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Every Banana Counts

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    What are you buying today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    16 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

    Interesting. I listen to this episode from Broken Silicon pod cast and that fellow with 40 years of experience expects that the semi shortage will become a glut, probably in 12 month or so.

    I believe Mr Market will smell the rat before the turn happens most likely. I think there is going to be a lot of money made with puts if you can time it well.

     

    Insert “First time?” GIF here.

    https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/broken-silicon/id1467317304?i=1000536154890

    I cannot imagine that the pendulum does not swing the other direction. I think that in the long term the swings will average out, and TSMC is in a very competitive position to do better than its competition in good and bad times. Their chips are going to be the best for a long time. I do wish the Company was headquartered in Arizona instead of right next to China… Thanks for sending the podcast link.

    What are you buying today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    JD and BABA over the last few weeks. Both felt uncomfortable to buy, as there is obviously a lot of fear and publicity surrounding China now. Setting aside massive regulatory risks this seems like a simple investment decision. Position size is the only way I know to manage the very complex regulatory risk. These are both great companies in a system I don’t understand and have a very hard time relating to. 

    AGM Updates

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    In a past annual meeting, I forgot which one, Warren said that he thought BRK would do very well in an economy with a much higher rate of inflation. It’ll be interesting to see what happens. In that same meeting I believe he said that greater regulation, and possibly even nationalization, of the insurance industry could be a risk to BRK in a hyper-inflationary environment. This seems unlikely to me, but if people can not afford the insurance the government requires something has to give. 

    What are you buying today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    MKL- I am surprised I did not hear more people talking about Markel right now. I am really excited Saurabh Madaan joined the team. He seems like an outstanding human, and I expect he does a great job. I also think MKL is selling at a good price assuming their future looks anything at all like their past (big assumption). 

    Munger DJM Quotes

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    Humility and Honesty. When Charlie said he was probably not the best person to give marital advice due to a past failed marriage I thought this spoke tremendously to his Humility. He also was not obligated to bring up his past failed marriage which I believe spoke to his high degree of honesty. I hope Charlie is able to give many more talks like this. It made my day.

    Berkshire 2030

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

     

    What do you guys think about the key man risk? Most conglomerates tend to sell below book value. So there is still something of a Buffett/Munger premium. If you think book value can compound at 7-10% a year but book value falls from 1.3x book value to 1x book value (or lower) the returns become a lot less attractive. Obviously buybacks will help to some extent and most conglomerates do not really bother with this as a way of eliminating any discounts.

    If Berkshire’s price to book hovered around one for an extended period of time (years), then I think the long-term shareholder would greatly benefit. I cannot imagine a tremendous amount of shares would not be re-purchased. If large amounts of shares are not re-purchased at that level, then they would likely be getting opportunities to make much higher returned elsewhere. This would also be a great scenario for Berkshire. It is a good point you make, but that is why it is important to entrust your money to great capital allocators.
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