racemize
-
Posts
2,831 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by racemize
-
-
Saw this on twitter—any insurance insiders have any comments?
-
I guess getting back to the multiple of book value trading question. In all honesty, if you are a permanent holder, you don't want it to trade at 2x book value. In fact, you want it to trade as low as possible for as long as possible, so they can buy back shares. Trading higher does nothing good for you, unless you 1) want to sell; or 2) want them to issue shares to buy other companies I guess.
-
I mean the real issue is that if anything like the last 10 years happens again, it should not trade at 2x book value.
-
50 minutes ago, vinod1 said:
Almost! 20 percent! increase! in! exclamation! points! from! 2021 AL!
27 to 32!!!!!!!!
This is by far the most important metric to track.
-
The problem with these very high IV calculations is that it really kills growth generally. I.e., you had more growth when using BV/share because you were getting the leverage from the investments/share. If you calculate IV at investments/share, then you have lost leverage, and it grows more slowly. I've found that the added IV but lower growth pretty much offsets. Happy to be wrong here though.
-
Let's not start talking about them shorting equities again please. PTSD for all of us.
-
I’ve got a word searchable compilation that will have it if they said it in an annual meeting (or some other places that were transcribed). Link to compilations:
austinvaluecapital.com/resources
-
1 hour ago, glider3834 said:
I thought this article was interesting
“Credit spreads are too tight, they are not adequately reflecting the risk of recession. Other models that we use, whether it’s the yield curve or the macro-economic hard data are more bearish,” said Matthew Mish, head of credit strategy at UBS, adding that at some point “these need to converge.”
interesting that the same time, the mortgage spreads are very high.
-
1 hour ago, StubbleJumper said:
IRA? Check the tax section of the SIB circular and the Canada-US Tax Treaty to be sure, but when I exploit tenders from the other direction (ie, a US tender using a Canadian RRSP) there has been no withholding tax because the tax treaty exempts retirement accounts. For Canadians this presents an interesting twist because a Registered Retirement Savings Plan doesn't get dinged with the withholding tax on dividends, but our Tax-Free Savings Accounts do get dinged because the TFSA is not explicitly a retirement account (even though most of us do intend to use it for that purpose).
When FFH kicks out its annual dividend, have you experienced a withholding tax in your IRA?
SJ
Good point, yes, have not had any withholding from the annual dividend in that account, so probably would work for this.
-
It is not clear to me what the tax implications (e.g., Canadian withholding) if this is sold via a U.S. IRA. Any thoughts from board members?
-
1 hour ago, nwoodman said:
Don‘t underestimate ego and hubris in this position. The underlying premise in this investment was the value of the patents. That was tested earlier this year and was a wash, sorry “undisclosed”. They need to move on.
If they were basing it on the patent value, I wish they had talked to me. That was peak wireless patent price when those previous transactions went down (nortel and motorola). Experts would have known that at the time.
Also everyone out there saying “patent value” is a thesis (for virtually any stock) who isn’t in that specific patent space—don’t put too much weight on it. Patents are very tricky and fickle things.
-
Didn't mean to imply the short would be BB. I am interested in BB. Also, separately, interested in any short equity.
Refused to comment on BB, several questions on it.
All shorts closed.
-
wow, which one of you just went off on Prem on the call?
What was said?
Rough version:
Called in and told him he needed to step away, he wasn't paying attention anymore, and had lost his touch. Continued by saying that Prem didn't understand any of the companies he was investing in and wasn't doing any detailed analysis on microeconomics, his partners agreed but were Canadian so too nice to tell him, and the bankers were cowards not asking hard questions because Canada doesn't have enough good companies.
-
wow, which one of you just went off on Prem on the call?
-
The reality is that they need to kickstart the rebound so Biden can not only get credit for curing covid and cancer, but also saving the economy. Especially those of deep blue states. Notice how the news outlets are already declaring it "Biden's $2,000 stimulus checks"? Odd, because unless I am mistaken, one guy called for $2,000 checks, and it wasnt Joe, it wasnt Nancy, and it definitely wasnt Mitch.
Pelosi didn’t ask for $2k checks?
