brobro777
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Posts posted by brobro777
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1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:
Forget eggs - your best bet is that the 30yr treasury just today took a time machine back to levels not seen since 2011.
Watch out for 30yr T levels last seen when Rhianna was singing about Umbrellas!
I always figured that inflation would be comparatively low over time due to technological advances making everything constantly more efficient and declining birth rates everywhere and I still believe that but maybe this disruptive adjustment period will go on far longer than people expect. In addition, like Greg said, governments can do a lot of dumb things that makes everything worse...
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1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:
Let's see - from what I can see the July CPI is the last 'easy' print that was 'in the can' so to speak.
Moving forward beginning with August CPI the rubber is hitting the road........headline progress will need to be matched by actual and underlying progress on supercore....the progress here, has been modest to say the least....but won't deny in the last couple of prints there has been some encouraging but very modest moves down these need to continue and in fact accelerate.
Well one data point I can provide from Los Angeles is that egg prices have come down to $4.99 a dozen from $6.99, but $4.99 is still higher than $2.99 pre-COVID prices.
Hopefully that means good things for my QQQ puts!!!!
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Oh man it would be so cool if NQ drops 2000 points in month or something
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2 hours ago, Gregmal said:
They’re hedges, the only problem with them losing money is if you aren’t making money. When they work I expect my broader portfolio to be declining, and when they work I structure them so they should pay out multiples of the capital I commit which allows me to then redeploy it at much lower levels. The $210s should 5x on a 20% correction.
Yea yea, just keep posting so I can continue to make money off your ideas
Just keep going bro
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1 hour ago, Gregmal said:
Added a good slug of Jan MGK 210 puts as an insurance policy on Wiley Coyote.
Haha the Roadrunner cartoons were great
I'll probably lose money on my QQQ put options but maybe I'll get lucky and big cap tech will crack
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Sold some put options in Citigroup
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Even more Nintendo
All that time I spent playing Contra and Blades of Steel on my NES have to mean something
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Bought more Nintendo
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Bought some QQQ put options
Like moth to a flame, I couldn't stay away
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Bought some PTON
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58 minutes ago, Whensthepaintdry? said:
Ha, You can go bet on the Yellow company, If you want to bet on a bankrupt company going to the moon. Even insiders are buying.
Hey that could work. I was thinking I might take a shot in Peloton, which I always thought had brand value. More importantly though, I have a friend who lost money in this during the big decline from 2021-2022 and it would be awesome to make money in PTON and rub it in his face, haha
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Come on guys, all I wanna do is short 50 NQ Futures and make 2000 points each contract so I can get back at those bastards at Reddit who made 20X off Carvana calls!
Stop ruining my dreams!
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Maybe markets will keep running to SPX 5000 to end of year. Huge $3Tril companies at 30X with risk free rates at 5% probably means mediocre returns over the next 10 years but it can just keep going for now and hey, maybe the stranglehold AAPL has the younger people means 30X is justified
Perhaps it's not late to make a shotgun bet on a basket of beaten down garbage - Carvana makes me mad jelly
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10 hours ago, Libs said:
That Bloomberg article is eye-opening. QQQ puts ARE cheap. ATM (385) December 2025's are at $35. So if QQQ drops from 380 to 345 you break even. That's just a 10% drop. And you have ~28 months!
If QQQ retraces to where it started 2023- at 260- you make 2.8 to 1 at expiry.
Meanwhile the ATM Dec 2025 calls cost twice as much: $70. Yikes!
I may dabble in this.
Anyone have other hedging ideas?
P.S. Not experienced in this. Do your own math
https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/calculator/long-call.html
I think you're probably right about those options and plays like that could pay off but things now feel like 2006 when I kept shorting just to get my ass kicked over and over
And the nagging question remains - Damnit why didn't I just 10X my money in 6 months with Carvana this year...
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Oh man I want to short the market so bad
I guess I have no choice but to add to my position in Philip Morris
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I understand you guys love to do touchdown celebrations everyday about how much Altria sucks but think about how good the underlying business must be to survive management that terrible and incompetent!
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38 minutes ago, Gregmal said:
Yea as much as I wanna buy it and put it away Im trading about 30% of the position cuz I do agree theres gonna be volatility with all the news around this one. But good start nonetheless. Its dirt cheap.
Good point, some judge could deny 3M's motion to dismiss and the stock drops 10% and then the stock recovers on a favorable ruling, up and down, up and down... -
On 6/9/2023 at 10:26 AM, Gregmal said:
Started some MMM.
