ugadawg_98
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Posts posted by ugadawg_98
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On 10/25/2021 at 11:09 AM, ValueMaven said:
Thanks! Will spot check this and clean it up a bit. Very helpful - given that we are approaching nearly $50B worth of buybacks at this point
This kind of thing is helpful, showing where WB is buying. I added at $275 yesterday afternoon.
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On 11/11/2021 at 9:45 AM, ValueMaven said:
BRK is turning into a serial cannibal of its own shares. Teledyne 2.0 ?
INSHALLAH!!!
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Buybacks continuing at very nice pace while cash build continues in spite of them.
If this isn’t balance sheet nirvana, I don’t know what is.
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Was Singleton as forthcoming as Buffett when it came providing information to value the company? I think I read in outsiders (may be some other place) that Singleton wasn't very open in providing information to value Teledyne. This information asymmetry can explain his ability to buy 90% of the outstanding shares at advantageous prices. This would especially be handicap for non-professional investors during 1960-1980 era when information disseminated slower than today.
Two things here: First, you are exactly correct that in 1960s to 1980s, info did disseminate slower than today.
On the other hand, as far as valuation and dissemination of that valuation, we don’t really know what WB thinks BRK is worth, nor, in fact, do we actually know if he is buying and how much. Let me give a recent illustration of this gap between reality and what people *thought* they knew:
Recall that when BRK modified its buyback structure, there were initial purchases made around $207. When the market fell in December, there was belief that WB was buying heavily as BRK had fallen into the $190s. Later, we learned this assumption was false. My point here is that the “information gap” still exists, if somewhat narrowed by technology.
From a transparency standpoint, a tender is better than open market purchases because you’re being told what’s being offered. I would note that Buffett’s repeated praise of Singleton and his tenders was never qualified by fairness concerns.
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For those unfamiliar with the history, I attach a couple links:
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I know this has been discussed on the “tender” thread, but I’d love to hear WB’s answer to the following:
“Warren, both you and Charlie have (on more than one occasion) praised the late Dr Henry Singleton of Teledyne as one of the greatest allocators of capital of all time. Dr Singleton was known for numerous cash tenders for Teledyne stock. Given that Berkshire has changed its buyback policy, would the company consider a cash tender?”
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Is the market spooked (or should it be) by BRK’s large AAPL position?
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I bought NSS, BRKB, ET and LVMUY
I’m looking hard at KDP, ETP_pb, VER_pf and BAC.
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Don’t know if anyone else has posted this, but it’s worth a read. I note that WB has spoken favorably of Dr Singleton in the past, and since this thread was started regarding the possibility of a tender, this article seems relevant:
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There's a better discussion on this on the Investment ideas forum, so I'm posting there now.
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My analysis wasn't as sophisticated, but I concur. This closes next quarter, so we'll know soon.
Price is truth.
I put around 1% into DPS around $118.50 too because I think at that price we're paying close to JAB+BDT purchase cost
Here is how I think about it:
JAB+BDT paid $9 Billion in cash plus Keurig, a business with $1.07 B run rate EBIT to get 1.218 B shares of the combined company. Let's say Keurig is worth 10X EBIT or $10.7 B, subtract $3.3 B of debt, Keurig's equity is worth $7.4 B.
So JAB+BDT paid $9 B in cash plus $7.4 B in Keurig equity to acquire 1.218 B shares of DPS+Keurig or $13.5 per share.
At $118.50, with $103.75 cash pay out, I paid $14.75 per share or about 9% premium to JAB-BDT's cost.
2018 PF EPS (ex restructuring costs) will be around $1.05 growing to $1.27 (only taking into account cost saves) by 2020. I think it's a reasonable price to pay for this type of business plus the chance to partner with JAB and BDT.
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I posted about this on the "general" board and it probably should have been here, so.....
a couple of thoughts:
1) Trading has been wild and you're exactly right it's traded in a roughly $20 range all morning. The market clearly can't value the stub.
2) In its old incarnation, GMCR was heavily short. I didn't short it, but I knew smart people who did.
3) DPS is a good asset. They seem to have a better grip on the move away from colas to non-cola softdrinks. As an aside here, I owned DPS in the low teens after the Cadbury spinoff and sold in the $50s some years later, so, based on today's pricing, maybe my perspective is no better than the GMCR shorts.
I actually bought some DPS today at $118s. At that price, with the $103.75 cash component, the stub is under $15, paying a .60 dividend, its a 4% yield. That's a simplistic, non rigorous way of looking at it, but post closing, I would wager the stub is more likely to open in the $20s than at $15.
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DPS is being bought by Keurig/Green Mountain.
I was buying this morning in the $118s.
You get $103.75 plus stub of new business.
Cost basis on stub around $15. Stub to pay .60 per annum dividend or 4% yield
Thoughts?
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This company was mentioned on another board and drew my attention. It sold a 25% stake in its Gibraltar project for $180 million, and just got provincial approval for its large Prosperity project. Looks cheap if you extrapolate the same value to the remaining 75% of Gibraltar, and figure in a respectable value for Prosperity.
Had conference call today, still archived.
http://www.tasekomines.com/tko/Home.asp
Anyone here familiar with TGB?
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There's a writeup on Seeking Alpha as well as the last transcript, but not much else. Does anyone follow it?
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This is a mortgage REIT that just raised its quarterly dividend to .17. About 16.5% yield at current quote. Got interested when mentioned on another board. Is affiliated with Annaly (NLY). Seems to have loaded up with mortgages during the panic at low prices.
Anyone familiar?
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From feast of ideas in March, now famine. Wow. I should have held every preferred or
exchange-trade bond I bought in 1q.
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Sold the NCT_pb I bought 11/18 at $7.85 at a sale price of $8.75 yesterday. I think they're worth more, but market action bothers me and want to keep and build my cash hoard.
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NCT is a Fortress-affiliated MREIT holding a variety of commercial and residential CDOs, REIT debt and other fixed income instruments.
They made a prior tender offer in early October that would have stripped its preferreds of their dividend rights in exchange for a below-par ($25) cash payment (granted, these things did trade below $1 in the last year). This led to a revolt by several large holders and now earlier this week, the company made a second tender that would not remove the dividend rights but still required a tender by a majority of pfd holders.
I note that these preferreds (NCT_pb, NCT_pc, NCT_pd) are cumulative and will have the right to seat two independent directors if the dividend arrearage goes through April 30th. This may be a motive for managment as well as the fact that a tender at a steep discount should be highly accretive to common. I don't think the preferreds would trade at par even if they were paying, but I do believe the tender does not reflect their intrinsic value, given that NCT is cash flow positive and has meaningful excess capital. I think this tender fails and NCT comes back with a higher number, maybe one that offers a combination of cash and common so the pfd. holders get some upside participation. The April 30th date would also tend to be an incentive for NCT to get a deal done.
Wednesday's tender offer:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Newcastle-Announces-Cash-bw-1793475534.html?x=0&.v=1
Their most recent conf call is here:
Anyone familiar with it?
Buffett/Berkshire - general news
in Berkshire Hathaway
Posted
True. And the triple play of Apple’s buyback plus Apple’s dividend, plus BRK’s buyback just adds rocket fuel to that return.