-
Apparently BB is making the rounds on various YOLO places, e.g., WSB, TikTok. (This is what I hear anyway)
-
I believe BAM was in warehousing/logistics first and sold it to BX or others. 2018 investor day transcript:
Maybe to help highlight that in a little more--it's always helpful to have real examples. About five years ago, we looked at industrial logistics warehouses, felt that it was a great place to put capital to work, and so we set up a dissembling a global logistics business through the acquisition of three companies in Europe and the United States. We then spent the next five years building the management team, resetting the focus of the business, selling out of markets that we thought were slower growth, and redeploying capital into higher growth markets. We increased rent by 16% over that period of time. We delivered over 20 million square feet of new development, and then over that same period of time, industrial went from being out of favor, to being probably the most highly sought-after real estate sector today.
And there is a consequence, the evaluation of this portfolio increased dramatically. We took advantage of that last year and sold our European platform for about five times what we paid for it originally. And by the end of this year, we'll also have disposed of the U.S. portion of the business as well with a similar result. So, in just five short years, we invested about $300 million into this business, and it will return close to a little over $1 billion to us, which can be redeployed into our other investment activities.
Five years is a relatively short time frame, sometimes it moves even quicker, so a couple of years ago, we looked at self-storage and decided this was an attractive sector for us to invest in. Similar to industrial, we assembled a 7 million square foot portfolio through a series of very small acquisitions and grew the portfolio to about 200 assets. Highly sought-after sector in high demand but highly fragmented ownership. And so, institutional investors have a lot of interest in investing in self-storage. There are relatively few portfolios out there for them to invest in scale. And so, what we did was we created this portfolio of 200 assets. We took the hundred assets that were in the markets that we felt offered the least upside. These were in the midwest and southeast, and actually sold them for roughly double what we paid for them as we were assembling this portfolio.
And, so today what we own is the remaining 100 assets in the higher growth markets, with zero capital invested in it. And so, obviously that’s going to generate a substantial amount of capital for us over the next couple of years as we continue to build that business up. And so, this is simple, it's repeatable, we often get asked about where we are in the real estate investment cycle. It doesn't matter in a lot of ways when these are the types of plans that you're undertaking. You need to know where you are. You adjust your strategy accordingly, but it doesn't mean that you stop investing when we're able to do these types of things.
-
The numbers are good. Maybe you can point where I made a mistake.
At least according to ycharts 2010 eps was around 13$ which would be a cagr of ~14%.
Don't know about ycharts. I used the 10-k. See attached.
Missing the stock split--in today's numbers it was $13.16
-
+1 pupil, surprised so many people reacting to the sale of less than 1% of a company that doesn't meet his requirements in the first place.
-
Viking, what's your short-term trade target here? Getting back to book value?
One idea, and I've switched to it, is just buying the preferreds. If you are aiming to get to book value, I'm assuming they will get back to $20-$25 (depending on the series) at the same or better pace than common.
Would you ever expect them to trade above par, given how low rates have gone? I need to look at the terms again.
No, just trading back to where they were in 2019 is sufficient. Meantime, 8% yield or so.
-
Viking, what's your short-term trade target here? Getting back to book value?
One idea, and I've switched to it, is just buying the preferreds. If you are aiming to get to book value, I'm assuming they will get back to $20-$25 (depending on the series) at the same or better pace than common.
-
Sanjeev, I'm curious as to what you think of the fact that insiders all all buying preferred shares rather than common shares?
They seem to have quite a bit of upside themselves these days...
-
I am a little concerned that they reported only 83M of losses related to the pandemic.
Whereas MKL reported 325M in business interruption etc. I am wondering how well they are reserving.
Their investment returns have been abysmal for this entire cycle everything from hedges to wrong stock picks to poor long term holdings here. So by now we have a balance sheet that is the most leveraged it been in a long time and I am not sure how well prepared they are for a big hit.
MKL has a lot more specialty policies than BRK I believe. And that's where language gets a little weird, as those are not standardized. I for example, have a policy from MKL (only 5%, as it was a lloyd's syndicate) that specifically covers business interruption when the government shuts you down for "an occurence of an identified human disease", with no pandemic exclusion language or addendum.
-
BPY was up until black out.
Fairfax 2024
in Fairfax Financial
Posted
could they do it via swaps and it not be reported?