Luca Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 (edited) Looking forward to results! Edited January 12 by Luca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 (edited) With a stable multiple of todays 26x and JPMs estimates coming in true at 245 USD Earnings for 2024, the SP 500 will stand at 6.370 end of this year, a 32% return Then another 10% for the year after! TTM Earnings for the SP 500 is at 182, well see what happens Q4! Edited January 13 by Luca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 The board remains moderately bullish for this year and the index, interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adesigar Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 4 hours ago, Luca said: The board remains moderately bullish for this year and the index, interesting! I don’t think I would call 5% as bullish. That’s about what you get with a savings account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattee2264 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I think it is all about Mag7 and the rest. NO-LANDING: Mag 7 will do badly and the rest will do well (except for interest rate sensitive sectors e.g. financials). S&P 500 will probably go sideways. SOFT-LANDING: everything will do well with Mag7 probably leading the pack. S&P 500 might go up 10-20% or something. HARD-LANDING: everything will do badly with Mag7 outperforming as its earnings are more resilient than more cyclical sectors and lower interest rates are very bullish for long duration stocks. And so long as AI hype continues investors will probably look through any cyclical weakness in Mag7 earnings. S&P 500 might go down 10-20% or something. Possibly more if something majorly breaks. But I think that the Fed put will limit the damage. What I have observed is that since COVID investors have been treating Mag7 as a safe haven. And because growth has been scarce and Mag7 are the only companies growing their earnings it is understandable investors are willing to pay a big premium for their earnings. The wild card is AI. If it becomes clear that a wave of lawsuits and regulation are going to stall progress then that could dampen enthusiasm for Mag7. Tech earnings expectations are pretty ambitious with AI presumably expected to contribute and if it does then we could be in for a mid 90s melt up and an even more two tiered market. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backtothebeach Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 This poll is missing an option. The one that Buffett would choose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 39 minutes ago, backtothebeach said: This poll is missing an option. The one that Buffett would choose. Which option do you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masterofnone Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Umm. "Absolutely no idea"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 14 minutes ago, Masterofnone said: Umm. "Absolutely no idea"? Ah yes, fair but then we wouldnt need a poll. Its a nice sentiment check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backtothebeach Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 56 minutes ago, Masterofnone said: Umm. "Absolutely no idea"? Yep. We've all heard Buffett and Munger say it countless times. Yet the prediction game (short term market direction, interest rates, macro economy) is oh so tempting, even on the "Corner of Berkshire..." Years ago on a different board, one of the more undiplomatic posters wrote "predictions are garbage". For some reason that stuck in my mind and I frequently remember it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattee2264 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I think Howard Marks said something along the lines at "At Oaktree we are allowed to have macro opinions we just don't trade on them" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 43 minutes ago, mattee2264 said: I think Howard Marks said something along the lines at "At Oaktree we are allowed to have macro opinions we just don't trade on them" Well said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linus_md Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 hours ago, backtothebeach said: "predictions are garbage" +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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