount of time they have to devote to studying investments, and manage their portfolio. Personally I don’t have that much time with full time work and a family. I also studied my historical performance when I was more active and using macro for market timing. I realized I wasn’t outperforming and that strategy wasn’t going to work as my free time became less and less with a family and career.
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On 6/4/2024 at 10:15 PM, Jaygo said:
I’m 39 so likely smack in the middle of the age cohort.
Very few regrets but one I do regret is not having a third or fourth child. I could go on and on about wisdom that I’ve gotten but honestly I just wish I didn’t get snipped when I did and had one more kid.
we made a hyper rational decision and frankly I wish emotions had won the day.
I remember 6 years ago thinking another would be too hard, too expensive. We would need a bigger car!! Well now my youngest is seven and he and his sister are the loves of my life. I will never have this feeling again and frankly I’m greedy for another.
I guess I’d say that true wealth is family not finance.
both are important but the latter don’t mean shit without the former and the former is way more important than the latter.
I was thinking about this recently.. I’m lucky my wife talked into a third kid. They grow up so fast. Having kids isn’t easy but it’s easily the most rewarding thing I can think of.
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I used to spend quite a bit of time tracking spreads, yield curves, and value metrics in an attempt to market time. I read enough books to know this is a fools errand. Buying quality businesses that have good balance sheets seemed like the easier endeavor. I think it’s normal in a market like this to get smart and try to time things but Dealraker is right that riding the market is the way to go. It also definitely matters where you are in life. I still have 30+ years to invest, but if I was on the verge of retirement id have a generous pile of cash. In the mean time I’ll set and forget my investments and go bust my ass at work so I have more cash flow to invest when the time comes.
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Moved some of my FDIC insured cash to SGOV. Getting an extra 2-3% yield
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I think there are pockets of the market that always look expensive, but I wouldn't say everything is expensive. You can always find out of favor sectors like healthcare, Aerospace and Defense, Small Caps, financials, etc.. or wait for some kind of company specific event to happen.
Personally I think if someone is trying to buy high quality companies based on easily quantifiable metrics like ROIC those stocks are undoubtedly trading at a rich multiple. They become cult-like because everyone wants to own a compounder, and that is very easy to screen for. Hopefully one day they fall out of favor, but I think it would take a multi-year draw down to cause that.. Covid was pretty short, and everyone flocked to quality.
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27 minutes ago, Intelligent_Investor said:
You can get rich with a much lower than 50% win rate
I agree but we aren't Charlie or Li Lu so our hit rate is bound to be less and/or luck will be a much larger component rather than skill/edge.
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This might have been brought up before but it really got me thinking about the quality of GDP for countries, and the complexity of international investing. I was listening to a podcast (if I remember the episode I will send the link) and the guest was negative on China. His thesis was that the country is really great at producing GDP, but not wealth. He gave an example that they will spend billions building a bridge that will save the population making very little wages and the ROIC will be terrible versus doing that in the US where the economics are much better. I think China is in the too hard pile for me… I’m sure there will be some winners there, but on average over time I think things are just too difficult. I got close to buying Tencent mainly because a good chunk of its revenue was global, but didn’t pull the trigger. If CM only had a 50% win rate in China with Li Lu as a resource what chance do I have picking a winner there..
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15 minutes ago, Charlie said:
better diet through higher quality but more costly food.
Have you see the price per lb for chips and other junk… I think If you factor that in with the added healthcare and Rx costs your saving money eating higher quality food.
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20 minutes ago, james22 said:
Nah.
You have to work a little just to maintain your capabilities, but you certainly can.
+1
I am 35 and in the best shape of my life. I plan on consistently working on it until I am no longer here, and can see myself being in even better shape in my 50's+. The hardest part is starting, but once when you do it amazing how good you feel.
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I wish I had taken better care of my body, and mind in my 20's. I drank way too much, slept too little, and ate like shit. Now that I am healthier I am much more productive and have a much better mind set.
I'd also consider alternatives besides college. I was good at it, but did not enjoy it. I didn't put effort into getting scholarships, studying for SAT's, or going to the best college to fit what I wanted to do. If I had to do it over again I would put 110% effort into going to college or not at all. Going half heartily just gets you a huge pile of debt, and a really rough start to your working adult life.
