Is this CoBF a Contrarian Indicator?

[randomep]

 

Folks,

 

I did imply that it is futile to figure out whether poster's greatest convictions is a contrarian indicator for a stock. But trying to figure out whether there is a correlation between stock returns and number of posts is a worthwhile exercise. I mean if someone can figure out any correlation between number of posts and relative market returns, and that correlation holds for the future, that person will be rich.

 

But the results seem to be inconclusive now after I corrected the list. At least for the most talked about stocks. But I think I am going to try to figure out what is the correlation at the bottom end of the list; ie. for the least posted stocks.

 

 

thanks

[doughishere]

You will notice that over the 22years of its track record, our US portfolio has underperformed the S&P 500 on six occasions (or 27% of the time).  This is in line with our“Rule of Three” which stipulates that we acceptto underperform the index one year out of three on average.  This average, if we can maintain it, would befar superior tothe overallperformance ofportfolio managers.It is a difficult task to maintain outperforming the S&P 500 but it is our mission. - Giverny Capital Inc.

 

Maybe its not just COBF.

[Guest longinvestor]

 

Are you kidding me about LVLT? The original thread in CoBF about LVLT had scores of investors who lost their shirt (and underpants as well). LVLT had 15 for 1 reverse split and has barely outperformed S&P in last 5 years.

 

A typical investor putting equal amount of $ in stocks discussed in this forum will under perform S&P over time. Most cheap stocks are value traps.

 

Also 99.99% of oil and nat gas stocks discussed here have gone close to 0.

 

i know nothing about LVLT but I do see the thread started oct 24, 2010 at which time the poster said the stock is below $1. If all that's happened is a 15 to 1 reverse split then it means the stock has gone from $15 to $55 today.  Pretty good by me.

 

There is some irony with LVLT and the CoBF board.

 

There was a time when LVLT was the uberdiscussed stock here. There were some rather zealous posters posting zealously(perhaps crossing the line of acceptable posting behavior) and in the other corner were the sons-of-the-soil of CoBF eager to throw the hush flag on them. This went on for a while until about 2011 or so when some relatively quieter, savvy LVLT holders sensed a turnaround of titanic proportion underway, piled into the stock around 2009-10-11 and opted to shhhh the story on this board. They let the hushers keep hushing and stayed away from this board. This was in complete contrast to some of the duds on the top 10 list which were cheered all the way to 6-feet-under by many on this board.

 

Investors should learn to tune out the noise and majority opinion so dominating on these pages and choose to be fiercely independent. Your wealth will benefit from doing so.

 

Here is how LVLT fared relative to the well known darlings GOOG, AAPL - (the only other unquestioned winners in the top 10 list),between Jan 1 2010 and Jan 1 2016.

LVLT  20.85 54.36 160.71%

AAPL 27.44 97.34 254.73%

GOOG 263.98 742.95 181.44%

 

 

 

 

[randomep]

You will notice that over the 22years of its track record, our US portfolio has underperformed the S&P 500 on six occasions (or 27% of the time).  This is in line with our“Rule of Three” which stipulates that we acceptto underperform the index one year out of three on average.  This average, if we can maintain it, would befar superior tothe overallperformance ofportfolio managers.It is a difficult task to maintain outperforming the S&P 500 but it is our mission. - Giverny Capital Inc.

 

Maybe its not just COBF.

 

?? I don't get you... are you saying Giverney is a contrarian indicator?

[Liberty]

You will notice that over the 22years of its track record, our US portfolio has underperformed the S&P 500 on six occasions (or 27% of the time).  This is in line with our“Rule of Three” which stipulates that we acceptto underperform the index one year out of three on average.  This average, if we can maintain it, would befar superior tothe overallperformance ofportfolio managers.It is a difficult task to maintain outperforming the S&P 500 but it is our mission. - Giverny Capital Inc.

 

Maybe its not just COBF.

 

?? I don't get you... are you saying Giverney is a contrarian indicator?

 

Maybe that everyone can expect to have periods of underperformance, and that includes organisations like investment firms and discussion forums.