Buckeye
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Posts posted by Buckeye
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There was an interesting article in this past weekend’s WSJ, where the writer pointed out that workers in the 70’s apparently expected the inflation to continue to increase and therefore they continued to ask for pay raises, thus exacerbating the inflation. He contrasted that with now, where apparently workers expect the current inflation to subside and therefore have not been asking/demanding pay raises.
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26 minutes ago, MarioP said:
See's Candy. A turning point in Buffett strategy
This is what I thought as well Mario. Could be wrong though.
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7 hours ago, cubsfan said:
JOE $52.10 & AIV $6.18 & MSGE $72.21 & PCYO $10.33
That's enough for today..
Is this the GMAL ETF?
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27 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:
You could well be right. Ukraine and Russia are both fighting a propaganda war, but Ukraine is much better at it. You would think that they at least have decent rifles. I have seen some videos from the Russian side, showing house to house search in Mariopolis mostly. A lot of those are Chechen and they don’t look that impressive either, but they do have decent weaponry.
Russia has definitely fielded a lot of conscripts and Putin calling up 135k more in a hurry shows this as well. I don’t think that part is propaganda.
Hey Spek,
Just to clarify your statement about “Putin calling up 135k more,” I read that that headline is a little misleading as Russia has two drafts a year (one in the Spring) where they draft approximately 135k troops. So while it does appear that Russia is adding to their troop levels (and they may certainly need it) it may be also a little bit of “lucky” timing.
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Damn @gfp, contacting the CFO? Nice work.
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3 hours ago, wabuffo said:
Can you elaborate? Because we just had 10+ years of massive and unprecedented deficits...and still didn't get massive inflation outside of asset markets.
We did not. We had a big deficit splurge in 2008-2009 and then quickly got back to deficits that were 3-4% of GDP. The numbers are large but as a % of GDP they aren't big. Now 2020-2021 was much larger and it was more in the form of direct payments to individuals (stimmie round 1, 2 & 3) and businesses (PPP forgiveable loans).
I think the key question is: Are these big deficits behind us and one-time in nature or is this the beginning of more deficit spending under this administration that will average much larger percentages of GDP?
I don't know.
But what I do know is that the Fed is a minor player in all of this action. The big gorilla is the US Treasury.
Bill
Weird that there’s an Ohio flag on Yellen’s spacesuit
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^Good points omagh
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37 minutes ago, gfp said:
There are two separate pension funds, each purchasing the same amount of the new security. 4.995% interest each, for a total of just under 10% of Odyssey. A few media reports have mis-stated the deal in headlines. I read one that said $1 Billion for 4.995% for instance.
From your quoted press release, just include the few words before your quote for clarity:
" to which each of CPPIB Credit Investments and OMERS will acquire 100% of a new series of securities representing a 4.995% interest in Odyssey Group"
Thanks GFP! I missed the fact that CPPIB and OMERS were two different entities. Thank you for the clarification.
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This may be a terribly stupid question, but can someone please explain to me why this deal is being reported as a sale of 10% of ORH, when the language in the opening paragraph of the press release reads “OMERS will acquire 100% of a new series of securities representing a 4.995% interest in Odyssey Group Holdings, Inc.”? So it’s not a sale of 4.995% of ORH?
Thanks!
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Thanks for sharing Poor Charlie!
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I vote for Lexus/Toyota. I bought my 2003 4Runner in 2008 with 50k miles and it just turned over 250k miles and is still running great. The only thing that’s been replaced over the years is oil, brakes, batteries, belts, plugs, tires and 1 radiator. Same starter, alternator, water pump, etc. It’s been an amazing truck.
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On 5/27/2021 at 12:24 PM, Gregmal said:
I mean for one, the first thing Joe Biden did upon entering office was shut down the ongoing Wuhan Lab investigation.
Hello Greg,
Thank you for your reply and for specifics.
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On 5/27/2021 at 12:24 PM, Gregmal said:
I mean for one, the first thing Joe Biden did upon entering office was shut down the ongoing Wuhan Lab investigation.
Hello Greg,
Thank you for your reply and for specifics.
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On 5/27/2021 at 12:24 PM, Gregmal said:
I mean for one, the first thing Joe Biden did upon entering office was shut down the ongoing Wuhan Lab investigation.
Hello Greg,
Thank you for your reply and for specifics.
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On 5/27/2021 at 12:24 PM, Gregmal said:
I mean for one, the first thing Joe Biden did upon entering office was shut down the ongoing Wuhan Lab investigation.
Hello Greg,
Thank you for your reply and for specifics.
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2 minutes ago, cubsfan said:
^ You must be kidding or living under a rock.
My point exactly...no specifics.
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46 minutes ago, Gregmal said:
Eh there was more than enough there to at least investigate, even from the onset. Instead, it was actively covered up and purposely not pursued. Even worse, it was deliberately emphasized that people should be discouraged from pursuing the Wuhan lab leak theory by many. And now it looks like the cover has been blown off and they're being exposed...but we won't even get a mea culpa or apology from these scumbags...they'll just move on to the next narrative they want to push and the only hope is that there's enough people out there who arent brainless enough to fall for it again.
