FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

[rros]

big news this morning

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-29/for-fannie-freddie-watchdog-a-quieter-battle-with-white-house

[Luke 532]

big news this morning

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-29/for-fannie-freddie-watchdog-a-quieter-battle-with-white-house

 

"FHFA officials in negotiations have said they want Fannie and Freddie to keep $2 billion to $3 billion each as a buffer against losses, according to people familiar with the matter. Administration officials in exchange want to limit the mortgage giants’ market footprint by steps such as tightening restrictions on the size of loans they back, according to the people, who requested anonymity because the talks are private."

[investorG]

big news this morning

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-29/for-fannie-freddie-watchdog-a-quieter-battle-with-white-house

 

the article seems incomplete at best.  what's the point of a 2bn buffer when you're facing a 10bn writedown in the same quarter if tax reform passes?

 

my best guess is light's trying to stir up trouble a) with corker to derail tax reform or b) to get a jumpstart extension before year end.

[Guest cherzeca]

big news this morning

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-29/for-fannie-freddie-watchdog-a-quieter-battle-with-white-house

 

the article seems incomplete at best.  what's the point of a 2bn buffer when you're facing a 10bn writedown in the same quarter if tax reform passes?

 

my best guess is light's trying to stir up trouble a) with corker to derail tax reform or b) to get a jumpstart extension before year end.

 

I had same reaction. There is a story here but joe is not covering the larger issue of capital hit re tax reform.

[rros]

You can't trust Joe , John, or the one who fled to Ecuador and his troupe of fellow travelers. Can never trust. They are about to give up.

 

big news this morning

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-29/for-fannie-freddie-watchdog-a-quieter-battle-with-white-house

 

the article seems incomplete at best.  what's the point of a 2bn buffer when you're facing a 10bn writedown in the same quarter if tax reform passes?

 

my best guess is light's trying to stir up trouble a) with corker to derail tax reform or b) to get a jumpstart extension before year end.

I take this at face value. The bigger story seems to be the disagreement between FHFA/Treasury. I am thinking -regardless this is true or theatrical- if a cushion comes as a result of a disagreement then it is good news. If it comes as an accord, bad news. A disagreement implies the desire by Watt -and resisted by Treasury- to rebuild some capital, any. If it happens and with another year to his term, Watt may push for much greater cushion and much greater capital. While Treasury may continue to play the same "resisting role". I would like this set up. It moves in our direction while Treasury can't be totally blamed.

[rros]

@ emily and OT.

If you are interested in bitcoin, simply buy CME. On Dec. 10th. contracts start trading. CME will make awesome profits out of this whatever the price bitcoin may be. Down the road they can open up to other cryptos (litecoin and ethereum). The trading volume could be immense. Only one winner: cme. And if it joins the ride, cboe. CME broke out yesterday to historic highs. Good entry point.

[Midas79]

It seems that things are coming to a head. We have three things happening very close together:

 

• Fannie and Freddie both past the 10% IRR point; under the original SPSPA the seniors would just have been repaid (end of Q3 2017)
  
• Expiration of Jumpstart (end of Q4 2017)
  
• Zero capital (end of Q1 2018)
  

 

It is most likely coincidence that all of these are happening in a ~6-month timeframe, but each is an incentive to get something done and collectively there might be just enough oomph.

[investorG]

rros, I thought you were also of the opinion earlier that retaining meaningless amount of capital like 2-3 billion was not good for the long run.

 

You can't trust Joe , John, or the one who fled to Ecuador and his troupe of fellow travelers. Can never trust. They are about to give up.

 

big news this morning

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-29/for-fannie-freddie-watchdog-a-quieter-battle-with-white-house

 

the article seems incomplete at best.  what's the point of a 2bn buffer when you're facing a 10bn writedown in the same quarter if tax reform passes?

 

my best guess is light's trying to stir up trouble a) with corker to derail tax reform or b) to get a jumpstart extension before year end.

