Ben Graham
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Posts posted by Ben Graham
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Another great "Walter" has died today. I remember him helping me sniff around DOW CHEMICAL some years back. Although waiting until $8.00 pps was the best course of action which I applied during the wake of the crisis, compared to the high teens when I recall him writing about, I will not forget the prudence learned from reading the thinkingDD processes behind this revered VALUE INVESTOR! :(
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DOW&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
ValueCarl,
Your figures for Dow Chemical don't lie and the spirit of a great value investor never dies.
Walter will be alive forever in light of his principles used to find value.
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Brker_guy, our board expert on satellite transmitting would be best to answer this GPS blame game, but there is some very positive news to be gleaned from the current dealings. It is true that the advancement of this network venture was politically motivated at the highest level inclusive of POTUS; however, what we are witnessing is that the entire political regime is deferring to the experts in protecting life and property by doing the right thing in declining L2's requests.
I think this is one of your most readable/coherent paragraphs. I encourage more of them!
To expand on racemize's comment,
I agree, that when ValueCarl fine tunes his writing skills to address a larger globe market, his message gets delivered to more ears with quality. ValueCarl, I'm merely encouraging you to show off your best talent and leave behind the hidden asset (code - like talking in code that only a few people understand). I think your listening audience would grow exponentially, if you provide them with Quality of Service - QoS.
You have such a great ability to express your point of view in a very learning and enlightening way, but sometimes the message gets caught in a trap (Value) with words outsiders can't interpret. So Carl please think along the line of delivery, and take
racemize's advise. ok
You have reach and scope, now tip the scale in your favor and apply some scale to your written messages.
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Why wouldn't it be IBM?
IBM is by far (at cost) Berkshire's largest equity investment ever.
Warren and Charlie must feel pretty good about its future prospects.
Maybe DTV. Good capital management, operating results, modest valuation, and advantages in certain markets absent unexpected major infrastructure investments.
I think you both are thinking a head into the future with great ideas with IBM and DirecTV.
I would go one step further and tie them together.
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If DJCO spun off their investment portfolio into a CEF, managed by Munger, with no fees like now, what are the odds it would trade at NAV? What would you pay for the privilege of having Munger invest your money for you, for free? This won't happen in a million years, nor should it, but they could if they wanted to. And it's interesting to think about when valuing...
Smith Affiliated Capital and Allianz Global Investors ( The top Institutional & top Mutual Fund Holders ) at Central Fund of Canada Ltd( CEF :AMEX), would welcome Munger's Daily Journal with open arms.
But like you said it will never happen. Dream on - very nice idea. The love of Value makes one conjure up all sorts of images & ideas.
Hester,
I believe strongly in the value of your professional investment advice.
The more I think about it, maybe you are on to something about; "If DJCO spun off their investment portfolio into a CEF, managed by Munger"
Or, Central Fund of Canada Ltd( CEF :AMEX largest institutional holder - Allianz Global Investors
Allianz Global Investors is a global asset management group committed to helping clients achieve sustainable success. We draw on the intellectual capital of our diverse family of investment managers—each with their own distinctive philosophy and culture—to provide clients with a choice of innovative investment solutions, including mutual funds, managed accounts, closed-end funds, 529 plans and retirement offerings. We are part of the Allianz Group, one of the world’s leading integrated financial services providers.
Their range of investment products includes:
Mutual Funds
Closed-End Funds
Managed Accounts
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Allianz Global Investors
Allianz is thinking Ahead in the Cloud and getting Valuable.
http://www.allianzinvestors.com/Commentary/MediaCenter/Pages/AheadintheCloud.aspx
They are the largest shareholder of Central Fund of Canada Ltd ( CEF :AMEX),
The short video clip says a lot. Embeded video is what business demands
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If DJCO spun off their investment portfolio into a CEF, managed by Munger, with no fees like now, what are the odds it would trade at NAV? What would you pay for the privilege of having Munger invest your money for you, for free? This won't happen in a million years, nor should it, but they could if they wanted to. And it's interesting to think about when valuing...
Smith Affiliated Capital and Allianz Global Investors ( The top Institutional & top Mutual Fund Holders ) at Central Fund of Canada Ltd( CEF :AMEX), would welcome Munger's Daily Journal with open arms.
