Just my 2c but these kind of ideas suck. No offense to the author. The reasons are simple though. Its too macro. Too complex. Too many things that can go wrong that dont allow you to make money even if your thesis is right. And at the moment, too many people are thinking its a good idea too because of what just happened with Russia. Its like the people saying you should buy puts after the markets gone down 10%.
You would have just just as well, if not better owning VIX calls or US index puts as you would have shorting Russian stocks before the Ukraine thing unfolded. Just keep it simple and stay in your own backyard.
Gregmal nails it here, I would add that I think 99% of the time, trying to do what this guy is suggesting ends up losing you money... it's fun conversation while holding a cigar, and a glass of whisky while playing armchair napoleon with your friends by the fireplace, but you will lose money... and if you don't lose money, its actually worse, since you will then have the illusion that you were a genius and you are then likely to lose even more money by trying to repeat what was likely just plain silly luck
Short Taiwan?
in General Discussion
Posted
Gregmal nails it here, I would add that I think 99% of the time, trying to do what this guy is suggesting ends up losing you money... it's fun conversation while holding a cigar, and a glass of whisky while playing armchair napoleon with your friends by the fireplace, but you will lose money... and if you don't lose money, its actually worse, since you will then have the illusion that you were a genius and you are then likely to lose even more money by trying to repeat what was likely just plain silly luck