roughlyright
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Posts posted by roughlyright
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I was in the same boat as you when Andre released the tokens. I bought as much as I could. While I like the model, the earnings aren't exactly stable. Most of the TVL build up was the result of unsustainable yields on over inflated defi valuations. I sold everything on the run up around $30k.
The thing that stood out during the defi mini bubble, zero effort anon forks was able to siphon quite a bit of value. Imagine what focused efforts with VC funding can accomplish.
That is an interesting take. what other tokens do you like now? YFI is planning to release their V2 contracts in short time. I am thinking that is a massive game changer
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I have no association with them in any form. I just found that write up to be convincing.
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I was buying https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/yearn-finance when its price was $900 on July 18th.
Today I have added lot more. It went as high as $42,000. But today I added lot more.
One of the best value investments, as it has a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.
If anyone wants to read the full analysis, it is posted here: https://www.mechanism.capital/yfi-frameworks-for-fundamental-valuation/
I can see YFI token price beat the price of Berkshire Hathaway A shares.
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I was buying https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/yearn-finance when its price was $900 on July 18th.
Today I have added lot more. It went as high as $42,000. But today I added lot more.
One of the best value investments, as it has a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.
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Again perky and behaving like a safe haven asset.
Also positive today while GLD and 10-year treasury are down.
Could it simply be that Bitcoin is simply in an uptrend and not have anything to do with Coronavirus or Iranian tensions?
On this note, Bitcoin obviously didn't behave much like the other safe Haven's through 2018 either. I think it's a mistake to think of it as akin to holding gold or treasuries. With those you expect NEGATIVE correlation with equities in a downturn.
Rather, I'd expect Bitcoin's correlation with equities AND safe haven assets to be fairly close to zero in both healthy and unhealthy economic environments.
BTC and the rest are up for 3 reasons. First it is a safe haven asset now like Treasuries going up during uncertainty. Just look at the track record.
Second, it is now possible that coronavirus will end globalization and migration will end even internal migration. Who will use bills if the virus survives on surfaces for 9 days. Who will go into public? Yes the sun will save us this year as it cuts virus survival dramatically. But will we have summer flu considering the outbreaks in tropical places? (Although many Chinese people avoid the sun). EU is already incredibly weak and now this? Sovereign default, bank failures and bail-ins cannot be ruled out. It does not matter if the coronavirus is a real scare. Jon Rappaport makes an interesting argument that it is another false narrative. Who knows? All I see is a madness of crowds. Animal spirits could drive crypto incredibly in this environment.
Third, crypto is being accelerated by leverage and the opportunity to earn up to 10% interest yet borrow as low as 3.5%.
Consider Tezos, ETH and now Litecoin. On Litecoin you can earn 10% interest. See Cred and Litecoin foundation. You can borrow with crypto security at less than 5% now. See Celsius Network. On Celsius 80% of interest paid back to lenders. Super efficient compared to banks where they pay 1% and charge you 25%. Banks cannot compete with their legacy overhead and debt loads. EU sovereign debt is double doomed now for this reason along with China's economy and migration now being frozen due to the coronavirus. Think how much EU depends on tourism. And what use is the belt and road initiative if you can hardly use it? Bail-ins will impoverish anyone who fails to get into crypto. US will boom due to capital concentration and sanity. This capital concentration in US and Canada is a glorious opportunity to borrow on real estate at low rates then invest in crypto. US and Canadian banks will do fine. So you can borrow Canadian dollars at 3% and buy Tezos, then stake and earn 6% with almost no risk as all you do is stake, for instance, on the Kraken exchange. What happens when Tezos is used to tokenize real estate and you get the liquidity of selling tokens? Mortgage risk and borrowing risk drop significantly as you could sell portions of your property in tokens. If this occurs Tezos tokens will escalate in value with demand as supply is limited and real estate becomes a liquid easily trade-able asset. Come on. Have you ever seen such an asymmetric opportunity?
The implication is obvious why would you hold fiat? Dump fiat buy certain crypto, lend at up to 10% buy more. Repeat. Obviously Litecoin price will escalate as more abandon fiat and join in. With BTC you can earn almost 9% on Celsius and then use the interest tokens to pay for a loan which costs 3.5% interest (they keep the risk low by requiring security of double or four times the crypto as security with more security giving a lower rate). Say you buy Litecoin then earn 10%. Litecoin of course will go up dramatically. Finally watch ETH and DEFI. $1B loaned already. To borrow you post ETH as security. So the supply of trade-able ETH is now dropping every day and at an accelerating rate and they plan to reduce the inflation rate to zero. Consider how a whale attack will trigger the automatic sales under the smart contracts which will cause further ETH sales. So ETH price will be on an upward channel with lots of buying opportunities.