I probably won the lottery finding the right partner in college. Having a spouse that has similar views money, kids, life, politics, and religion makes a huge difference. I'd highly recommend people spend more time figuring this out.
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45 minutes ago, dealraker said:
coffeecaninvestor I am reasonably cautious as to making a statement on that even given that there are new entrants (relatively new anyway) such as RYAN, Baldwin (BRP), and Goosehead that have obviously attained some success. I did for a short time have a small investment in BRP, but sold and am not following it. I do not follow these three just listed though so you'll have to read here (past posts) as to those and our posters views- views I'd give positive credit too for sure. longterminvestor, spekulatius, and gfp...I'd read their stuff if you haven't.
Some time ago Fairfax's (they owned 40%) even listed on the NYSE for a short time. That was the most successful shorter term investment I've ever made - unfortunately Fairfax/Prem decided to sell it - so yes your statement and question above has merit. As longterminvestor mentioned on RYAN....well, there are opportunities.
That's why I occasionally post - keeping this thread alive should be a profitable endeavor with little long term risk of capital loss. So we should occasionally come aboard here to mention things, and of course that's what I'm trying to do. We have some quite capable posters here, some good sound investing should come of it.
I just love a good business, a long term business to hold and discuss. I get attached my wife says, I don't like to let go. She says I have not only "relationships with people" that are meaningful, but also "relationships with things, concepts, and models" that I stay with.
Rambling, good night.
I’ve basically have worked in insurance for my entire career so far and it’s always amazed me how well these brokers get paid, and how little disruption there is.. it’s pretty rare to even see a change in broker. From what I can tell it is mainly relationship driven which is hard to for me to wrap my head around moat wise. I should probably take a hint and just buy some brokers, and add to them over time.. I missed Copart when I worked at The Hartford and used their services on a daily basis. It would have compounded at a 30% CAGR over the past decade…let’s not compound the stupidity of missing two great businesses.
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1 hour ago, dealraker said:
So here goes another somewhat on topic but not specific to a stock chirping from me, so beware and tolerate...or not.
Last night my bright ass decided that we'd go by boat to my insurance agency owner friends house to have dinner. This is a 8-ish mile boat trek which is hampered by the fact that my wife has just gotten a second bunion surgery. Let me tell you something, these bunion surgeries are painful and long-recovery things. Life sort of gets shut down for someone well over 50 who had one of these operations and they need assistance.
Logistical clear thinking and some work got us successfully boating there and we had a great time. Then just as we re-mounted the boat to go home all living hell broke out with winds and thunderstorms. Warm water and being able to go slow and stay close to shore (an easy swim should we sink- being silly but you know there's always the chance) made it somewhat humorously stressful to spend the hour plus of time on the journey.
We made it home and I got her into the house engaging one wet slippery place after another. We get this boat (we have a few) into the covered (normally dry but not last night with horizontal rain) with ease without having to get out to do anything...so that part worked well. But slippery and bunion work are't compatible at all.
But anyway the conversation, laced with $100 bottles of wine (I'm a light drinker but my friend isn't), got the chattin' both alive and revealing and for a while it went "business". Anyway his business is a very large (for North Carolina) insurance commission one, it is incredibly profitable (he has two multi-million dollar homes and is one of our largest local real estate owners), and he said again last night the big boys...especially AJ Gallagher...come calling every week. He says they come disguised at times...no not in some Trojan Horse manner of evil, but in forms of "come on dude...we're gunna give you so much money you don't know what to do with it all."
Anyway, I'm just telling you guys that this business, the one we too can invest in, continues to be slam-damn wonderful. Makes me endlessly wonder, and we discussed this last night, when it is going to end! When's Amazon "your profit is my gain" gunna come? My friend says he runs that issure through his mind all the time, yet he still thinks nothing is anywhere close to ruining this gravy train.
My guess is there will be something fairly soon (a year or two) that interrupts both the insurance pricing upturn and the stock prices too of the publicly traded US brokers. To me, for those not here yet, it will probably be a wonderful buying opportunity if, and only if, history repeats itself. My guess is history will repeat itself!