I take this at face value. The bigger story seems to be the disagreement between FHFA/Treasury. I am thinking -regardless this is true or theatrical- if a cushion comes as a result of a disagreement then it is good news. If it comes as an accord, bad news. A disagreement implies the desire by Watt -and resisted by Treasury- to rebuild some capital, any. If it happens and with another year to his term, Watt may push for much greater cushion and much greater capital. While Treasury may continue to play the same "resisting role". I would like this set up. It moves in our direction while Treasury can't be totally blamed.

 

fwiw, i'd go with your first instinct not to trust joe light.  he's no dummy.  this is a maximum sensitive time for tax reform and the expiry of jumpstart.  he likely wanted to create friction.  he hides behind unnamed sources, and mentions that 'fhfa officials' (not watt) have made the request.  he also edited the story after the open to mention the stock price rise and hedge fund ownership.  he's either a hired gun or a bad guy.

 

[rros]

rros, I thought you were also of the opinion earlier that retaining meaningless amount of capital like 2-3 billion was not good for the long run.

And I still am but with a tweak...

 

If retention of capital is the desire of both Treasury and FHFA it could mean an implicit agreement to extend the conservatorship. Bad. The seemingly current disagreement shows one actor willing to build capital (showing independence and potentially wanting to breakup) while the other one resisting. I feel (just guts) this disagreement helps us and the small cushion could prove to be a starter.

 

Given what we experienced in the last year or so the road to fully recap is politically closed. So how do you start? You really cannot show your hand or risk Congress doing the unthinkable.

 

Joe Light = bad. Maybe. The timing of the article is highly suspicious. But, participants are buying it (and the shares). No selling the rip. Let's see the closing prices today and follow through tomorrow.

[Midas79]

What are the odds that Corker's "trigger" includes anything specific to the GSEs?

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2017/11/29/sen-bob-corker-is-running-out-of-time-to-stop-the-republican-tax-bill-from-driving-up-deficit/?utm_term=.2bb4720492ab

 

I can't find anything GSE related in these stories, but that doesn't mean it isn't there. Sneaking through more anti-recap and release legislation would be a rather bad turn of events for shareholders.

[rros]

What are the odds that Corker's "trigger" includes anything specific to the GSEs?

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2017/11/29/sen-bob-corker-is-running-out-of-time-to-stop-the-republican-tax-bill-from-driving-up-deficit/?utm_term=.2bb4720492ab

 

I can't find anything GSE related in these stories, but that doesn't mean it isn't there. Sneaking through more anti-recap and release legislation would be a rather bad turn of events for shareholders.

According to a Bloomberg reporter there is something called "manager's amendment" that includes all the last-minute, behind-the-scenes deals that have been worked out and that nobody knows and they throw that in the bill right before the vote so Senators don't really know what they are voting on. I found this link with more information: http://www.districtpolicygroup.com/dewonkify-detail/dewonkify-manager-s-amendment . Let's hope there is nothing GSEs related in there.

 

[Luke 532]

Here's hoping (1) that Corker didn't receive one of those concessions and, (2) if he did, it has nothing to do with the GSE's.

 

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/tax-bill-2017/card/1512140946

Sen. Bob Corker Says Tax Bill Will Probably Pass

 

“I realize that there’s probably enough votes right now to pass it,” said Sen. Bob Corker (R., Tenn.) in a hallway interview on Friday morning. His comments suggest that Republican leaders have granted enough concessions to other Republicans to pass the tax bill later Friday.

 

Sen. John Thune said Republican leaders were still working to win support from all 52 Republicans.

 

Siobhan Hughes, Richard Rubin

[Midas79]

Here's hoping (1) that Corker didn't receive one of those concessions and, (2) if he did, it has nothing to do with the GSE's.

 

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/tax-bill-2017/card/1512140946

Sen. Bob Corker Says Tax Bill Will Probably Pass

 

“I realize that there’s probably enough votes right now to pass it,” said Sen. Bob Corker (R., Tenn.) in a hallway interview on Friday morning. His comments suggest that Republican leaders have granted enough concessions to other Republicans to pass the tax bill later Friday.

 

Sen. John Thune said Republican leaders were still working to win support from all 52 Republicans.

 

Siobhan Hughes, Richard Rubin

 

The next two sentences are better news:

 

His comments suggest that Republican leaders have granted enough concessions to other Republicans to pass the tax bill later Friday without his support.