This bubble is going to be way bigger than the 2017 bubble due to leverage and because it will be double propelled because of the weakening fiat. Fiat will weaken if the collapsing supply chains due to coronavirus caused cost-push inflation. What do you expect central banks to do when they are faced with banks whose interest rate derivatives too often are betting on continued low interest rates? How long before banks have to admit "mark to model" was always a phoney premise? CBs only have one tool. They will print to buy sovereign debt until Hayek's instability hypothesis comes true. Why else are all CBs now working feverishly on crypto? Perhaps when the banks collapse and the governments default they will issue sovereign crypto to restore stability. They have to allow the existing crypto system in the meantime because otherwise the collapse would be too harsh. The discrimination favouring CB crypto to take over the existing crypto infrastructure will take time so in the meantime we have an exceptional opportunity because of this black swan. Just don't forget to move your crypto profits into tangible assets before the "Empire Fights Back".
Very thoughtful and cogent post! fiat world has no clue what kind of developments are happening in the crypto world. They seemed to assume that whatever happened in the last 50 years, will just continue for the next 50. Permissionless innovation can grow at an exponential pace, not a linear rate. People can build a decentralized bank, with code, while sitting anywhere in the world. how are these banks going to compete with their cost structures?
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If you bought #Bitcoin
1 day ago: Up 14%
1 week ago: Up 41%
1 month ago: Up 61%
3 months ago: Up 222%
6 months ago: Up 240%
1 year ago: Up 108%
2 years ago: Up 400%
3 years ago: Up 1840%
4 years ago: Up 5300%
5 years ago: Up 2470%
6 years ago: Up 12800%
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Bitcoin isn't capable of handling the transaction volume that's necessary to become a currency or medium of exchange. And to the argument that some holders aren't willing to sell at any price, there is a sizable portion of Bitcoin that cannot be sold at any price because the holders lost access to their private keys.
The ultimate problem with holding any cryptocurrency like Bitcoin or Ethereum with the expectation that this technology is the future medium for financial transactions is that a new cryptocurrencies are being created for commercial use. Just like Facebook created Libra, credit card companies, the Fed, banks, etc. can all build their own cryptocurrencies that work for their specific needs. The technology definitely can make transactions like international wires and real estate closing which currently take several days (or weeks) to complete and make them as quick running a credit card. Ultimately, that's a boon to the banking industry, bank customers, regular people sending money across borders, etc. but it's tough to see how that translates to a higher value for Bitcoin specifically.
Is there a reason you are purposely ignoring the bitcoin = gold thesis?
Yes, there is. I don’t like gold.
I don't either. I do like gold at a 95% discount though.
To be fair, the fact that I don’t like gold isn’t negating the thesis that crypto = gold. I am sure for some people it is and that may be good enough. I don’t know where the 95% discount is coming from - the market cap of gold vs crypto?
No.
Crypto != gold.
Bitcoin = gold.
There is a big difference. People keep wanting to confabulate "crypto" with "bitcoin" and vice versa. Even the name of this thread itself was changed from "BTC - Bitcoin" to "Cryptocurrencies". In that fundamental misunderstanding is where some will profit and others will be left behind. It's like changing every discussion about Amazon.com to "online shopping" and saying it's all the same.
Exactly! you made a great point. I see this happening all the time.
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I posted an idea in the investment board. I don't see it today. What happened?
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They did not offer investments to any US investors. It explicitly forbade them from investing. Bitfinex did a lot of KYC to screen them out
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Very good call! In pre-sale, I heard the minimum investment they accepted was $1 million. How did you manage to get in?
I agree with all the risks you mentioned. But the reward is worth the risk and Bitfinex is registered in Hong Kong and not subject to US laws.
What other tokens do you like?
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Hello All,
In this commentary, I sent to partners I talked about $LEO token. In the interest of full disclosure, I am long. I am trying to understand where I am going wrong in my thinking and get the feedback from the group here. In my view, this is a good value investment.
Roughly right
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Mentioning Chainlink once more as Mainnet version 1.0 goes live May 30th.
This project is probably the most important in crypto.
It is already 20% of my portfolio. What other tokens do you like?
I don't like other tokens as their use case isn't so clearly necessary to me. If i had to choose a currency I'd say Ethereum.
Off-chain computation with chainlink is absolutely the one.
What about bitcoin? you don't hold any bitcoin ?
I am sure you know that bitcoin halving is supposed to happen in May of 2020. That will make bitcoin harder than gold. First time in the course of human history that we have a synthetic commodity that is harder than gold.
