ECRI guys wrong?

[Aberhound]

At this stage in the US recovery the pent up demand should cause still more growth. Growth is slow because the helpful policies are all sugar and no meat mixed with harmful policies which are all skewers. The recession call is stated to be based on certain indicators. If the data is garbage then how can ECRI rely so much on such indicators? I suspect that the real call is based on the 1981 double dip where a weak recovery turns into a second recession because of a shock. There are lots of potential shocks so the call is a safe bet. If he is wrong economists have called 5 of the last 3 recessions so he suffers little harm to his reputation. If he is right he gains many customers whose asses are saved by his bold call.

 

I think Hussman's observation that it is a terrible time to invest in the S&P is a better analysis. The probability of risks and reward is against you.

 

[meiroy]

ECRI guys are still forecasting a recession:

 

Why Our Recession Call Stands

ECRI March 15, 2012

 

Many have questioned why, in the face of improving economic data, ECRI has maintained its recession call. The straight answer is that the objective economic indicators we monitor give us no choice.

 

I wonder how their customers, who have been out of the market since this dubious recession call was made just as the stock market was bottoming last year, feel about ECRI?

 

Maybe they're thinking to themselves "it ain't over till the fat lady sings."