Iran/Israel conflict economy

[bttmline]

It seems more and more apparent every day that israel is going to bomb Iranian nuclear sites. We already are seeing the spike in oil prices, but not seeing a lot of media coverage in US. I guess I'm not feeling a lot of market concern about this?

[meiroy]

It seems more and more apparent every day that israel is going to bomb Iranian nuclear sites. We already are seeing the spike in oil prices, but not seeing a lot of media coverage in US. I guess I'm not feeling a lot of market concern about this?

 

No they won't, at least not by themselves. Not only is it probably beyond their scope of capability but even if they could they could not handle the aftermath, Iran does not need nuclear weapons to squash Israel the latter being really tiny compared to Iran. I think it's all a push in order to cause internal change in Iran, which might be coming in the following year.

[petec]

Israel is pretty tiny compared to all the Arab states, too, but it's won every time it's fought them.  But I agree that (if they have any sense) their poilcy is to encourage internal change.

[Arden]

Since when is war won by the size of the country?

 

It's just the opposite- larger countries are harder to defend.

 

How exatly will Iran "squash" Israel?

 

I also believe that even if Iran gets nuclear weapons they won't attack Israel. Israel is leading the world's anti-missile technology, and since it's so small and easy to defend- it's very very  likely that if Iran sends a nuclear missile, Israel will hit it while it's still above some arab country, and retaliate with some nukes of their own, which they have little chance to defend against. That will make Iran look kind of stupid, don't you think?

BTW, even if by some miracle they do hit Israel, Israel has several nuclear submarines that assure mutual destruction, and will "squash" Iran.

 

I think the ones that should be afraid are the neighboring arab countries. Their military power would mean nothing when Iran goes nuclear. That's is probably the main reason the US hasn't left Iraq yet.  Saudi arabia, Egypt, Iraq, should all be much more afraid than Israel.

 

[meiroy]

Since when is war won by the size of the country?

 

It's just the opposite- larger countries are harder to defend.

 

On the other hand they might be more difficult to conquer.  Take Israel and spread its governing bodies all over its land. How many conventional missiles are required to destroy it? Do the same exercise for Iran.  This is of course a very simplistic example. In previous wars Israel hasn't really faced this situation. Anyhow, this discussion can easily turn political so this is my last post about it. Make peace not war and all that.