Fort McMurray loss

[naboo]

Does anybody have an estimate of Fort McMurray loss?

 

I know "there are people who try to use models (to estimate insured losses) and the models have proven to be inaccurate", but I still did a rough estimate by comparing to other insurance companies and the Slave Lake fire 2011. In 2011 Slave lake, NorthBridge lost USD$17.6M with a higher quarterly written premium. Today, IFC reported loss estimate about CAD$ 130M to CAD$ 160M, they have 15% in Alberta market. I had no data of Northbridge's percentage, then I checked their written premium, they were about 1/9 of IFC.  so Northbridge might have around CAD$ 14M to 20M (USD$ 11M to 16M) loss in this event.