But like you said it will never happen. Dream on - very nice idea. The love of Value makes one conjure up all sorts of images & ideas.
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Long-time students of Charlie Munger are quite aware of Wesco (WSC), which Charlie has been Chairman of for some years.
However, the Daily Journal Corporation (DJCO), while smaller, is perhaps the fullest public expression of Charlie Munger's business creativity. According to the DJCO's latest proxy statement, Munger, Marshall & Co control 41.1% of the company's stock. Mr. Munger and Mr. Marshall are the sole general partners of the Munger, Marshall & Co partnership.
http://www.gurufocus.com/news/78840/charlie-munger-and-the-daily-journal-corporation
J.P. Guerin
Vice Chairman of the Board
Daily Journal Corporation
Los Angeles , CA
Sector: SERVICES / Publishing - Newspapers
Mr. Guerin is a private investor. Qualifications and Skills: Mr. Guerin has approximately 50 years of experience in business, working with both private and public companies. During that time, he has served on more than 20 boards of directors.
Mr. J. P. Guerin has been the Vice-Chairman and a Director of Daily Journal Corp. since 1977. Mr. Guerin has been Vice Chairman of PS Group (alternate name is PS Group Holdings Inc.) since 1997 and also its Director since January 30, 1996. Previously, he served as Chairman of PS Group Inc. ("PSG") Board of Directors from 1985 to 1991 and also as its Vice Chairman from 1991 to 1993. Prior to retiring in 2002, Mr. Guerin served as a Director of Lee Enterprises Incorporated, a company owning newspapers. He served as a Director of PSG from 1978 to the 1996 Reorganization was consummated.
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The Library of Congress Business Reference Services has every thing but the kitchen sink - how to assess the quality of management that is running the company.
http://www.loc.gov/rr/business/company/public.html
Check the quality of management: How competent is the management running the company? More importantly, how focused are they toward the company, customers, investors, and employees? In this age of rampant corporate greed, it's always a great idea to research the management of the company. The companies annual reports as well as newspaper/magazine articles are good places to get this information.
http://www.wikihow.com/Find-Great-Companies-to-Invest-In
Super Investor Portfolio Updates
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I'm not the least bit dumbfounded by Francis Chou's investment, who I greatly respect & admire.
Here is why I think he holds Qiao Xing Mobile:
The Explosion of Mobile Video
By QUENTIN HARDY
| February 14,
Mobile video is coming on stronger.
Cisco just released its annual five-year forecast for mobile data traffic, which projects that by 2016 mobile data will amount to 130 exabytes annually, 18 times current levels. That data figure is roughly the amount of data on 33 billion DVDs, or 813 quadrillion text messages
http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/14/the-explosion-of-mobile-video/
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Fairfax is bearish...jnj is defensive
Buffett is bullish buying growth selling defense
Dazel,
You hit the nail right on the head.
Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRK.B:NYSE
Buffett, Soros among latest tech-stock buyers
MarketWatch
7:25 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The world's biggest investors are plugging into big-name U.S. technology stocks.
From Apple Inc. to Yahoo Inc. , hedge-fund and other investors spied opportunities in the tech sector in the fourth quarter, according to regulatory filings late Tuesday.
Warren Buffett, for example, added to positions in Intel Corp. and IBM Corp. , according to Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s latest portfolio report, as of Dec. 31. Read more: Buffett sells Exxon; adds to IBM, Intel.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buffett-soros-among-latest-tech-stock-buyers-2012-02-14
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So much for that grand plan of "Network Vision" by geniuses at Sprint now.
Like I said before, I sure hope they have a good Plan B in place... Also, can someone powerful call for the head of Dan "the Hustle" Hesse? His days at Sprint are numbered!
From what I've read, the loan is $160 million and the $30 million went for fees. So the effective rate was 24%. There is a bunch of collateral backing it, too, for what that's worth.
brker_guy,
My yellow brker hat goes off to you with your call for the headless horseman, to deliver on a silver platter, a Hesse head.
stahleyp,
Do I detect robber barons using questionable practices?
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Well, now you know why Clearwire has been inching up everyday....
