bluedevil

That's true, but the story is different when you look at the track record of the companies that have been under Fairfax management for the longest period of time. Between 1995 and 2008, Fairfax's Canadian subs (i.e., Northbridge) had favourable reserve development of 4.7% on a weighted average basis. And parsing the annual reports, only in the last couple years, since the CDS haul, has Prem characterized Fairfax's reserves as "conservatively" stated on a companywide basis.

It's been three full years now that Fairfax's combined ratio for North American insurance has been significantly above 100, despite low interest rates and what appears to be Fairfax's disciplined approach to the soft market. The hard market can't be *too* far away.

We know that the folks at Fairfax are very high on ICICI Lombard and hoping to raise their stake in the company to 49% as soon as Indian law allows it. But I wonder how that process will actually work. Does anyone know if Fairfax has a contractual right to go to 49% once the law allows it? If so, any insight on how the purchase price would be calculated? Relatedly, here are links to a couple articles on recent efforts to raise the FDI cap in India for insurance JVs (such as ICICI Lombard) to 49%. One writer seems to think the effort has suffered a "setback" but the other, quoting industry players, is not quite as negative. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Setback-for-FDI-hike-in-insurance/articleshow/7273249.cms http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/parliament-panel-raises-issuerural-reachfdi-cap-bill/421741/