VAL9000
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Posts posted by VAL9000
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This debate reminds me of packet switching vs circuit switching.
I think that eventually packet switching (self driving trucks) will win in overall cost vs circuit switching (trains). But the economic model of self driving trucks will be very different from today's trucking model.
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It includes all foreign property including securities.
Whoever holds your investment accounts should be able to give you the bulk (in some cases you'll have to call them up and ask for the report).
Holdings in your registered accounts do not count towards the 100k threshold.
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Nice tip - thanks!
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But what is Uber’s edge running a large fleet of cars exactly?
Oh, I don't think this is Uber's game to win. They have done a fantastic job of creating a centralized service for ride hailing which gives us great insight into the economics of the business. I don't believe Uber will develop the technology needed to create a very profitable business. This game will be won by whomever does. Probably Google and/or GM based on what I've read.
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Here is the information you are looking for:
https://www.wsj.com/graphics/uber-financials/
Of $11bn revenue $7.5bn goes to drivers and their cars. It's an enormous opportunity for both revenue growth and cost optimization.
Self driving cars will cost less than a typical vehicle today and will be much better utilized.
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Don't argue with people online? Nonsense :D
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A little (or a lot) of everything. At about 70% cash now. We'll see what happens, but I'm going to be sitting on the sidelines for a while.
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Not to derail a thread that has taken an exciting turn into politics, but I really loved the first two podcasts in this series.
I especially enjoyed the "a-ha" moments where you can tie back the current state of the business to that one insight. Almost like the business itself huddles around this core idea for warmth and nurturing.
Can't wait to get to the rest.
Also this politicized debate you are having sounds a lot like destiny vs. free will.
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Two articles from the New Yorker that are linked by changing consumer habits and tastes:
http://www.newyorker.com/business/currency/small-bountiful-small-business-craft-beer
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/01/26/shake-shack-economy
I think there's huge opportunity here - either as a small business owner or as an investor. Not exactly a value investing topic given the P/E of Chipotle, Starbucks, etc., but still interesting to think about and possibly invest accordingly.
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What is your goal? Are you looking to be a long term independent contractor, or are you looking to build a business / grow a company?
Is this more about money or more about lifestyle?
Are you better at sales or execution?
Tip #1 is don't leave your current place of employ without a contract to go to. If you can't find a contract while already committed to a project, then you will always struggle to pipeline your work - it's a good sign that being employed is probably a better choice for you.
The easiest way to dip your toe in the water is to find a couple of good recruiters and have them hunt down a contract for you. Spend the next 6 months setting up your business and learning the ropes, then you can work your network harder to find a better paying gig.
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Also education is just awefull.
This is either hilarious or tragic. I'm not sure which.
THE SPELLING POLICE HAS ARRIVED. Can you speak dutch? yes no? It is my second language.
Sorry, I didn't realize English is your second language.
I'm sure you can appreciate the humour, though.
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Also education is just awefull.
This is either hilarious or tragic. I'm not sure which.
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We've been spoiled coming out of the crash with the abundance of good ideas. You could run a screen and within the first five or ten names you'd find a good investment.
There are ideas out there, I revisited my investment in Hammond Manufacturing yesterday, they're still at 54% of BV and 6x earnings. These companies are floating out there, but it takes more work to find them. Maybe you only find an idea once a month instead of once every two days. Is that terrible?
My impression is most people on this board own about 6 stocks. If you have a 25% turnover you have 12 months to find two stocks. Yes, there are fewer opportunities but there are at least two cheap stocks out there over the course of a year.
Was just about to post on this topic. The probability of finding a bargain in this market is much lower than 2009. If you weren't good then, you might want to think about playing it safe now. I chose very well over the past 5 years and I'm basically tapping out now. All new funds or all divested assets are moving into very safe, boring businesses. In short I am turning over my wins into low probability losers.
The real market (meaning american business) is heating up like crazy. The stock market forecastsed this behavior. Chances are if you're spending a lot of time value investing right now, you are missing out on earning potentially greater sums by working/doing business/making moves. That's one of the major reasons I have personally been inactive on the board.
