Dooba
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Posts posted by Dooba
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I can't believe the share price has barely budged since the letter came out. Continuing to add while the getting is good.
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Roughly another $625mm in annual dividend income from those two.
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Verizon and Chevron LOL!
8.6bb investment in Verizon. $4bb in Chevron.
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Imagine,
www.joshuakennon.com/warren-buffetts-12-billion-disney-mistake/
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I dream of Apple + Disney
I can't see it being Disney. They have one of the best brands around, but future cash flows are just way too hard to forecast right now, so I don't know how they would arrive at a valuation with any reasonable probability. I am a Disney shareholder (would not buy at today's prices), and I have no idea what the future of Disney is going to look like because it is still the early innings of DTC. I see multiple paths to significant monetization of their IP in the future, but there is significant uncertainty right now, and it's nonetheless getting Netlflix type multiples. It would shock me if Uncle Warren is a buyer right now.
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General Electric is far more possible than Boeing, IMHO.
Larry Culp cut his teeth at Danaher and he is well known name.
Its aviation exposure is an actual positive with the recovery in Aftermarket and 737 MAX pulling its weight on production side. Think about it. The bulk of commercial aircraft flying out there either have engines from GE, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce or Safran. With the first two + Safran dominating the narrow-body market.
Its health care is a positive as well. The big question mark were on its Power division (they wrote off the bad part of Alstom) and GE Capital, the latter is being dismantled completely except for financing that is needed to supports its industrial operations. Its renewables (which i dont know much about) can only be a positive.
In 2012, GE Capital was 31% of revenues now it is less than 10%.
Aviation was 13% of sales in 2012 and now it is 34%. Long term debt has gone down from $220 billion to ~$60 billion.
I think General Electric will rip and will ride the opening economy and rotation to value trade.
Interesting thesis. I haven't been paying much attention to GE because I thought its management was crap, but you've got me interested in taking another look.
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I would also love to see Buffett snap up Markel (trading at 1.2x book right now). That would be a great cannon shot (but doubt it would a minority stake through open mkt purchases).
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I agree. I think it would be much more likely to be Facebook, than Google at today's prices. I thought Alphabet was a huge value relative to the rest of the FANG a few years ago when it was trading around $850 and started displaying some value characteristics. To me, it fit into Bufett and Munger's "wonderful company at a reasonable price" mantra given its cash flows, growth profile, and strong moat (although I'm sure Charlie and Warren hate its SBC practices). I was fortunate to pull the trigger, and was able to add to it at $1100-1200s back, and then again in the $1400-1500s in Aug (making it my largest position and a long term punch card hold). But at $2100, it's had a really nice run and I frankly hope BRK isn't buying it at these prices. I think Facebook is now looking like Google did a couple years ago (minus the significant moat), and is displaying some value characteristics relative to its growth profile, cash hoard, and free cash flows. I took a position after recent earnings when the stock didn't move. To me, FB is the more reasonable buy at today's prices.
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Thanks, a lot of back of the envelope math and I definitely overlooked the foreign holdings not being reported in the 13-F, but carried on the balance sheet under the equity investments. Given BYD and the recent trading company investments, it's clear it's not $16bb, and may not even be half that. On the other hand, it's clearly something he is building a position in, or he wouldn't be making use of the SEC exemption.
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The last 10-Q showed $245bb in equity investments. The most recent 13-F filing showed 228.9bb in equity portfolio and noted that they have a confidential position that hasn't been disclosed publicly yet.
Ideas on what this mystery 16.5bb investment could be (and I assume he was still adding this quarter)? Given the Apple stake, the relative size of the investment (which I assume wouldn't be more than 15-20% of the total CSO), and the more reasonable recent valuations, perhaps Facebook?
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I would have preferred a deeper dive into the DCF model, including the discount rate they are using.
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Thanks for the link.
Proxy Vote Against Ajit From Calpers
in Berkshire Hathaway
Posted
What absolute joke. Well deserved for both Ajit and Greg.