Berkshire IV

[roberts1001]

Each year I collect IV estimates that appear in the press, on TV or on discussion boards and summarize them in a spreadsheet.  I typically find 15 or so estimates.  It's only been a few days since the annual report came out, but so far I've found estimates from seven authors.  These IV estimates are calculated using a variety of different models, including float model, discounted cash flow, investments-plus-multiple-of-earnings, etc.  In the spreadsheet I cite the reference so that people can read each author's analysis firsthand.  Somewhere during the year I usually hear or read IV estimates from five or six of the fund managers who hold BRK stock.  In addition some very good analyses come from non-professionals.  All estimates are welcome, but preferably with an acompanying quantative analysis.

 

If you you have run an IV analysis yourself, or if you have seen one published, would you please let me know so than I can add it to my collection?  I'd be happy to upload the spreadsheets for Dec '05, Dec '06, Dec '07, and the spreadsheet that is in progress for Dec '08 if we have a files section here.  Or I can post them on Geocities with links. 

 

Here are some statistics for the estimates that I've found so far this year:

 

Estimates of IV as of Dec 31:

 

Number of estimates: 7

Range: $117K-$148K

Average: $131K

Median: $128K

Stdev: $11K

 

IV range, number

110-119, 1

120-129, 3

130-139, 1

140-149, 2

 

Note:  Many authors state a range for IV, not a single IV value.  In order to calculate the average for the different authors I use the midpoint of each author's stated range, unless their wording implies some preference.  If their wording implies a preference for, say, the upper end of the range, then I infer a "best estimate."

 

 

[zarley]

The intrinsivaluator: http://creativeacademics.com/finance/IV.html

 

Conservative estimate = $117k per share.

 

IMO, that's an excellent starting point for a simple assessment of BRK IV.

 

Your collection of IV estimates might be better if they had source links, or something to back them up. 

[roberts1001]

http://www.geocities.com/roberts1001/BRK_IV_estimates.xls

 

[calonego]

That link didn't work for me.

[calonego]

If you copy/paste the URL it works.

 

Thanks for the spreadsheet -

[zarley]

Interesting.  Thanks for the link to the spreadsheet.