When work slows down, I know it's time to bargain hunt. When work speeds up, it's time to do real work.
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The cost of term insurance goes up significantly as you get closer to your probable date of death. You won't be able to renew at $664/year in 10 years time.
He could buy a longer duration term life policy. We bought a 25 year term policy, just before my wife had a child. I figure that should last until he is done college, and since we'll have our home/rental properties paid off well before then, plus 25 years of compounding on investments, life insurance will no longer be necessary. So the cost of renewing at that time is irrelevant, as I wouldn't do it.
It's still the same consideration. The last 5 years of a 25 year term policy is much more expensive to insure than the first 5 years. Depending on how old OP is, he may not be insurable for a 25 year term.
You probably didn't see much difference between a 10 and a 25 year term policy when you were shopping around because you are so young. The chance that you die before your sixties is really, really low. (Lower even because I can deduce that you are relatively wealthy because you are on an investment board.)
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The cost of term insurance goes up significantly as you get closer to your probable date of death. You won't be able to renew at $664/year in 10 years time.
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Time for a stroll down NWA World:
http://www.nwaworld.com/lyrics/
Man, I can't even repeat the stuff that is sad over there. Way too culturally enriching.
This is a modern day minstrel show. It is a disgrace.
Old white guys telling young black men how to be. The irony is delicious.
The beats acquisition, if real, is probably a terrible idea.
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This is one thing that bugs me about my ipad. It basically has a laptop sized screen, not a smartphone sized screen. Yet half the websites out there serve it the mobile version rather than the full version. You have to constantly request the full version and some sites still refuse to give it to you. There is one real estate website (I forget if it is zillow or truela) that refuses to let you view their website altogether. They just give you a page that says go download our app. There is a continue to our website button, but it doesn't work. I'm glad COBAF lets you use the desktop version on a tablet.
If you use Chrome on your mobile device (which you should ;) ), there's a check box in the menu to "request desktop site". That will request the desktop formatting for all sites by default.
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Where he's wrong is that IBM's % of deals that are cloud deals is just above 0%.On IBM...
Val,
I've enjoyed your previous posts about MSFT. Can you expand on this sentence I've quoted? Literally, I don't know what it means. IBM has very little in the way of cloud business?...is that all you're saying?
I meant that it's not a big % of the business that they write, so the impact of deferred revenues due to cloud is negligible.
Where the impact is measurable is probably in lost business because not all of IBM's software offerings support a cloud deployment model. There will be a period of transition as IBM converts its on premise offerings to cloud applications.
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On IBM...
Well, the revenue trends have-- been less than-- anticipated...The financial numbers have been pretty good, but it's been helped by low tax rates and things of that sort. There is a transition going on in the business-- you know, particularly in-- in terms of the cloud...And-- so I would say it's fair-- it's fair to say that I know less about the future of IBM than I might know about the future of Wells Fargo or-- Coca Cola or the businesses we own. I think I do know enough about it that I feel good about owning the stock. But-- -- my level of understanding of a company like IBM is not as high as my level of understanding of a Wells Fargo or a Coke. In terms of the price action, that doesn't make any difference to me. That-- if-- IBM bought in a lot of stock last year. And if the stock had been even lower they would've bought-- they would've gotten more shares. So the fewer the shares outstanding the better I-- the better I like it. And they've continued to buy in shares. They buy 'em at a good clip, and I-- I like that. But I would like to see the revenues pick up.It's interesting because he's 100% right. Transition to cloud means that on premise licenses are exchanged for cloud license rentals. The result is that instead of selling x license fee, you sell x/3 cloud fee, but you collect it every year. The short term economics aren't as good, but the long term engagement is stickier. Plus there is less room for audit issues (licenses used but not paid for).
Where he's wrong is that IBM's % of deals that are cloud deals is just above 0%.
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There was a long thread about gmcr? Still around did anyone call or even think about this?
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Use the scissors to vent the box and keep the pizza from getting steamed up and chewy.
