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brobro777

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Posts posted by brobro777

    Why Do Investors Feel Entitled to Every High Water Mark?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Well it's because people aren't investors and they want a lot of money really fast without hard work or discipline

     

    I have a buddy who opened an Etrade account back in the 90s because they were offering some kind of bonus and he bought Viropharma for less than $20 and sold it at $100 because the company said some news about the common cold. And ETrade kept crediting his account with this supposed one time bonus over and over again and when he pointed out the mistake, they let him keep all the money 

     

    That's the way life should be, money for nothing and chicks for free, so why shouldn't they be entitled to the high water mark? They deserve it!

     

     

     

    Mental Models for Investment

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I dunno about mental models but what works good for idea generation is to bet against dumbasses. I pay attention when these guys talk, as it's usually a good idea to take the other side. It's kind of amazing how reliably wrong these guys are - like 15 years later they're wrong yet again.

     

    And I apply this to myself too. Sometimes I will look at brokerage statements from 11 years ago to remind myself how dumb I was with some industry or company and go, well, I was a moron then and I'm probably the same moron now when it comes to this industry, so I guess I'll just stay away. That saved my ass a few times over the years

     

     

    What are you buying today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    23 hours ago, cash_incinerator said:

     

    Ag Commodities go through these cycles.  We're not looking at permanently higher cacao prices.  In a few years (at most) prices will crash and hsy and the rest of the chocolate makers will keep retail prices as they are, scooping huge margins.  I want this to get worse so hsy gets absolutely crushed on margins in the near term.  Best time to buy will be when it's trading at 50x, cacao is at 10000, and hsy is at 130 or so.  I own shares now cause that's not a certainty, but easy to get bigger and bigger as it goes lower on ozyempic/ cacao price news.

     

    This is good stuff, thanks man

     

     

    Have We Hit The Top?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Gregmal said:

    I kinda have a theory too that with the spread of inequality and wealth concentration there’s a FUBU element that’s much more prevalent in what I’d call tier 1 assets. Real estate, stocks, private businesses. These are things for rich people, run by rich people, and increasingly becoming scarce. There is a finite number of places to put money. Debt is largely for suckers. Think pension funds and entities that need a return but aren’t practical about maximizing it. So real assets and things of value just continue to get sucked up. Think Hamptons parcels that were owned by normal folks, then sold for cash to middle class folks, who then got cashed out by developers, that then sold to families who put it in a trust and use it one month a year….

     

    So my loosely held belief is that over time this adds to the bid under quality stocks. More “cash/money/currency” less “place to put it”. 

     

    Well I did have a neon yellow FUBU jacket back in the 90s

     

    I did

     

    What is your approach?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    My approach focuses on recognizing that I am not smart enough to come up with good ideas and I am too lazy to put in the work necessary to get brilliant insights. 

     

    So I try to free ride on other people's good ideas. Who has good ideas? This is a personal observation but I think people who know what they're talking about tend to readily admit to what they don't know - it seems they know what they know and they really know what they don't know. 

     

    Another way to get good ideas is to find guys who always buy at the top, kinda like the shoeshine boy giving stock tips to Joseph Kennedy, and bet against them

     

     

    HELOC arbitrage

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    10 hours ago, Intelligent_Investor said:

    Tbh churning CC rewards is probably higher ROI given there are methods you can float the spend

     

    Yea bank bonuses are good but real deal are the credit card bonuses. I remember years ago cashing out a ton of Amex MR points via Charles Schwab at 1.25 cents per point. And no taxes to pay unlike bank bonuses! That was pretty good haha

     

     

    Insider Trading?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    All I can tell about insider trading in the US (and other countries too, it seems) is that the authorities will go after pikers and make examples out of them so they can give each other high fives and promotions while the whales laff to the bank

     

    Martha Stewart as exception? Maybe but more likely in the making an example category

     

     

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