persistentone3
-
Posts
2 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by persistentone3
-
-
Sonae would look very interesting below €40¢. They are more of a conglomerate business model with several different footprints. The main attraction is Sonae MC and is the market leader in Portugal for food retail (groceries) with dominates locations.
My main problem with Sonae MC would be too much of earnings stream seems to come inside Portugal. If you believe that Portugal will leave Euro, the resulting currency will be worth about 1/3rd of the Euro and aren't most of Sonae's new earning streams in that new devalued currency?
How much of the Sonae MR brand is being sold to North America, Asia, and Northern Europe?
-
Of course!!
I went through the Portuguese market A-Z about a year ago and it's probably worth going through again. Portugal is an easy market to do this with, I think there are 65 stocks, so not a ton of work.
I ended up buying two (and selling one)
Corticeira Amorim - Cork company, they have a monopoly on cork products, a large market share in wine stoppers as well. I bought on the thesis this is a company with a solid moat, nice ROE/ROA for a nice, EV/EBIT of 5x. The company's since had a 40% run up, but earnings have driven it. Still selling at about EV/EVIT of 5x or 6x. 85% of operations/sales are outside of Portugal, this got dragged in the mud undeservedly.
Novabase - A IT consulting company that was selling at EV/EBIT of 2 or 3 (don't remember exactly). They had divested a money losing TV division which was clouding their previous results. They were 75% domestic and 25% international. I ended up selling because earnings dropped like a rock, margins shrunk and it the international expansion stalled out. I misjudged demand, I had thought I was buying a company operating at trough demand, that wasn't the case.
Great work Nate and thanks for putting out that list.
What I am looking for is a list of peripheral European stocks that get at least 50% of their profits from outside the periphery. In other words I want to find strong exporters in the peripheral European countries.
My investment thesis is that when the periphery leaves the Euro - which I think is likely within three years - that these stocks will get crushed as these countries revert to historical currencies. But if the earnings stream is largely exempted from the devaluation (i.e., 60% of the business is in dollars from North America) then those will be buying opportunities shortly after the devaluation occurs.
Can you think of any strong exporters in the periphery?
opportunities in portugal?
in General Discussion
Posted
Hey Plan. Example of foreign operations might be Portugal Telecom's ownership of a Brazilian wireless vendor. Not crazy about that particular subsidiary, but something along those lines.
This place looks better than Yahoo with all of its psychobabble. :) My only complaint so far is the registration process makes a jail breakout from Alcatraz look easy by comparison. But got past that nightmare...