BargainValueHunter
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Posts posted by BargainValueHunter
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Chamath is this generation's Bruce Berkowitz.
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State Street, Continental Building Products or the "Holy Grail"... Starbucks!
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Why would RAISING rates be such a bad idea?
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I can't think of anything more undervalued at the moment than IJR puts
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Re-reading this interview with Berkowitz...
https://www.thestreet.com/story/10086411/1/fairholmes-15-faves-from-berkshire-to-telecom.html
Where did THIS value investor go??? :o
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It has lagged 99 percent of rivals over five years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
I know you shouldn't pick one moment in time to judge performance but c'mon...
This isn't like the late 1990s when staunch value guys were investing in forgotten but highly profitable businesses while the whole world was obsessed with DotCom and Telecom.
This is a man who passed over HUNDREDS of great businesses for YEARS to double and triple down on both a man who seemed to be doing the opposite of what was needed to fix a giant retailer (Lampert) and a conviction that the whole Federal Government would be brought to heel by its very own court system (Freddie and Fannie).
And then you have JOE which can not POSSIBLY be one of the top 10 businesses in the United States.
I think to lag behind 99% of the other funds you should at LEAST be long volatility (which I feel is deeply undervalued at the moment) because at least that would kind of make sense.
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I can't figure out why (with natural gas being ultra-cheap year after year) there has not been a revolution of businesses, utilities and manufacturers ditching coal and petroleum and converting to nearly free NatGas.
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He just said in fairx conference call that sears worth $95/share and sears Canada worth $7.
Since 2017-07-06, Bruce has been dumping SRSC aggressively! Maybe he changed his mind.
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SC 13D/A 2017-07-06 SEARS CANADA INC COMMON SHARES SRSC 21,468,056 -94,918 N/A
SC 13D/A 2017-07-27 SEARS CANADA INC COMMON SHARES SRSC 21,433,443 -34,613 N/A
SC 13D/A 2017-08-04 SEARS CANADA INC COMMON SHARES SRSC 19,034,637 -2,398,806 N/A
SC 13D/A 2017-08-18 SEARS CANADA INC COMMON SHARES SRSC 17,241,837 -1,792,800 N/A
SC 13G/A 2017-08-24 SEARS CANADA INC COMMON SHARES SRSC 16,544,647 -697,190 N/A
SC 13G/A 2017-08-30 SEARS CANADA INC COMMON SHARES SRSC 8,811,785 -7,732,862 N/A
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Who would trust Berkowitz's word now after he has abandoned his value principles of the 90s and early 2000s. Remember when he talked publicly of his intent to hold Pfizer for a long time right before quietly dumping it...https://www.forbes.com/2009/08/21/berkowitz-fairholme-pfizer-intelligent-investing-buffett.html
And we have Pfizer. We have Forest Drugs, Forest Labs. We have Humana , and WellPoint, the health insurersHow has the health care sector done vs. Sears Holdings since 2009?
Berkowitz is just another Warren wannabe who had his time in the sun and is now in the wannabe graveyard with all the rest.
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Berkowitz loaded up on SHLD in Q1 it seems. He must still like the story. ???
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This current VIX situation feels a lot like what it felt like in 2005 when home prices in Las Vegas were obviously going to rise 20% per annum indefinitely and when IBM and General Electric were talked about by market watchers on CNNfn as takeover candidates by up and coming telecom players like JDS Uniphase in 1999.
There is an eerie "nothing to see here...this is the new normal" vibe to the market right now...
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Berkshire Hathaway’s 2013 annual letter offers clues as to what Buffett sees in Seritage. In the letter, Buffett discusses two real estate investments he made with his own funds in the 1980s and ’90s. One was a building in lower Manhattan near New York University in which he invested with partners in 1993, during a commercial real estate downturn. That building’s largest tenant occupied 20% of the space and was paying $5 per square foot. The other tenants were paying $70 per square foot.
