Bryggen
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Posts posted by Bryggen
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Amazing guys! Thank you for your input in answering my question. Very knowledgeable people here!
Truly appreciated.
Bry
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...and my second question is directed at everyone here:
Is there any value in using the intrinsic value calculation used by Buffett\Graham in 2023?
Would valuing stock using multiples be easier and sufficiently accurate to make an investment decision?
It appears to me that predicting cash flows and determining an accurate or proper discount rate are possible issues in Buffett's valuation method.
Thoughts?
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On 4/27/2022 at 2:06 PM, Dave86ch said:
Hello investors,
I published the latest article on the Value Investing blog.
What are we going to learn?
- The logic behind the price
- The formula of intrinsic value
- The convergence between value and price
https://dscompounding.wordpress.com/2022/04/24/18-intrinsic-value-discounted-cash-flow/
I hope it could be useful for novice.
Suggestions from seasoned investors are welcome.
Dave86ch, great article,
As a newbie, can you explain something in relation to the discount rate, i.e. the use of the risk-free 10 years gov. bond?
Would the discount rate used represent the minimum return the stock would generate should we buy it at its intrinsic value (calculated with this same rate)?
I am just confused. If the risk-free (10 yrs gov. bond) is 4% and I use this rate to calculate the intrinsic value of a stock, then I buy the stock at that specific price, does it means that it will return me a minimum of 4%? I hear people suggesting using a higher rate, say 8%, for better returns. If I use 8% in my calculation, would the intrinsic value obtained mean that if I get the stock at the price, it will return me 8%?
I hope I am making sense here. Let me know!
Bry
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I've gone to them each year for the past decade, or so, and quite enjoyed them. They can vary a bit from year to year depending on the speakers.
There are videos of several of the past speakers online. For instance https://www.ivey.uwo.ca/bengrahaminvesting/resources/video-library/
The online format is new for them. So, it'll be interesting to see how they handle it. (The networking and side meetings were really good in the past but, alas, probably won't happen this year.)
If cost isn't an issue, I'd go for sure. But it's mostly an industry thing for those who can write off / expense the cost. It'd be a harder decision for retail investors of modest means. The later group might want to wait till next year for the full experience.
Thanks Norm! Valuable input and I will wait next year. in the meantime, I will watch some of the videos ;)
Bry
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Sorry Bryggen
i don't know much about these conferences.
otherwise i would have commented it.
Thanks for your reply. Appreciated. Looks like it was discussed here before (2016), but I assume no one has a recent experience. Have a good one!
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Figured I'd start a new topic on this one...
Has anyone ever attended the Ben Graham Centre for Value Investing conference usually taking place the week of the AGM? This year it is called the 2021 VIRTUAL VALUE INVESTING CONFERENCE.
Would you recommend it? Anything to actually learn or gain insight into? Anthing to gain as an individual investor?
Please share your thoughts as I am considering registering for the first time.
Thanks
Bry
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A quick google search would provide your answer.
Unrelated question: was FFH ever part of the TSX 60 and recently removed?
Thanks
...not if you don't have a Globe and Mail account! I cannot read the article.
So, the answer is no and never was on the TSX60?
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Unrelated question: was FFH ever part of the TSX 60 and recently removed?
Thanks
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Thoughts on the results?
Still new trying to figuring out their numbers and if this is good or bad. Looks decent at first glance given the context.
Bry
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Any thoughts on the upcoming call on Friday?
Expecting surprises or we pretty much know what will come out of this call?
Do you believe the January dividend could be threatened in the current context?
Just curious.
Thanks!
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Annual news. They must file one every year on the off-chance that they wish to repurchase shares. It's just a formality.
SJ
Thanks for cooling my excitement ;)
So, when and how would they report actual share repurchases?
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Question: roughly how cheap was FFH trading when Prem bought? price to tangible BV? price to normalized earnings?
It looks like he bought at an average cost of $308 USD roughly or about $420-425 CDN per share. It says he bought in the last few days before the press release...I would imagine it was around the 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th, where the stock was around $425 CDN or less and volumes rose. If he is buying there, then I would imagine he is expecting a return of better than 15% annualized or more over the next few years. Cheers!
