hardincap

The ability to separate the reality of a situation against what a stock price says is the primary reason my net worth exceeded the million dollar mark in my early 30's. Avoid using the stock price as a proxy for value, avoid using price fluctuations as a gauge of what is good/bad news. This is a philosophy that people either live by or don't. One can't be a successful value investor (or special situation investor if you want to call it that) by only believing this philosophy half-way. alot of people on this board including myself hit 7 figure net worth before 30s. i dont think its fair to preach any one strategy over another because there are many ways to invest successfully. re: ignoring price fluctuations, many value investors respect the markets to some degree. even ben graham had a policy where if the price doesnt move in X number of years he gets out, despite his conviction on intrinsic value.

"You catch more flies with honey than you do with vinegar”. #fanniegate-rs should take note

@luke, if they can't win any cases, what are their alternatives? at that point settling for 5% is better than zero

@rros Im "jumping the gun and spreading misinformation" even though what I posted was correct?

I do not know how long have you been holding but myself and others have held since 2010, long before BB got involved and distinctly remember when he opened positions. If I remember correctly, at the time, all shares purchased were around 100 +/- million for all classes having used around $450/500 mill of his funds on 2,5 bill face value. In this last report he is holding: 58,317,184 59,908,659 --------------- 118,225,843 total shares So before jumping the gun and spreading misinformation do some research. I am too lazy to look up his original purchases but Wayne can probably add a line here. BTW, he is up in terms of dollars. Not counting the money he says he has made trading around the core. ? compare the two reports: http://www.fairholmefundsinc.com/Reports/Funds2017SemiAnnual.pdf http://www.fairholmefundsinc.com/Reports/Funds2016Annual.pdf

bruce has reduced stake: http://www.fairholmefundsinc.com/Reports/Funds2017SemiAnnual.pdf

+1. get used to living in an unfair and irrational world

good reminder why the legal route looks grim. i think longs seriously need to consider the increasing likelihood that all lawsuits fail

http://www.valueplays.net/2017/07/26/carney-tries-and-fails-to-claim-the-nyt-and-rolling-stone-smeared-ugoletti/ ed demarco did not flea to ecuador, he's in the states leading FSR sometimes you have to tune out loonies on both sides

i wouldn't count on it. brown is ultra ayn rand level conservative, something of a dying breed. in her own words, "there are so few true conservatives left in America that we probably should be included on the endangered species list. That would serve two purposes: Demonstrating the great compassion of our government and relegating us to some remote wetlands habitat where — out of sight and out of mind — we will cease being a dissonance in collectivist concerto of the liberal body politic."

im not clear on how the docs help us other than in getting media attention, given that perry judges ruled that justification is irrelevant also, for those who thought sessions would help us, its looking quite likely he'll resign soon. rex is also reportedly considering resigning. will mnuchin last?

according to cnbc, ben carson recently said in an interview he wouldnt be opposed to investors getting paid timing of moelis is a clue that things are heating up

+1. as trump would say, sad!

who does x? who is they?

buffer will be shocking -> X happens -> utility model and new offering? what is X?

?? who in the world would buy newly issued preferreds?

the takeaway I got from videos of watt's testimony and the house finance committee talking about the gses is they havent a clue how to mortgage finance actually works, and so they get stuck on political talking points. indeed thats the very reason we're in this mess after 9 years. who breaks this deadlock? if you're long f&f, you have to believe mnuchin will, if not administratively then by building a political alliance from the inside. this is not going to be "reasonably fast"

"nws will remain above the "relatively small" buffer" any indication of this? i havent seen watt say anything other than he might omit dividends. "Ryan said he couldn’t specify how much capital would be needed, but that it would be a relatively small amount to deal with the risk of short-term losses." Matt Scully‏ @scullymb 21h21 hours ago More FHFA's Bob Ryan emphasizes that capital buffer push for Fannie, Freddie is not meant to recapitalize the GSEs. Build buffer, then sweep.

its pretty clear now that mnuchin underestimated the political challenges of fixing f&f when he said it can be done reasonably quickly (mclean was right about that). signs point to it taking much longer than even he anticipated. watt implementing a cap buffer changed little; nws will remain above the "relatively small" buffer

i haven an opinion, but would like to hear yours first :)

@luke, im not so sure, given #fanniegate's history of wild accusations, jumping to conclusions, conspiracy theories, passing off speculation as fact, and ad hominem attacks against anyone who expresses anything even remotely anti gse or court cases. its become pretty sad and pathetic. they brand themselves as seeking truth and justice but lets be honest, most of them are really a bunch of wreckless gamblers trying to get rich quick

btw, no corker didnt storm out to "probably cover his short". he had another vote to attend as crapo explained. its amazing to me how delusional and cult-like #fanniegate has become.. like straight out of cialdini's "psychology of influence"

not much changed today imo. we got to see a bit of the drama happening behind curtains but what really matters is phillips and mnuchins testimonies and their recommendations to trump on housing reform

Tax reform has been pushed back to eoy/early 18, so slim chance for housing reform to pass before the gses run out of capital. Watt will want to start rebuilding before it actually reaches zero. Shareholders are not out of the woods yet though, we still need to see what reform looks like

watt has finally revealed his trump card (no pun intended). im still unclear how things will work out with housing reform, but the path of least resistance seems to be based on letting f&f rebuild capital first and foremost