Inspiration:
http://www.wired.com/design/2014/01/huh-the-best-designed-pizza-box-is-from-india/
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My view is that if you are surprised about your bonus, then you have a relationship problem with your manager.
If peers are being paid more in a similar role, then you are underperforming. If you are surprised about your underperformance, then it hasn't been communicated sufficiently throughout the year. Some managers are not good at communicating this, but they aren't going to be punished - it will be you. The onus is on you to improve your relationship with your manager. You must seek criticism, make improvements, and iterate. And don't be annoying about it.
A good start is: Hi manager, I'm disappointed in my bonus for 2013. Can we discuss specific objectives or improvements I can make to maximize my value to the firm in 2014? Can you also clarify for me what my total potential bonus may be if I meet or exceed your expectations?
If you don't do this face-to-face then you're doing it wrong.
Respect is earned. If you just leave you will never learn how to earn the respect of your peers, your management, or your subordinates.
Also to address Kraven's point about entitlement.... You're 25. You don't know shit about your business. Sorry that's tough love but keep it in mind with respect to how you approach your employment. It's a very long game and the only way to scale up your earnings is to constantly learn and apply.
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I've smoked and I've vaped and smoking is better. I'm not arguing against legalization. My original post ("No respectable person past college age smokes pot.") was merely a comment that it is not socially acceptable to smoke weed. I also don't think it's a good idea to ingest THC, especially if you get paranoid afterwards (it can lead to psychosis).
At least in my social circle, pot is something you do when you're a bored/immature student, not when you're (supposed to be) maturing.
Well what you said was "No respectable person past college age smokes pot."
I think what you meant was "I don't respect any person past college age who smokes pot."
Making blanket statements and offering personal opinions will get two completely different reactions.
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What about SBC expenses? Even though it is not a cash expense It doesn't really seem right to add back that amount.
Sure the cost will be reflected in the future per share amount. But technically Microsoft could pay all expenses with SBCs. If employees or vendors or the company's utility company won't accept msft stock for payment, Microsoft could sell MSFT call options on the open market, and use the proceeds to pay for all expenses including rent, paper, marketing, etc and this would allow all expenses to be net non-cash outlay. Depending on the future results, this might or might not be reflected in the per share amounts in the future. If it will be, earnings are guaranteed to be always positive as opposed to if expenses are recognized in which case negative earnings are possible. If it will not, MSFT paid expense out of thin air with magically high owner earnings.
Good point. Sounds to me like it shouldn't be added to Net Income. Buffett and Munger repeatedly said that stock options are a real expense and that it is wishful thinking to treat them as anything else.
For Microsoft, absolutely - their compensation model relies on stock-based compensation to attract talent. This isn't the case for every company. You need to apply the same litmus test to each business in isolation. Significant stock-based compensation could be granted in connection with a one-time or infrequent event, such as an acquisition or new leadership.
It's still an expense, but the part that needs some careful consideration is whether or not it's an on-going expense, and to what degree is it on-going.
I Came of Age During the 2008 Financial Crisis. I’m Still Angry About It.
in General Discussion
Posted
I think this comes down to priorities. $100k is a big number to graduate with and a huge burden. Yeah that sucks, but in 2008 there was a deluge of information in the media regarding personal finance. Everybody with any amount of debt knew what needed to be done. The financial crisis was not the author's fault, but the decision to spend 10 years effectively ignoring his debt is. Even after 1 year of making minimum payments you have to look at the result and prioritize a change... if financial security is truly important to you.
Instead, this guy chose to borrow from his future at whatever rate he's paying. Now, 10 years later, he's decided that wasn't a good choice and decides to reinforce the millennial stereotype of shirking responsibility by blaming the "shadow banking system" for his financial situation. I understand the appeal of living in a cosmopolitan city, working as a journalist, covering the fashion industry, etc. but that lifestyle comes at a cost. The cost for him is $100k at a "disgracefully high interest rate".
I think the author is willfully ignoring an important part of being an adult: personal finance. I'd say in 2008 his situation is mostly not his fault. In 2018 it's completely his fault. He had 10 years to adjust his lifestyle and chose not to.