I mean event tangentially, I know Asian hate crimes are now a hot topic(finally), did it help or hurt that the media spent the first 12 months of this thing peddling the narrative that this originated because a bunch of Chinese people were eating bats or some shit at a dirty flea market? When in reality it was likely something that escaped from a lab that the US was funding....imagine that?
I don't disagree, but I think that there's just so much to learn form this whole thing, and it doesnt seem like the majority of people learned anything. In fact I'd say they proved themselves to be dumber or more gullible than I could have imagined. There's always known and unknown variables out there that need to be underwritten into ones projections/models. Willfully ignoring them is dangerous.
We cant spend the entire summer and fall fear mongering about the safety of the vaccine, and then all of a sudden turn around and tell everyone "oh its safe"...and then ridicule people for being skeptical.
We cant allow people to purposely peddle a false narrative, refuse to investigate other theories, and then when they're wrong, just move on to the next story.
The biggest expose in all of this was the unreliability of government officials, experts, and media. Their willingness to lie, harness something like this for personal gain/attention, and then just change the story and tell everyone to move on. Its horrendous.
Greg, I understand your sentiment, but your messages lack any substance. You spend 3 or 4 paragraphs per post railing against all of these wrongs without giving any specifics. You use all of these "they"s and "they're"s describing all of the horrible people who "disparaged, ridiculed, called conspiracy theory nuts," etc. Who are you talking about specifically? Also who has "refused to investigate"? Do you think this topic is not currently being investigated?
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PTON - starting a position here in mid 90s after the steep fall. $4b fw revenue run rate, 40% margin profile, $28b MCap so not as bad a multiple now. Demand >> Supply, able to sell everything they make. Lots of optionality around accessories, apparel and subscriptions (as the blades) with the bike/tread just like a razor (and they make margins on the razor too). Global product and not specific to just the US. It's becoming part of culture now - people falling in love with their digital avatar instructor (some articles around that), AirBnBs and Hotels put them as a perk on their premises. Pay later business models making them affordable for mass consumers (Affirm is the largest source of biz). People using them for 20+ days a month shows the stickiness. Like the risk/reward.
Buena suerte. Lots of air still in this bubble.
Indeed. It went up a lot and now down a lot because thats what bubbles do. The fundamentals probably arent relevant until $50 a share. Although $100 maybe be a support level cause its a nice round number and thats the type of thing retail investors predicate their shizz on. Kind like how RICK hit a wall at $69!
In other news. Shorted some PSTH Jan 2022 $20 puts for ~$3.50, also cranked out some June $22.50s for ~2.50
Long live spac alpha.
Welcome back Gregmal. It's nice to see you here again. Apparently you were missed, as evidenced by the "Save Gregmal" thread:)
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"In 1999 and 2000, Buffett spoke of the market environment and the minimal returns investors could expect going forward."
That was my exact takeaway from this year's letter. He was pretty clear on bond's being insanely overpriced, and you can deduce what you would like from that in relation to the level of the stock market.
My issue was that we have a pandemic going on and I expected some commentary around that. The only commentary around that was that NFM was closed for six weeks.
Could it be that with the pandemic still on going it's too early to comment on it?
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OK, I am going to get a lot of flak for this, but I prefer investor/manager who is looking at the present and future and not waxes nostalgic about deals he did 50 or 70 years ago and people he worked with at the time. Yeah, it's all nice and grand and maybe even interesting in general. But Berkshire is a business and shareholders letter should be about the current and future state of affairs. OK, maybe Buffett does not want to tip his hand and talk about the future. How about talking about 2020 then? There's a number of things he did or did not do that get zero mention in the letter. ::)
Fair point Jurgis.
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Buckeye,
Yes, as gfp, just "said", then you compare with the information in note 22, p. K-107 about shares oustanding YE2020, calculate the difference, and multiply with estimated average market price for the A and the B in the period beginning of the year to mid February, which will get you in the area which gfp stated.
Thanks John!
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Cover page of 10-K, which follows chairman's letter in the Annual Report pdf released this morning. Estimate around $4.3 Billion in 2021 repurchase activity in the first 1 1/2 months - consistent with the $9 Billion / quarter recent rate. We'll see how prices influence repurchase volume if Berkshire shares rise from recent highs.
Screenshot attached
Yep, right there is it, thanks for the information gjp!
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Looks like 4Q buyback was more aggressive them people thought!
Not only that but Buffett kept buying in 2021. Through Feb 16, 2021, it looks like he repurchased another $4-$4.5b in BRK stock (depending on prices paid). Very impressive.
wabuffo
Hello wabuffo,
Can you please tell me how you determined that there were additional buybacks through Feb 16, 2021? I assume that the information is listed in an SEC filing? I've looked through the Edgar filings made on 2-16-21 but was unable to find any information in this regards.
Thanks so much,
Buckeye
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The 2020 Letter is out. Thank you to Mr. Bloomstran for allowing all to access it.
https://www.semperaugustus.com/clientletter
Muddy Waters is short
in Fairfax Financial
Posted