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Showing content with the highest reputation on 02/27/2026 in Posts

  1. @Viking I think about 2026 and 2027 similar to you. But I am higher for diluted EPS, $200 for 2026 and $230 for 2027. Similar to you I think operating profit will be flattish and investment gains will be more moderate (relative to 2025), however, if you have no premium growth you can assume all the profits will be funnelled into buybacks. You will get shares outstanding go down by much more than 3-4%, closer to 8-10%. Conversely they could use that capital to do M&A (or buy out minorities), in that case top-pline will not be flat and grow more than we have assumed. Which explains my delta to your numbers. @MMM20 I will let Eigen come to his own conclusions. Personally, we have discussed on the board here, I think Fairfax should trade at ~2x book+ if you expect 15% ROE+. Right now it's closer to 1x book. Of course if it triples tomorrow and gets close to 3x book, most of us will be silly to not think of selling! But if it doubles tomorrow to 2x book I am comfortable holding on and gain from the EPS compounding. We have discussed before, it trades at much lower multiples than peers who have lower ROE's and most of them shorter track records. Bullish or not, I care about being accurate, rather than conservative or optimistic. To me it's pretty clear Fairfax is significantly mispriced relative to peers and on an absolute basis and shareholders will do very well from today with a 5 year + horizon.
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