Going off today
Good call, thanks for the idea
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24 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:
OT -
Digging into this book about Spirax- Sarco, which you can order for free (!) from the company. Ordered it a week or so ago and it just arrived today. My wife thinks I am crazy.
https://spiraxhistory.subscription.expert/
Holy moly that looks like a lot of complicated, annoying reading
I'll just stick to the few things I know, like BTI cigarettes!
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15 minutes ago, Saluki said:
Bezos had an interesting take on the internet many years ago. He analogized it to electricity. When people got electricity into their houses, they only used it for light. Then they figured out other things they could do with it like a washing machine, then a radio, then a TV. So the internet, he said, was only in it's early innings. It's entirely possible that AI will continue to improve and do things that we can't even envision now. But like the internet, there are winners and losers. Amazon won, and arguably consumers, because by putting all the retailers online, it drove down margins and wiped out a lot of retail. So early retailers thought it was great until everyone else showed up. If you are a copyrighter or graphic designer this is scary. When Apple started using multiple fonts and automatic Kerning, the work of a lot of low level typesetters and graphic designers disappeared overnight. Instagram filters make it easier to take pictures so it's harder to be a photographer, but easier to be an influencer.
Like the early internet, it may be hard to pick the winners. Where is Pets.com and where is Netscape? But like the gold rush, the people selling the picks and shovels will probably do well. So maybe not ChatGPT, but the servers (AWS, GOOG, MSFT) where the data is stored, or the chips needed to make AI work by crunching the numbers. The problem is that everyone knows this. So is it better to buy now and put it your coffee can portfolio or wait till the next tech crash like in 2000, when AMZN was selling for single digits per share?
That seems to be a whole lot of things to know now, on top of all the things to know in the future as the variables constantly change. I'd understand making a bet if interest rates were 0% or these techs were trading at 10PE like MSFT in 2011, but now with risk free rate at 5%? Hoo boy...
The fact that people are rushing headfirst into these things with a huge list of uncertainty to pop NVDA $200Bil in one day makes me think we're at year 2000!
I wouldn't be surprised if I turn out to be completely wrong though, haha
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Boy look at all them Trillions. What they think, trillions grow on trees?
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12 minutes ago, KCLarkin said:
Just looked at the start and OP was actually pretty good at calling the top. Question is whether he got long again. Calling the top is only half the battle. Getting back in at or near the bottom is even harder.
I have a simple rule: if Keynes couldn't time the market, I am not even going to try...
Absolutely, you don't want to be like that Hussman dude who's been "defensive" for over a decade after 2008. I think the average annual return for 10 years in one of his funds is like -3% or something, oof
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Boy this calling the top business is tough. Thank goodness I've taken enough ass kickings over the years to stay away from shorting!
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50 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:
Good podcast here about Japanese stocks:
https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/podcasts/episodes/07-11-23-kirk.html
New factors are
TSE encouraging companies which trade below book to do something
- Inflation starting to creep up (wages, goods)
- Slow motion restructuring of Japanese companies (governance, capital allocation, de-conglomerization etc). This has kicked off during the Abenomics phase and while slow moving seems to go in the right direction.
- Buffett bought Japan (via the trading houses).
The Abenomics boom from 2013-2017 sort of flamed out - the last post here in this thread came at the tail end of it, but maybe now it the time to take another look.
Disclosure: I own two japanese small/midcaps but very small in size.
I think you're right. The zaitech losses from the bubble days are probably all cleared and gone and after years of dominance of software (led by the Americans), manufacturing (especially the high value kind that Japan and Europe tend to dominate) could become more important. Plus, Japanese companies appear to be becoming more shareholder friendly (e.g. Nintendo seems to be doing this).
I'm too dumb and lazy to find individual winners so I'd probably buy a Nikkei 225 ETF or something
With all the current rage about AI and software, it would be pretty funny if manufacturing, Japan, and stuff like tobacco outperform during the next 10 years, haha
Have We Hit The Top?
in General Discussion
Posted
Oh yea underinvestment in capacity is a good point.
And then there is stuff like the years of delay in building a Target that I used to drive by for years - https://la.curbed.com/2018/12/20/18150750/hollywood-target-husk-construction-starting-decision
Government regulations, Fed keeping the cost of capital high, and factors like the Target litigation above can keep things expensive and result in boom/busts in inflation that TwoCities noted. And hey, maybe this up and down volatility can last 10 years, why not?