'We'll definitely see the end of this recession this summer'

[link01]

in the interest of a balanced debate here's an optimist with a good track record & credentials:

 

<<Good news, everyone: The recession will end this summer.

 

The economic forecasting gauge with the best track record was positive in the past two weeks for the first time in nearly two years.

 

The Weekly Leading Index from the Economic Cycle Research Institute was up 2.1 percent when it came out June 25 and then up 4 percent Thursday.

 

"We'll definitely see the end of this recession this summer," ECRI managing director Lakshman Achuthan said Wednesday. "As unique and unprecedented as this recession has been, the transition to recovery is showing up in a textbook way in the leading indicator charts."

 

Achuthan said the recovery is also showing up in the longer, shorter and coincident indexes maintained by ECRI - plenty of evidence that it has a life of its own.

 

"When you have a pervasive move in the leading index as we have now, it suggests a more virtuous cycle that feeds on itself has begun," he said. >>

 

http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/business/article_48d2aa2d-bab0-57b7-b070-96c8e4697a9d.html

 

then again, martin feldstein is no slouch either:

 

Harvard’s Feldstein Sees Risk of ‘Double-Dip’ Recession in U.S.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3IpfKeeveVM

 

[oec2000]

While it is agreed that ECRI have a good long term track record in calling turns in the economic cycle, weren't they wrong in being very late to call the current downturn? Raises questions in my mind as to whether their models work well for garden variety cycles but not so well for 1 in 100 events like the one we are experiencing.

 

Perhaps someone who is a subscriber could confirm that they missed this downturn?

[link01]

While it is agreed that ECRI have a good long term track record in calling turns in the economic cycle, weren't they wrong in being very late to call the current downturn?

 

i think you're right. but remember that this was the most "forecast" recession we've had. everyone was predicting it. here was a cnn panel discussion back in jan08, Are We in Recession?

 

http://edition.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0801/13/cnnitm.01.html

 

and as late as apr08 the principles of ERCI said we were on track for a recession but they felt there  was a uniquie window of opportunity to avert it:

 

http://sify.com/finance/fullstory.php?id=14635339

 

http://www.businesscycle.com/