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Mentioning Chainlink once more as Mainnet version 1.0 goes live May 30th.
This project is probably the most important in crypto.
It is already 20% of my portfolio. What other tokens do you like?
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Mentioning Chainlink once more as Mainnet version 1.0 goes live May 30th.
This project is probably the most important in crypto.
I already own lot of LINK. Very high quality project. What other tokens do you like?
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'Store of Value' is THREE things;
1) the 'store' itself, 2) the cost to 'transact' with the store, and 3) the anticipated length of the storage period.
If I used my house as the 'store', the cost is maybe a low 3-6% (buy & sell commissions), but my 'store' is not unique.
If I used Bitcoin as the 'store', the most recent 12 month nominal loss on sale (transaction cost) had I sold - would has been very high, but my 'store' is unique.
But if I intended to hold that Bitcoin for 'N' years, and could expect a nominal fiat currency gain on sale (because of inflation) when I sell, then Bitcoin is a great store!
Yes the tech is wonderful.
But I just want the 'store of value' to be able to give me my money back, anywhere, when I want, at a net zero cost.
Whether that 'store of value' is BTC, diamonds, gold, carpets, cars, art, houses, or sea shells - I don't really care.
Look around you ....
Where are the rich people 'storing their wealth' ?
Houses, social connections, stock/bonds ........ BTC is far down the list.
SD
It is true that today people use stocks and bonds today to store wealth. but once it becomes apparent to investors how scarce bitcoin is, money will rush from other stores of value, like precious metals, stocks, bonds, and fiat currency deposits. You want to skate the where the puck is going to be not where it is today.
Another advantage of bitcoin is that you don't need to perform a detailed analysis of any company and trust the accounting of a stock. It remains independent of all the risks that come from investing in stocks and the dependence on Federal Reserve. Many studies have established that bitcoin market is uncorrelated to other traditional assets. Today close to 9 trillion dollars worth bonds have negative nominal yields, let alone real yield. If 5% of it moves to BTC, what will happen to the price of bitcoin?
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I would say changing the supply of bitcoin has been tried 100s of times already. Some people have counted more than 200 forks of bitcoin code and nobody adopts them. Every one of them, 50 million or so users have come to the bitcoin network because of immutable monetary policy.
So anyone who owns as small a 1 satoshi ( that is 100 millionth of a bitcoin) is not going to agree for any sort of dilution. So the users who run full nodes will never consent to the change. Why would anyone willing to lose their money? With fiat money, inflation is forced upon us by central banks printing of currency. nobody wants their money diluted.
so if anyone creates a fork of bitcoin, obviously they can increase the supply to 21 Quadrillion or whatever number they want. But the question is why would the users, merchants, miners, speculators, developers, and all the exchanges, CME, CBOE, NYSE will abandon bitcoin, and voluntarily move to something that dilutes its value?
The second argument is that nobody is in control of bitcoin. No human, no company, no government. The moment, someone copies the code and changes some parameters, that means he is in control of that coin. That will suffer from the same exact problems we face today with fiat currencies and having central banks in charge. Why will the humanity as a whole will abandon a currency which not controlled by anyone and gives that control over to some idiot?
Today the amount of energy consumed by bitcoin network is close to 7 trillion laptops. If you want to run a centralized party, you don't need to expend all of this energy. You could have a simple database on a single laptop and run your bitcoin node. Why bother with decentralization? money is just a number in the database. We can hand over the control of the money supply to a single laptop and one trusted smart guy. This will save us a lot of energy and we run the database on MySql database and few lines code. Next day, FBI will break down his door and put that single guy in jail. My point is that bitcoin is extremely redundant for a reason. We want the money supply to be controlled by mathematics than corrupt politicians. Without the power of the decentralized network, it will be easily run over by our corrupt politicians, who control all the military.
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You might want to be remind yourself that you are ONLY talking Bitcoin here,
and NOT the other crypto.
You might also want to consider human nature.
The store of value is based on a maximum 21M coin, a number set by humans. People change, key folks die, circumstances change.
Todays 21M limit can, and probably will, change at some point in the future.
And recognize that the store of value ..... also has to hold its value.
Yesterdays $1.00 Bitcoin, selling for 2c today, hasn't exactly done its 'store of value' job very well.
SD
No idea what you are talking about here. If you have invested in $25 into bitcoin in May 2010, It would have been worth $40 million dollars today. That is a simple fact. Verify this yourself.
