rosemontseneca
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Posts posted by rosemontseneca
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AHT common
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Time to load up?
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Check with your bank about an unsecured line also. I recently opened a 3-year unsecured revolving line with a regional bank at Prime + 25 bps. Was pleasantly surprised how easy the process was.
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What impact do we think inflation has on the group?
Struggling with this question. Assume it all gets passed through in the medium/long term, but how much turnkey risk do they have on longer-term fixed price work?
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16 hours ago, changegonnacome said:
Me too
Las Vegas is never shutting down again & NYC......well.......vaccination rates are high, it was epicentre of early COVID so lots of people with Mid-2020 naturally acquired antibodies.....combined NY metro is probably at ~75% of adults with COVID antibodies . Lockdowns wont be needed, health system wont be overwhelemed and NY'ers are done staying in their basements
MSG Arena will be full this fall/winter with sports and concerts
Rockettes will be jam packed as it has been for 84 years (excepting last year)
Tao Group restaurants are already full / booked out in NYC for weekend nights
Sports betting is coming to NY state - MSGN will have super engaged viewers for knicks/rangers games & desperate advertisers looking to pitch their gambling gaming app
Does anyone worry about the expiration of the MSG use permit in 2023? With Cuomo on the way out, I don't think MSG is as well protected politically as it was in 2013. Could MSG get shut down or get forced to build elsewhere without adequate compensation?
That said, the SOTP math still works even if you zero out the garden.
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Foreign holdcos (Exor, CK Hutchison, Jardine Matheson), foreign telecom (TIGO, TNET:BE, VIV), some energy (SU, CHK)
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Some of the new issues are really struggling. Presume they have to turn the tap off at some point?
Picked up AFAQU at 9.85 just now
A-rod spac (SLAMU) also now below 10
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Plenty of higher quality new issues at or below $10.00. I like FVIVU, FRWAU, KAHCU, LAACU and ROSSU as cash alternatives.
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Good find on APTS. Those Oct $15 calls look pretty good. If it compresses to a 5 cap, payoff is 30:1
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Same issue, but I got foreign ordinaries (JDSHF and JARLF), not ADRs. I think since they are dollar denominated fidelity shows them using the foreign ordinary ticker but you can trade them on Singapore exchange seamlessly using local J37/J36 tickers.
I called Fidelity on it when I first bought J37 and got JDSHF thinking it was some mistake, and they said they are the same security so it doesn't matter. Didn't realize that.
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FLMEU, AGACU, HERAU. All sub $10.
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There are a dozen or so recent SPAC IPOs trading at or below $10/unit right now. Seems like buying these and selling the warrants and shares separately when they detach in ~2 months is free money and beats holding cash in a savings account. What am I missing?
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Bought NEN with proceeds from EQR/CPT sales
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I got to a 7 cap by backing out 487mm for the development pipeline. That's what they use in their NAV buildup on page 35 of their latest investor deck, but I don't know if that reflects cost or some write-up to cost. If the latter, it's probably an aggressive assumption.
I also go back and forth on the overhead question, but for purposes of my math it's excluded.
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I have a small low conviction position in Befimmo, which is a Belgian office REIT. I show it trading at a ~7 cap rate, and the tenant base is 60% public sector. No catalyst other than hopefully re-rating post COVID.
Used to own British Land, but it sold it post vaccine bounce.
I tend to like the foreign property stocks because you don't have the same local tax/regulatory arbitrage that you have in the U.S. that is driving the "migration from the coasts" theme. Whereas everyone is ready to proclaim the death of NYC/SF/LA, London will always be the leading city in the UK, Paris for France, and so forth
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Bought FB and SRE today. SRE is a well managed utility that I have bought a few times over the year. It trades a t the lower end of its historical valuation range and should be a good low risk trade for 10-15% upside with little risk to principle or longer term hold depending on how things develop.
Always liked the idea of owning SRE given the TX utility and exposure to LNG / Mexico growth stories, but never did more than a superficial look due to the CA wildfire noise. Has that been addressed at this point in the wake of PG&E? How do you get comfortable?
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LMT, BAESY
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Jardine Strategic 9.3%
CK Hutchison 8.1%
Gold miners 7.4%
Tetragon Financial 5.6%
Berkshire B 5.0%
Graham Holdings 4.5%
Magellan Midstream 4.2%
Onex Corp 3.7%
Vornado 3.1%
Black Stone Minerals 2.5%
Dassault Aviation 2.1%
Lassonde Industries 2.0%
Fraser & Neave 2.0%
Telekom Austria 1.9%
Haw Par 1.9%
Befimmo 1.8%
Lukoil 1.7%
Telefonica Brazil 1.7%
Equity Residential 1.5%
Williams 1.4%
KT Corp 1.4%
Marathon Petroleum 1.3%
BAE Systems 1.2%
Photronics 1.2%
Cash 23.7%
Berkshire, office, tetragon, mineral royalties, asian conglomerates!
Great minds think alike! But seriously, big fan of your write-ups and the idea generation on this site more broadly. I source most of my PA ideas on here, VIC and fintwit. Look forward to contributing more.
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Jardine Strategic 9.3%
CK Hutchison 8.1%
Gold miners 7.4%
Tetragon Financial 5.6%
Berkshire B 5.0%
Graham Holdings 4.5%
Magellan Midstream 4.2%
Onex Corp 3.7%
Vornado 3.1%
Black Stone Minerals 2.5%
Dassault Aviation 2.1%
Lassonde Industries 2.0%
Fraser & Neave 2.0%
Telekom Austria 1.9%
Haw Par 1.9%
Befimmo 1.8%
Lukoil 1.7%
Telefonica Brazil 1.7%
Equity Residential 1.5%
Williams 1.4%
KT Corp 1.4%
Marathon Petroleum 1.3%
BAE Systems 1.2%
Photronics 1.2%
Cash 23.7%
What are you buying today?
in General Discussion
Posted
Basket of multifamily REITS - CPT, MAA, EQR, ESS, AVB