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Gopinath

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Posts posted by Gopinath

    GEICO Auto renewal Premium Jump

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    We have the similar experience with GEICO price increases, we decided to switch to Progressive as they quoted similar prices to our previous Geico premium. We even reached out to Geico for a price match, Geico couldn't even come closer on the negotiation. GEICO definitely lost us, one of the long term customers and never had any  accident claims history.

    Fairfax India new issue

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    Discount will be there may be a popular sentiment (otherwise it won't trade at a huge discount now), but how much is the question relative to their compensation? The current discount is too large, whichever way you want to capitalize that fee/incentives.

     

    Out of 700 planes (both arrivals and departure) daily, ~100 of them are international. Its a small pie relative to the domestic, it collects more than 4 times average fee per passenger relative to the domestic customer. It will eventually grow both the customers and fee per customer over time as they are doubling the capacity in the terminal and runway.

     

    They can bring in cash as they wish, plenty of ways to monetize these assets partially. They are in the process of splitting 'Fairchem'. They are considering taking the airport public when the valuation and opportunity makes sense. Although the profits are not streamlined up to the FIH, each business stands on their own cash profits and growing without needing support from FIH.

     

    I would be surprised if they don't raise money from other investors and get paid somehow if they prefer that over time. Current possibilities seem difficult as both the discount in asset value vs assets in the holding company. It would be a stretch to think FIH will become an asset light fee generating entity with other people's capital in the near future.

    Back test Experiment - Data Collection

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Hi Members,

     

    I am trying to collect historical data for back testing some of the key variables that I think are important to predict the future performance of their companies/stocks.

     

    For Example,

     

    Assumption: Lets say the insiders large ownership in the business makes the stock/business worth valuable over time. I would like to collect data for all companies to see if there is any positive correlation between insider ownership and stocks/business value over time and also relative to the other companies(which don't have high insider ownership) performance.

     

    The other variables that I am interested in

     

    High Return on invested capital

    Low Debt to Assets and equity

    Low capital intensity

    continuous stock repurchases.

     

    I like to see if anyone has done this kind of study before. Any help on collecting data would be greatly helpful to me. Feel free to send me a pm for further if you prefer.

     

    Thank you so much!

    Gopinath

     

     

     

    ACG cup competition - Tampa bay area

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Hi Folks,

     

    I am participating in a company valuation/advisory competition organized by Tampa bay assn called "ACG cup competition" possibility of representing University of Tampa. I am attaching a case(imaginary company), which is part of the internal competition in University of Tampa, 3 teams from UT get to compete in ACG. I hope to be one of them.

     

    Please share your opinion on the questions listed in the case. I highly value your opinion and I can use it and supplement with my ideas and reasons.

     

    Thank you so much in advance, feel free to contact me if you have any questions.

     

    Regards,

    Gopi

    Consulting_Team_Assignment.docx

    Chimes_Family_Stores.docx

    Chimes_Family_Stores_Inc..xlsx

    Competitors.xls

    Anyone has study on year end tax loss selling strategy?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I was wondering if anyone has study/ historical results on the other side of the tax loss selling crowd? Buying cheapest companies in the year end(now), sell them in the following year after the price returns back to normalcy??

     

    Given that there have been some stock prices decimated, especially oil stocks and many of the recent spin offs, I wonder if there is something that we can pick up.

     

    Thanks!

    Time to buy Fairfax again?

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    Well, i think these posts are not at all talking about the economic goodwill after the businesses have been acquired and put it on the balance sheet(with accounting goodwill). Take a look at the company like Odyssey Re, they must have bought it for some $X, now the business must have been grown and streamlined & made it better.. this will not show up in the accounting goodwill..

     

    Buffett made an analogy about Geico valuation through accounting goodwill versus, valuation through economic good will.. Based on the book value, it may look like $2 billion(including accounting goodwill) or so.. but the business have grown so much which produces premiums/underwriting profits almost or more than Progressive which is worth about $15 Billion.. If you valued that based on profits, likelyhood of staying power, the business value is so much more than stated book value.. Book value may not be a true representation of value whether including acc goodwill or not! Just my 2 cents!

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