Give me an inch and I'll take it a mile. Clearwire can support Sprint's wireless network. Then run it by me again ok ;)
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Exclusive Interview with Allan Mecham
April 21, 2010
http://manualofideas.com/members/pmr201004_allan_mecham_interview.pdf
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Prem Watsa letter to Dakshana scholars. ... Short letter suggesting to read the book "Think and grow rich" by Napoleon Hill:
http://www.dakshana.org/Letter%20to%20Dakshana%20scholars.pdf
"I can tell you Dakshana scholars that it was the single best book that I have read and it changed my life forever."- Sincerely, Prem Watsa
"what the mind can conceive, the mind can achieve"
Thank you Parsad for creating this message board. It is the equivalent of what is called the "Master Mind" group, in the book titled "Think and Grow Rich" by Napolean Hill.
p. 251
ORGANIZED effort is produced through the coordination of effort of two or more people, who work toward a DEFINITE end, in a spirit of harmony.
The "Master Mind" may be defined as: "Coordination of knowledge and effort, in a spirit of
harmony, between two or more people, for the attainment of a definite purpose."
No individual may have great power without availing himself of the "Master Mind."
http://www.sacred-texts.com/nth/tgr/tgr15.htm
P.S. Thank you Prem Watsa for recommending this book.
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Prem Watsa letter to Dakshana scholars. ... Short letter suggesting to read the book "Think and grow rich" by Napoleon Hill:
http://www.dakshana.org/Letter%20to%20Dakshana%20scholars.pdf
"I can tell you Dakshana scholars that it was the single best book that I have read and it changed my life forever."- Sincerely, Prem Watsa
"what the mind can conceive, the mind can achieve"
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This probably one of the best books I have read on how to outperform the market and others. His focus is being different and correct. He also stress the importance of value and provides some tips on how to deal with market psychology and what creates underpriced assets.
Packer
Howard Marks, the chairman and cofounder of Oaktree Capital Management, is renowned for his insightful assessments of market opportunity and risk. After four decades spent ascending to the top of the investment management profession, he is today sought out by the world's leading value investors, and his client memos brim with insightful commentary and a time-tested, fundamental philosophy. Now for the first time, all readers can benefit from Marks's wisdom, concentrated into a single volume that speaks to both the amateur and seasoned investor.
Informed by a lifetime of experience and study, The Most Important Thing explains the keys to successful investment and the pitfalls that can destroy capital or ruin a career. Utilizing passages from his memos to illustrate his ideas, Marks teaches by example, detailing the development of an investment philosophy that fully acknowledges the complexities of investing and the perils of the financial world. Brilliantly applying insight to today's volatile markets, Marks offers a volume that is part memoir, part creed, with a number of broad takeaways.
Marks expounds on such concepts as "second-level thinking," the price/value relationship, patient opportunism, and defensive investing. Frankly and honestly assessing his own decisions--and occasional missteps--he provides valuable lessons for critical thinking, risk assessment, and investment strategy. Encouraging investors to be "contrarian," Marks wisely judges market cycles and achieves returns through aggressive yet measured action. Which element is the most essential? Successful investing requires thoughtful attention to many separate aspects, and each of Marks's subjects proves to be the most important thing.
"This is that rarity, a useful book."--Warren Buffett
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It appears Google thinks there is no problem in China.
Google Softens Tone on China
Two Years After Censorship Clash, Company Renews Push to Expand in World's Biggest Internet Market
* The Wall Street Jounal
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203436904577155003097277514.html
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Canada to enforce sanctions on Iranian immigrant investors
Order will apply to investor-class applicants seeking to transfer funds from Iran
* http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2012/01/19/pol-iran-investor.html
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*****Ben Graham******
It looks like you have a new MO. You now start your forum posts with an asterisks * to bring more attention to your posts.
How is it that you have this unique ability to piss me off with almost every post your write. I assume it is mission accomplished, as far as you are concerned. I made a long list in the earlier LVLT thread and now you have picked up a new habit, which is adding * to the start of new threads. Of course, your likely goal is to bring more attention to your posts. I believe it is very close to the level of a spammer with the mix of a troll.
