shru
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Posts posted by shru
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People and government talk about oil companies as they are "wartime profiteers". Overlooking their profit were in making due to their policies. I don't understand why politicians expect altruism from any business, specially from those businesses which has survived hostile policies towards them.
On the side note, during pandemic when big tech had printed so much cash and increase their valuation to trillions for just providing comfort, why they had not been asked to pay additional taxes?
Pandemic was a perfect opportunity for oil companies while current geo political crisis are perfect for oil companies.
Imposing profit taxes on oil companies does not sound fair to them.
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7 hours ago, Spekulatius said:
Intriguing:
Quite an interesting idea.
This sparks a new idea in my mind which is quite pacifist.
And that is to use drone to deliver messages of brotherhood and humanity to Russian army. As at the end, Ukrainian and Russian has a lot in common then not. When two people fight over differences, it is better to count their similarities in order to make their differences quite insignificant.
And current war is a Putin's war rather than it is of war between two different tribes people.
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On 6/30/2022 at 5:30 PM, Viking said:
Energy right now is looking like steel and lumber did a year ago. The energy companies are making obscene amounts of money. But unlike steel and lumber it looks to be like the profits for energy companies will likely remain higher for longer. If we get a further sell off of energy stocks (on recession fears) it might be time to increase exposure again. Energy has been my best ‘buy the dip’ trade the past 3 months (paid out every time)…My usual buy is Suncor. But i am starting to look at a few of the smaller producers. MEG is looking interesting but might not get much love until more debt is paid down. I like that they are unhedged.
What smaller energy producers are board members big on right now?
I like Parex Resources.
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Why oil stocks are crashing so fast despite oil price is still around $110?
oil stock party seems to be over.
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1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:
@shruI don’t think your hypothesis makes much sense.
1) a lockdown in China will hurt the Chinese economy much more so than it does collateral damage to western economies (probably need order of magnitude more).
2. china is not the cause of inflation in the west, the causes are lack of labor in western economies, and rising natural resource prices as well as shortages due to demand spiking.
3) China is in much more risk of having a bubble popping the west. China has a real estate bubble that far exceed what we have in the US or even Canada. Worse, since they have pegged the Yuan to the USD, their monetary policy is tied to US monetary policy, until they decide to get rid of the currently peg. It seems like markets already predicting that this may happen, because the Chinese Yuan is very weak agains the USD.
I think Chinese has to be much more concerned about their social fabric than the west at the moment. We can tell this from “common prosperity” agenda which whacks their stock market , but I guess they feel they have to do it nevertheless.
Thank you for response and food for more thoughts.
Value your response highly.
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Anyone thinks that China is intentionally keeping Covid zero policy to break western nations?? We all think that it is political and it has to do with Xi’s face saving and ineffectiveness of Sinovac.
but can it be there intentional move? Just like Russia know that europe depends on their oil and gas, China knows that world depends on their manufacturing.
currently,
Due to money printing, more money is chasing less goods. And goods are becoming less and less in the market by their Covid zero policy. So even if the rate rises, inflation will not go until China opens up its trade.
On the contrary, in western nations, rising rates has probability to burst its asset bubble which will alienate many investors, household and common individual. Job losses might be there due to lack on further investment in higher interest rate and inflationary environment. And that will amplify the impact on critical economic and day to day life. And western nations are not China that people here can be suppressed. Lot of will take upon street and show their dissatisfaction. Civil unrest may fall upon. Destabilize the governments. Destroy the fabric of western nations. And then China opens itself as more stronger nation than any other world nations.guys, I may sound like conspiracy theories but when I see this in its entirety, I see that as one of the multiple pictures painted in this forum.
I am up to know your thoughts. -
On 5/3/2022 at 7:01 AM, no_free_lunch said:
I don't think that is necessarily true that Russia improved over time. In WW1 they just kept feeding troops into the grinder. As I understand it was a major reason for the revolution. Afghanistan , maybe not a good comparison as it was guerilla warfare but that didn't end well either. In WW2 yes, they did improve significantly during the war but also took enormous losses.
I don't doubt it's going to get worse, from UA perspective. Russia is not winning and they will start to lose if they don't adapt. I don't see them getting efficient though, I think they may just raise troop levels but we will see. Also keep in mind UA is far from perfect and will continue to evolve as well.
Thank you for directing my perspectives.
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I think, things are just going to get rough. If one sees history then one shall see that Russia always starts the war at bad footing but gets efficient as war moves further.
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On 3/25/2022 at 6:50 AM, Spekulatius said:
The Russian production will not be lost but the Ukrainian will be partly (but not completely lost). So I don't think the food shortage will be as bad as it's made out.
I reckon - India has grain surplus and India will easily be able to supply and meet the deficit.
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Hello community members,
We all look for and read the investment letters from Buffet, Sleep, Seth K. and others.
Who are other investors whose investment letter you are looking forward to or put good weight on?
My vision with this thread is to aggregate the list of investors whose words should be valued.
Also, it will be great to read investor letters who has expertise in EM investments.
The holy quaternity of a 2024 value investor:
in General Discussion
Posted
Sorry for my lack of knowledge and, might be not so intelligent question:
Being bullish on 1 and 2 - is it the result of impending rate cuts? As once the interest rate will go down - investor will be looking at those organization which pays good dividend? (Given that Tobacco and oil companies provide decent dividends.)