At the time when this article is written it was worth 82 million. Today, the same 10,000 bitcoins are worth, $40 Million dollars. It is quite obvious that Crypto Assets are the best performing asset on a 10-year basis with a huge margin.
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People who write off bitcoin without taking a deep dive, need to spend at least a week understanding the technology.
I recommend people to read this article, which explains the case for bitcoin very well.
https://medium.com/@vijayboyapati/the-bullish-case-for-bitcoin-6ecc8bdecc1
Please offer your criticism to the above post. fiat money has become hot potato money, as it is a bad store of value. Bitcoin has already proven itself as a good store of value based on the last 10 years of history. It is almost inevitable that more and more people will realize how scarce this asset is with time, and realize how immutable its monetary policy is.
Today we have 193 countries. I take one individual from each country and ask them the same question to all the 193 people. How many bitcoins will be in circulation in the January 1st, 2050? I will get the same exact answer down to the 8th decimal about the number of bitcoins and I will get the same exact answer from all the 193 people. The reason we get the same answer because all the 193 countries agree on mathematics and know how to calculate the supply of coins based on a simple formula. Do you agree or disagree?
Now, I ask all the 193 individuals to tell me how many units of their fiat currency will exist in the January 1st, 2050 from their own country. Nobody will be able to give me an answer. Why? nobody on this planet knows how many units of fiat currency of their country will exist in 2050 as it is controlled by politicians and their cronies. Therein lies the value proposition of bitcoin and its immutable monetary policy.
Eventually, it becomes a simple question. I have currency here that is inflating at a rate of 0.0001% per year and another currency that is inflating at a rate of 8%. Where should I store the fruits of my labor or wealth? In other words, which is a better store of value? each person will ask this question and will come to the same conclusions. In my view, Immutable monetary policy is a powerful weapon carried by bitcoin and wages war against all fiat currencies and even against gold which inflates at a rate of 1.7% every year.
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My pick for 2019 is Genesis Vision. Currently trading at $12. Market cap is $53 million. Today they have launched the Genesis Vision network. I wrote an article on Medium today describing why it makes sense.
https://medium.com/@samikkurty/genesis-vision-platform-launch-2226a6a7651
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don't jump to conclusions too quickly. Nobody said anything about leverage or CDS.
recording a trader's trades on the blockchain will ensure that they cannot cheat. The smart contract is written so that the system can determine profit or loss resulting from the trader's trading activity. It divides trader's incentive fees and the investor's portion ( which most of the fund administrator's do) and transfers money back to the investor at the end of his trading program. Brokers who have trading volume exceeding $10 trillion dollars annually have signed with their platform.
https://blog.genesis.vision/maxing-out-with-lmax-3cdf3f578c3b
I recommend people to read the white paper and come to your own conclusions.
https://genesis.vision/white-paper-eng.pdf
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This is a utility token. You need to purchase the token in order to invest in their genesis vision platform. You give your fiat dollars to the manager, who trades in the Forex markets via Meta Trader tool. Metatrader is one of largest trading tool used by the Forex traders. Forex markets are huge, like $3 to $4 trillion dollars a day and lot bigger than stock market.
It uses the blockchain to record all the trades of a trader and assigns profits or losses to the investor via immutable ledger of the blockchain. Basically it moves the hedge fund industry to blockchain. Do more research and the team is very good on executing on their plans
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If multi-bagger ideas, also involve crypto-assets, I recommend people to buy GVT token. Today it is currently traded at $12 per token.
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/genesis-vision/#markets
They have a working product and the team has done a superb job on delivering on their promise. I expect this to do very well in the next one year. This is a utility token which will be used once the platform goes live on October 30th. dig deep into the token and value speaks for itself.
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Today I found out in the Murray Stahl's conference call that they are involved in bitcoin mining and made a huge investment in crypto-mining. I found this really interesting that even Fidelity was mining bitcoin since 2015!
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I check bitcoin price at least 5-7 times a day even though I have no stake in it. I wonder once I do and if it falls a lot , I would be glued to it as it trades 24 hours. Scary. So am trying to see where approx. the bottom may be. One is mining cost that could still go down with lower energy cost and if they end up mining bitcoin more than 21M.
Roubini says bitcoin could drop between $20 and $89 (says bubble to the power of 2 or 3). Is this guy reliable?
I think there is zero probability that will happen. It will be interesting if Roubini actually puts his money where his mouth is and take this bet with me on longbets site. I am open to anyone who wants to bet with me on this :-)
Token YFI
in General Discussion
Posted
Actually that was the old model. There is vote that is going to turn this into a 2 and 20 fund. It is a community-run hedge fund. It is trustless. So their fees will grow dramatically from where they are.