Jeremy Grantham's 1Q 2009 letter

[vinod1]

https://www.gmo.com/America/CMSAttachmentDownload.aspx?target=JUBRxi51IIBkzeMN6maT8U1%2fTdfZFUgg1mR%2b%2f01QLADkc%2bteJzsR%2bVfcC%2fSC%2btuA%2fvERm%2f47EsGV8Aeo3YQwhCgYpJJIz2rK%2fXue%2bib4lzo%3d

 

Good letter but he loses me when he talks about presendential cycle.

 

Vinod

[jb85]

i hear you about the presidential cycle, it may work but i just tend to ignore those sections of the letter, too short term.  However overall, i think it is one of the better macro view newsletters out there. 

[arbitragr]

need to login ... can't access  ???

[netnet]

need to login ... can't access  ???

All you have to do is register to get access.

 

Interesting macro view, as always.

[philassor]

thanks for the link;

 

found the reading interesting/entertaining. I know that some of you hold grantham in high regards. In my humble opinion, I find his attempts to anticipate short term market moves as rather futile and contrary to ben graham and buffett's assertion that you cannot predict the market in the short term. there are too many moving parts and too much psychology and frivolous emotions involved for this kind of exercise. It is a little bit like making sense of a chaotic system in physics.

 

good reading anyway.

[vinod1]

This is not one of his better letters. You should read "The blackstone peak and the turning of the worm" and his other letters right at the peak of both 1999 and 2007 mania's.

 

His methodology is pretty robust and for me he ranks right up with Buffett. The main underlying principle in his method is Mean Reversion which does not seem to be inconsistent with Graham.

 

Vinod