When looking at protein inflation, you have to consider:
- Which protein are you talking about? The price elasticities of chicken, pork, and beef among others is different. Referring to an old Tyson investor presentation. For beef, for example, this is the more elastic of the three. All else equal, it seems that price inflation would hurt the demand side of protein more. Not all proteins are created equal.
- In the supply chain, there are only a few processors though feedlots are becoming more consolidated as well. It seems as though the processors will act rationally and squeeze out the feedlots as has been done in the past. Referring to cattle / beef mostly.
- As far as I understand, restaurants have long-term contracts for meat. Let's say PF Chang's has a year contract. They will most likely try to pass this to the consumer.
I think processors would feel pressure especially from retailers like Wal-Mart to keep prices low as they feel pressure from the end user. Unless there is a way to hedge, these processors might not be able to pass along price increases to all their customers. End consumers would surely feel the heat as well. However, processors have a bit of leverage over feedlots so I'm not as concerned on that front.