thedanmancan

Thanks for the comments to-date, I've updated the spreadsheet at this link and included some historical data. The sheet should automatically update daily after market close as well. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12Dr-mHjdJ68XDXc141YJq5PN_qIcgVZ-FS5XvT5N7FU/edit?usp=sharing Happy using and more comments welcome!

https://www.sedarplus.ca/csa-party/records/document.html?id=9110d1b9853338bf296dd4d6977cb4a0b7b006301ac7e35a931836ed5cfa3da1 Interesting investment in the commodities/cleantech royalty space, one of the directors is the FNV founder

Yes that is correct. And this is also before dealing with the effects of the Poseidon sale ie the reduction in value is even greater taking that into account

Hi! I created a spreadsheet (thanks Claude!) that gets "live" data from Google Finance to track the daily fluctuations in Fairfax's public securities book vs the last reported 13F/10-Q. Feel free to access it and let me know what you think! Have given "comment" rights to everyone https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wg2oKy6VsgrQuaRrSpSoJCpsvpgnpipyvG4qm-TnuRg/edit?gid=490300723#gid=490300723

Thank you, just sense checking this please, I see on CEO.ca: - 89,588 shares cancelled dated 31 Dec 2025 (assume reported as part of FY2025 - 101,124 shares cancelled dated 27 Feb 2026 - 217,223 shares cancelled dated 31 Mar 2026 - Total for FY2026 YTD - 318,347 shares Could I check where the 54k shares is from please?

Can someone please explain why FFH continues to carry the run-off book? I get that the aim is for investment returns from the float to more than compensate for the losses on the book but isn’t this inconsistent with their stated goal of underwriting profitability? Why don’t they sell the book off and instead has expressed interest expanding it? Maybe one to ask about at the AGM. I am currently not able to make this year’s. Hope to be able to go someday and meet some/all of you!

Hi @John Hjorth, thanks for the welcome! No real reason behind my handle other than my name being Daniel Just curious how people think about position sizing for FFH? If one uses the usual starting point of 1/2 of the Kelly Criterion = mean (excess return) /variance): - assume excess return is 15% less 4% risk free rate - variance - using historical volatility on IBKR of 32% - optimal allocation = 53.7% If one uses a more conservative fraction (eg CRRA of 3 or 4 per The Missing Billionaires - which despite the title is a surprisingly interesting book) that is still about 27% (for fraction of 4) - 35.8% (for fraction of 3). If one expects the excess return to be even higher eg 20%+ per various analyses on this board and the volatility to be even lower given the Fairfax bid on the stock due to buybacks etc then this could be > 100% of one's portfolio implying that one should buy the stock on margin, and given these levels of excess return could potentially justify the cost of the margin loan I'm familiar with the various principles of not using too much leverage, not relying too much on math models etc but just wanted to discuss the direction of travel of the math vs how one might be thinking about position. Thanks in advance!

https://www.fairfax.ca/press-releases/fairfax-agrees-to-sell-a-portion-of-its-interest-in-poseidon-corp-2026-03-10/ fyi please, price of ~$28 almost 2x of CV of $15

Does anyone have an idea how Prem gets to $150 per share in the 2025 shareholder letter please? Applying his figures I get: Underwriting Profit - $1,500,000,000 Interest and Dividend income - $2,500,000,000 Share of profits of Associates + Non-insurance subsidiaries - $1,000,000,000 Total Operating Income - $5,000,000,000 FY2025 interest expense - $(822,000,000) FY2025 corporate overheads - $(480,500,000) per page 166 of FY2025 AR Profit before tax - $3,698,500,000 Taxes @ 22% - $(813,670,000) Profit after tax - $2,884,830,000 less: Series K Preference Share dividend - $(8,844,000) - Notional CAD$237,500,000 @ 5.05%, USD/CAD rate ~ 1.356 less: Minority Interest (assume 10%) - $(288,483,000) Profit to FFH shareholders - $2,587,503,000 Number of shares outstanding @ 31 Dec 2025 - 20,856,086 Earnings per share - $124.06 Difference - $(540,909,900)

Hi there, I think most of this information is set out in the Digit Prospectus (search for "CCPS") (https://www.godigit.com/content/dam/godigit/general/investor-relations/euclid/project-euclid-prospectus-may-17-2024-final-filing-version.pdf). Some interesting points to note: "The issued, subscribed and paid-up share capital of Go Digit Infoworks Services Private Limited as on the date of this Prospectus is as follows: Particulars Aggregate value at face value 1,022,934 equity shares of ₹ 10 each 10,229,340 7,800,000 CCPS of ₹ 1,000 each 7,800,000,000 Total 7,810,229,340*" - this is a big difference from the estimated FV of the CCPS in Fairfax's books but note that Fairfax's methodology uses a DCF, which given the high discount rate (12%) would imply that their estimates of cash flow are very high - which we can compare vs the financials set out in the prospectus. - I wonder how the IPO would change the FV of the CCPS given there's now an indirect public MTM (since the CCPS can be converted into Digit's (listed) equity. The conversion ratios suggest a very big mark down of the FV of the CCPS - though the FV would then be the higher of the equity conversion and the face value of the CCPS. "The key terms of the CCPS are: (i) the CCPS holder is entitled to cumulative preferential dividend of 12.3% per annum on the face value of the CCPS in each financial year, however to the extent any CCPS are converted into equity shares of GDISPL, there is no dividend which is due or payable on such CCPS, (ii) if GDISPL declares any dividend or other distribution to its holders of equity shares, the CCPS holder is also entitled to the aggregate amount of dividend or other distribution which it would have received if it were the holder of the maximum number of equity shares into which its CCPS can be converted, on the record date for such distribution, (iii) no dividend or distribution will be paid or declared in respect of any equity shares of GDISPL if, and to the extent that, as a consequence of such dividend or distribution, any CCPS holder would be entitled to dividend greater than the maximum amount permitted to be paid in respect of CCPS of an Indian company held by a non-resident under applicable laws; (iv) the maximum tenure of the CCPS is 20 years from the date of issuance, unless extended by the CCPS holder, subject to applicable law; (v) in terms of the JV Amendment Agreement, the CCPS has a fixed conversion ratio for conversion into equity shares of GDISPL being (i) 2.324 CCPS for each equity share, for 6,300,000 CCPS; and (ii) 3.55 CCPS for each equity share for the remaining 1,500,000 CCPS, subject to the maximum permissible limit under applicable laws and the provisions of the JV Agreement, and would be cumulatively converted such that the CCPS holder holds equity shares of GDISPL representing up to a maximum of 82.07% of the share capital of GDISPL. Further, consequent to conversion of the CCPS, the indirect shareholding of FAL in our Company (on a fully diluted basis) will be a maximum of up to 68.65%. Further, upon conversion of the CCPS, none of our Promoters shall cease to act as promoters of our Company."