If Sanjeev is reading this, I kindly ask him to remove topics that use extra characters to bring attention to their posts, not unlike highlighting all your crap in red, cap locks, italics, etc. You do them all and you stand out as the neighborhood dink here among a few thousand readers/posters. In my books, you are the #1 annoying person here, not necessarily because of your content (which I can easily ignore), but because of the way you try to enhance your content to the reader via highlighting, cap locks, italics, using references to great investors such as Mason H, WEB, etc., and now we can add the * to your arsenal of annoying posts.
FFHWatcher,
If an intelligent analysts was done on your posted message, I think the conclusion would be that you are a stalker who likes to harass my freedom to speak.
If Sanjeev is reading this, I kindly ask him to stop FFHWatcher from harassing me endlessly.
P.S. Thank you ValueCarl for your back up.
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that graph is excellent--it's something that you are aware of, but it is nice to see the returns spelled out.
The link to Southeastern Management was provided in the post above you. I'll spoon feed you to a link that you can easily find at the home page of SEAM.
Here is an example: http://www.longleafpartners.com/investment_offerings/mutual_funds/partners_fund/performance
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I'm so glad to see the below segment included at Southeastern Asset Management's new web site. When first watching O. Mason Hawkins present his chart at the Richard Ivey Business School, shown in this link:
http://www.bengrahaminvesting.ca/Resources/Video_Presentations/Guest_Speakers/2005/Hawkins_2005.htm
I thought it was so compelling. Now that it is also posted at SEAM's web site, is great!
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Buying with Large Margin of Safety
A significant discount between a stock's price and its intrinsic value (P/V) provides the margin of safety that helps protect capital from significant loss while giving us the potential to generate substantial returns.
The chart below illustrates the concept. We buy a business at $20/share, which is 50% of its $40 appraised value. Because it is a superior business with skilled management, our appraisal increases at 12% per year through cash earnings growth and free cash flow reinvestment. If the stock price reaches value after five years, we will have earned 29% per year. As the table shows, a higher P/V paid for a stock means a lower return.
http://www.longleafpartners.com/about_us/investment_approach
EDIT: Chart Image Inculed Below
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I don't think it's ridiculous given the execution risks in the next 2 years.
I'll admit I haven't a precise formula for calculating what the risk premium ought to be. Do you? Or are we just talking our emotions here.
BAC's discount is 50% relative to JPM (comparing tangible book valuations).
Expressed differently, in two years time BAC can haul in $30b plus after-tax (due to the NOLs). Yet a whole lot has to go terribly wrong between now and then to prevent that from happening. To me it just feels like the nasty "what if's" are discounted far too heavily.
Keep it simple. Compare tangible book value - I love NOL's like the LUK boys.
I get it -VALUE
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Bank of America - Buffett Intrinsic Value Analysis
NOPAT + Depreciation - CapEx - Net Working Capital Change. The risk free rate is the US treasury rate, a standard risk free measurement.
http://www.wikiwealth.com/buffett-intrinsic-value-analysis:bac
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I can completely relate to Eric here and think he epitomizes the way an individual value investor should run his book.
It appears that ERICOPOLY is adhering to what Warren Buffett thinks as well.
* Warren Buffett believes that it is most important to invest with a strong conviction.
* Diversification is a foolish idea if it means buying with low conviction.
* Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing.
* Diversification may preserve wealth, but concentration builds wealth.
* I put heavy weight on certainty. It's not risky to buy securities at a fraction of what they're worth. - WEB
I'm looking forward to ERICOPOLY taking advantage of Mr. Market big time!
Technology Will Save The World
in General Discussion
Posted
We can never be sure what will happen – and certainly not when – but it’s important to be prepared for what’s likely to lie ahead. And understanding the inevitable pendulum swing in the way investments are viewed – from weeds to flowers and back – is an essential ingredient in being able to do so.
Warren Buffett “I’ve commented about junk bonds that last year’s weeds have become this year’s flowers. I liked them better when they were weeds.”
Thank you Parsad, for planting a new crop of seeds for all of us to think ahead about. ;) ;D ;)
Invest in companies that are helping to stimulate the biggest change in communications technology in 100 years, like IBM, Intel, DirecTV, Fairfax & Berkshire Hathaway.