Generalized thinking such as this isn't much credited with being significant as to making money investing. We go into great detail often and my past is literally full of massive invasive accounting projects that I did to determine investment potential. Over time I moved on some from this, I saw far too many others making hay without huge amounts of work or analysis. And I got my lifelong biggest eye-opening realizing that selling too soon was the typical investors worst mistake particularly if made on a basis of "the PE is 25....oh boy gotta run for the hills" and such.
So I'm just slobbering around on a topic here, but it is one to keep on the shelf for use at some point for some of you. No spell check here, I'm conversationally rambling.
Thanks Dealraker for the story. 50% of the reason I bought the membership was for your commentary.
You have been following the industry much longer than I have. Has there been competitor or new entrant that has tried to threaten then industry, but been unsuccessful?
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Personally I’m not impressed with the average Americans ability to delay gratification, and live below their means. It’s pretty simple equation, but most don’t know how to.. so I am not surprised the % is so high. If you can do those two things it doesn’t matter if you get above average investment returns, or if you pay off your mortgage early doesn’t even matter.
Personally I paid my mortgage off very early. My first starter home I paid off in 10 years. Then we paid off our next bigger home in a year after rolling the proceeds from the starter home. The home is approximately 1/3 or our NW, and at first it annoyed me not just investing that money but over time I came to appreciate being 100% debt free. Having a really strong personal balance sheet makes life stress free, and I can stay fully invested easier.
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Since hearing about this I only buy high quality oil now. I’ve been meaning to get this book.
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Tiny add to CACI yesterday and today
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1 hour ago, dealraker said:
PayPal?
+1from a valuation perspective it makes sense.
I was thinking SCHW, but unsure about valuation on that one.
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I’ll check teck out.
For the most part small cap outperformance Usually lasts 2 years of less in GFC & 2020, but it rips off the bottom. Small cap value didn’t do well at all.
Homebuilders look attractive especially NVR it performed better off the bottom and did well long term.
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I agree but sizing it right probably helps. I’m always looking for that elusive cheap compounder but clearly it’s probably not the ideal strategy come a market panic since people flock to those.
I’ll have to do some back tests to see but I wonder if it makes sense especially in a 401k where most hold ETFs to rebalance to a small cap and small cap value during a big draw down to goose returns with a little less company specific risk. I wonder what the optimal holding time would be.
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6 hours ago, Saluki said:
MELI, CPRT, FFH, JOE, GOOG, SPGI, BRK, FICO.
FICO almost made my list, and probably would if it was a melt down like 07/08 it really got cheap and performed crazy well coming out due to the crazy multiple expansion.
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5 hours ago, bizaro86 said:
IMO, in a big crash you don't want quality businesses now trading at reasonable prices, you want junky businesses trading like they're going bankrupt in 5 minutes that will survive.
Eg. In March 2020 I bought ROST, IBKR, and GOOG. All are great businesses and were trading cheaply.
But I did way better buying TZOO (low quality travel business trading like it was going broke) and CVE 30 year debt trading at $0.50, taking a quick double, and then rolling the profits into COST to get quality.
Anyway, next time that happens I'm more likely to try to find super-cheap stuff than buy quality on sale. I think screens like "P/S down more than 50% from 5 year average" would be the way to go.
That has been on my mind. Over time I have come around to maybe adding in more cyclical businesses that have good balance sheets. I was thinking of adding things like homebuilders to the list and maybe DOOO to the list. The quality less cyclical names didn’t get quiet cheap enough, and I wasn’t prepared to buy the less quality stuff in 2020. A screen would probably have helped for the really junky stuff.
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5 minutes ago, ValueArb said:
Patron Silver.
If you said Johnny blue I’d have been right with you.
Share your Portfolio 2024
in General Discussion
Posted
I only reallocated once when I started this new approach. I didn’t have to but I just wanted each position to be equal to what my new contributions would be. I had a much more concentrated portfolio before a lot of it was in BRK and a couple others. I won’t rebalance from here on out I will let the winners run and losers fade away.