Hielko

http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/

How would you distinguish a real mistake from a hindsight bias? :) When I see a lot of risky stuff that didn't work out I'm going for the bias option. Perhaps it was still a mistake, but probably for a different reason than "it didn't work out". SpecOps only post that is the exception IMHO.

This thread mostly looks like a case study in hindsight bias.

He's valuing the earnings power of the insurance business, how big/small the assets/liabilities are not relevant for that exercise. I agree with him that just taking the insurance assets at face value and ignoring the liabilities paints an overly optimistic picture. No matter how you slice it, there are tons of regulatory restrictions on the float that makes it worth less than a dollar of cash at the hold co level (and of course, you sometimes need it to actually pay insurance claims).

Think this is starting to look interesting. Clearly a 13% discount is not sustainable if you are in the business of buying fund just like that and then agitate for change to shrink the discount.

That's called being lucky.

And what would have been their reason for buying those stocks? Why wouldn't they just buy the S&P index? So, apparently they do think that they have a variant perception. If you call every buy decision having "variant perception" then this phrase becomes meaningless. I think it is a largely meaningless phrase for everybody who tries to outperform the market, but the good thing I guess is that it forces you to look at a stock from two sides. You have to make it explicit where you think your edge is.

And what would have been their reason for buying those stocks? Why wouldn't they just buy the S&P index? So, apparently they do think that they have a variant perception.

I bought my first individual stock in 2010, consider this the point where I really started investing. I did have a meaningful amount of money in various mutual funds since 2007 though, so perhaps you could also say that I started there.

You should choose based on your career not for general knowledge. Get an intermediate accting book if you want to learn accting. Also read financials statements as they usually explain their method of accting for certain relevant transactions. What if your career is full time private investor? Fwiw I'm a full time investor and got cfa lvl 1 and 2 (and hopefully 3) and thought that the first two level were pretty decent for someone without any relevant previous education in finance. Lvl 1 is very broad and general while lvl 2 has a lot of accounting, corporate finance and equity valuation. Lvl 3 is totally useless

Okay. Where? You can take the Sealand option I thought that you guys had the answers. Why are you asking a socialist who likes it the way it is? You've got at least five people here who agree with you. They are all probably pretty rich this being CoBF. Presumably you can find more rich and educated people who agree with you. Find some poor country that would sell you an island or something. I'll visit when you guys have that futuristic thing with robo dogs. You can even charge me admission (just don't call it a tax, no no). Many tried, no-one will sell even a desolate rock at an insane valuation if it means giving up sovereignty of that rock. War is the only way to start something outside of existing sovereignty it seems :(

Ok, but if you don't know how Italy would have looked without the EU can you really say that it would have been better? Fwiw: I don't know that the answer is...

I don’t know where you live… So I guess your country has benefited much from this “so-called” EU… And I won’t speak for Greece, nor Spain, nor Portugal, nor France, because I have never lived there (actually I have lived in Barcelona for two year, but let’s disregard that!)… I speak for Italy though: if you think this “so-called” EU, or worse still the Euro!, have “brought jobs, well being and prosperity” to Italy… well then, believe me, you have no idea what you are talking about. Cheers, Gio Any idea how Italy would have looked outside the EU?

Greece will probably be the example that shows that leaving is a bad idea

long term buy & hold isn't the only viable strategy.

~50x day.

The flip side of that argument is that you don't need a lot of money looking at micro/small caps to remove inefficiencies. The market cap of all small caps combined is probably less than that of Apple.

Why not rent instead of buying back? Seems that it is pretty cheap based on this thread.

It a performance based fee as I understand it. What if you have a 1% fee, but decide to waive it (because you think your performance wasn't good enough?)

I suppose not. Democracy is the system based on the theory "there are more of us than there are of you, so do what we say or else". The political manifestation of might makes right. Yes there are more people who think like you than who think like me, and yes the threat of violence from the majority is what keeps me paying my taxes. Force is additive while things like intelligence, empathy, and morality are not. It is the tragedy of the human condition. You are stronger so for now you win. How do you think democracy got to be the system that is used in a large part of the world and the libertarian system that you would like to see doesn't exist? I'd say it is a dominated strategy that will always lose versus many other systems that can be used to organize society. Isn't the fact that you cannot successfully start your own libertarian society also the proof that the system cannot work? How would the libertarian society for example maintain/defend itself against someone building an empire, and forcing everybody inside its influence circle to pay taxes? It would also need an army. But how could it create a sufficiently big enough army if not everybody would be required to pay for it? And how would stuff like property work? Can property exist if there isn't some central authority that can decide (and enforce!) who owns what? What would you do if your neighbor thinks murder is a fun hobby? Is there a law against that? Can he be forced to comply with the law? Who decides what the law is? If you have no money to buy protection is it fine that you get murdered? Can these problems be solved without recreating the systems that exist today?

I would suggest looking for brk threads in the brk sub forum, ffh threads in the ffh sub forum and value stock ideas in the investment ideas sub forum..... This section is called general chat for a reason.

Was thinking about operating cash flow

no, you get 200k. Operating earnings is after tax

Operating income includes taxes

Agreed that as at today, block chain IS inefficient, and that IS a problem - but it is NOT a show stopper. The solutions mechanics are routinely applied in other applications. SD There is no solution - and I doubt that there ever will be - and they are certainly not routinely applied in other applications. You fail to understand that the block chain is only secure because of its inefficiency, and distributed security/trust is the only thing the block chain does. They are two inseparable properties.