“The expiration of this bargain lease in nine years was certain to provide a major boost to earnings,” Buffett wrote. In time, as the old lease expired, earnings tripled.
http://www.barrons.com/articles/lamperts-seritage-strategy-could-lead-to-long-term-gains-1492836691
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https://betterdwelling.com/city/toronto/marc-cohodes-short-canadian-real-estate/
“It’s international money laundering coming into Canada…regulations are very lax”, he further explained. “China has capital controls on their money, and Canada does not have respect for a nation that has capital controls”.Bloomberg estimates that US$500 billion in capital has been moved out of China by mostly individuals, with a significant portion of it landing in Canada. Much of that has been moved into the Toronto and Vancouver housing markets.
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...and here we are 5 years later and the Canadian portion of the bubble has only gotten larger according to Watsa:
Watsa helped Fairfax prosper in the credit crisis by betting on the decline of over-leveraged financial companies. He has warned as far back as the 2012 annual meeting that Canada’s housing prices could be too high. -
First the cocaine bust now this...
The short euphoria in the stock was largely due to an ongoing short campaign by prominent short seller, Kerrisdale Capital, which had been waging a long-running campaign against the company, and reiterated as recently as January that it continued to be short.Poor guy...
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Fairholme now owns 26.9% of Sears' outstanding shares, which are currently valued at $325 million. Berkowitz has taken a bath on his investment in Sears. Fairholme has been a Sears investor for more than a decade, having initially reported buying stock in the retailer during the third quarter of 2005, according to Bloomberg data. Fairholme's average cost on Sears, according to Bloomberg data, is $42.05 a share or 73% below current levels.
So to get a decent overall return on his many, many, many years of managing this position he has to make up for being underwater THEN beat the S&P 500 over the time period that he has chosen Sears Holdings over the SPY ETF.
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This is an old article from 2004 by James Altucher about an interesting side of Warren's investing. The original version can't be found on the 'Net so here is an old Blogspot mirror with the original text:
http://futuresasia.blogspot.com/2008/04/profitable-hobby-of-warren-buffett-by.html
Throughout 1999 and 2000, Burnham Pacific, an owner of shopping malls, was selling off its stores at a premium to the value of those stores recorded in the books. With the company trading at a discount to net asset value and a poison pill adopted to ward off a hostile takeover, shareholders were getting restless (and suing). Finally, at the end of 2000, shareholders approved a complete liquidation plan.Buffett bought more than 5% of the liquidating company in December 2001 and enjoyed the benefits of its final six months of liquidating properties for more than they were initially valued at.
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The 2016 Annual Letter is out...
http://www.fairholmefundsinc.com/Letters/Funds2016AnnualLetter.pdf
Bottom line: Sears has degraded net asset values, but there is still much left and the company is fixing its cash drain.It is hard to respect a man who, at some point, can NOT admit a mistake. Buffett has always been great about admitting mistakes.
(By the way...I revived this old thread to point out that some members of this board seem to have a greater mind for value investing than Morningstar's Manager of the Decade™. If Berkowitz had listened to those above this post and perhaps kept his Pfizer, White Mountains Insurance Group and Bank of America holdings instead of doubling and tripling down on Eddie Lampert...)
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Did Berkowitz close this fund?
And why has Fairholme been up recently while its holdings have sank or at least tread water?
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Long 20% out of the money puts on the most liquid "Small Cap 600" ETF and Transports ETF.
Also any stock or ETF that is best suited to capitalizing on the out-of-left-field whims of President Trump. :P
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Syncora Holdings 2016
Sears Holdings 2006 to 2016
Priceline 2002 to 2016
Apple 2001 to 2015
Lehman Brothers 2006 to 2008
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From last summer...
White Mountain is a very tightly run, opportunistic buyer and seller of businesses, particularly insurance-related companies. The company has one of the best records on Wall Street for retiring stock at attractive prices over a long period of time. Over 30-plus years, it has retired 90% of its outstanding shares. Almost all of those shares were retired at a discount to tangible book value and were value-accretive on a GAAP basis.They also have a large and very conservatively positioned the investment portfolio, which has held down their earnings because its duration is short relative to the indices. They have a big cash cushion. Ultimately White Mountain is either going to start increasing dividends, continue to buy back shares at favorable prices or external conditions will change, which will give them an opportunity to buy an entire business at a very favorable valuation, which they have done in the past.
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SYCRF
SCHF (ETF)
FTP
MBI
FIG
Chamath
in General Discussion
Posted
I was talking about a palpable lack of humility while being interviewed by financial journalists.