 

“I think so,” Mr. Corker said a bit later when asked whether he expected the bill to pass without him. “I’m certainly not trying to rally people in a different direction. Everybody has to vote their own conscience.”

 

I would love for the bill to pass with Corker voting no. That means he didn't get his preferred language in.

[Luke 532]

+1!  That would be great.  The article must have added those additional lines after I posted it because that would have definitely caught my attention.  Thanks for posting!

 

Here's hoping (1) that Corker didn't receive one of those concessions and, (2) if he did, it has nothing to do with the GSE's.

 

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/tax-bill-2017/card/1512140946

Sen. Bob Corker Says Tax Bill Will Probably Pass

 

“I realize that there’s probably enough votes right now to pass it,” said Sen. Bob Corker (R., Tenn.) in a hallway interview on Friday morning. His comments suggest that Republican leaders have granted enough concessions to other Republicans to pass the tax bill later Friday.

 

Sen. John Thune said Republican leaders were still working to win support from all 52 Republicans.

 

Siobhan Hughes, Richard Rubin

 

The next two sentences are better news:

 

His comments suggest that Republican leaders have granted enough concessions to other Republicans to pass the tax bill later Friday without his support.

 

“I think so,” Mr. Corker said a bit later when asked whether he expected the bill to pass without him. “I’m certainly not trying to rally people in a different direction. Everybody has to vote their own conscience.”

 

I would love for the bill to pass with Corker voting no. That means he didn't get his preferred language in.

[Midas79]

+1!  That would be great.  The article must have added those additional lines after I posted it because that would have definitely caught my attention.  Thanks for posting!

 

Good point that they changed it later. They snuck in the "without his support" bit, which wasn't there when you posted. I'm glad they did change it because it provides vital context to the piece. I wish they had put "updated at XX:XX am" or some such.

[Guest cherzeca]

you think mnuchin is best pals with corker now?

[Luke 532]

Looks like Flake and Collins are voting "yes" for the tax reform bill, so the bill is very likely to pass.  In other news, Corker/Warner are apparently writing a GSE reform bill right now... probably because they didn't get anything in the tax reform bill so they're trying to get something in with a separate bill.

[Midas79]

The tax bill the Senate is voting on is their own version, right? I know there were differences between the House and Senate so if each of them passes their own version, we will need a third bill to get it past both chambers. That unfortunately might give Corker another chance to add his preferred language.

[Guest cherzeca]

The tax bill the Senate is voting on is their own version, right? I know there were differences between the House and Senate so if each of them passes their own version, we will need a third bill to get it past both chambers. That unfortunately might give Corker another chance to add his preferred language.

 

that's done in reconciliation, and it's an invitation only process from both houses.  yes he will get a vote on the reconciled bill, but i wouldnt expect him to be in on the reconciliation process

[investorG]

you think mnuchin is best pals with corker now?

 

it doesn't matter, if it goes anywhere, gse reform is almost certainly going through congress (at least at first).

 

with the Flynn news, at a minimum, the administration will not want to piss off congressional republicans who could control his fate.

 

a lot of 'tim howard -- administrative actions' hopes need to be tamped down imo.

 

I find the preferred to be a little (relatively) safer now than the commons, fwiw.  especially since none of the house republicans have latched onto (or even mentioned) the RNC - moelis plan during the 4 hearings.

[Luke 532]

GOP Senate source tells me a deal has been cut with Corker, leadership has the votes for tax reform. It’s possibly they wrap before 7 p.m.

[Guest cherzeca]

GOP Senate source tells me a deal has been cut with Corker, leadership has the votes for tax reform. It’s possibly they wrap before 7 p.m.

 

Corker will take all the credit

[beaufort]

Bloomberg says Corker is lone holdout as of 11.08am PST:  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-01/cruz-triumphs-over-corker-in-350-billion-overnight-tax-fight

[rros]

Manager's amendment lol

 

Looks like a loooong list.

[Luke 532]

Manager's amendment lol

 

Looks like a loooong list.

 

I would love to see the entire list and see if anything Jumpstart-ish is in it.