The question then becomes is Prem expecting a 15% return a good predictor of future 15% returns.
...and one to ask: ''is 15% a realistic expectation?''.
I am approaching a decade of holding FFH and I am seriously wondering if this is a realistic target as recent shareholders (10 years or less) are yet to benefit from such appreciation. It sure attracts new ( and naive) investors. I am tired of hearing the 30 years track record and while I focus on the last 10 years, I can only come to the realization that shareholders fell short of expectations.
yeah , yeah ... I am still around and will for quite some time, but I needed to vent and share ;)
Even during the depths of the hedge fund crisis, when Fairfax stock fell to $53 USD, I don't remember Prem buying shares in such a significant amount. Frankly, I'm shocked that he put $150M of outside capital into Fairfax...that would be a decades worth of dividends for him. And if he didn't borrow the money, I would imagine that's probably half his net worth outside of what is held in Sixty-Two Corporation.
Then again, I've got half my net worth outside of Corner Market Capital in Fairfax and Atlas Corp right now, so maybe I shouldn't be surprised...and I'm very comfortable with both and think both have 50-100% upside over the next 2-3 years! Cheers!
Feeling better... thanks for your always valuable input. Patience and trust are key here.
Let wait and see...and look back at this thread in 2-3 years!
cheers
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Question: roughly how cheap was FFH trading when Prem bought? price to tangible BV? price to normalized earnings?
It looks like he bought at an average cost of $308 USD roughly or about $420-425 CDN per share. It says he bought in the last few days before the press release...I would imagine it was around the 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th, where the stock was around $425 CDN or less and volumes rose. If he is buying there, then I would imagine he is expecting a return of better than 15% annualized or more over the next few years. Cheers!
The question then becomes is Prem expecting a 15% return a good predictor of future 15% returns.
...and one to ask: ''is 15% a realistic expectation?''.
I am approaching a decade of holding FFH and I am seriously wondering if this is a realistic target as recent shareholders (10 years or less) are yet to benefit from such appreciation. It sure attracts new ( and naive) investors. I am tired of hearing the 30 years track record and while I focus on the last 10 years, I can only come to the realization that shareholders fell short of expectations.
yeah , yeah ... I am still around and will for quite some time, but I needed to vent and share ;)
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On top of the future conversion he could get at $6 a piece from the recent debt deal, Prem loaded up on BB on Sept. 1st to increase his stake:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prem-watsa-continues-bet-blackberry-165153198.html
It means something? .... I think BB's time is finally coming.
Thougts?
My view is that the linked article is written by a poorly programmed AI.
It randomly attached facts to make a business article.
The AI is a far cry from the Skynet that was suppose to take over the world by now.
The actual serious question is: did he buy more BB as stated in the article or not?
Anyone knows? Maybe we ask the AI ;)
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On top of the future conversion he could get at $6 a piece from the recent debt deal, Prem loaded up on BB on Sept. 1st to increase his stake:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prem-watsa-continues-bet-blackberry-165153198.html
It means something? .... I think BB's time is finally coming.
Thougts?
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I would say its a bit concerning that they managed to lose money (significantly) on both the long and short side. Realized plus unrealized losses of $821.9 MM for the long side, and $222.4 MM for the short side. Should be making money on one side of a long-short book...
That is for the first six months of the year, right?
Making money in 6 months during a pandemic? Really?
I am stealing Parsad's favourite: cheers!
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Now, as everyone talks about integrity and suspicious deals, what are your thoughts on that one with BB - just out today:
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To feed the discussion, an interesting read on integrity and good leadership as per Prem Watsa:
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And my question on that deal and issues raised is from a FFH shareholders' perspective, are we winning or losing?
Can someone explain.
FFH is a shareholder of Torstar and could have gotten more, but refused to allowing Rivett to succeed in his bid?
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Seriously, I have never seen anyone dodging the question as much as Acker on FFH. Ok, at the end he says that if it goes a lot cheaper he would consider buying, but other than that, I didn't learn anything from his intervention on BNN.
We don't have much to focus on these days, so here is the interview:
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/market-call/brian-acker-discusses-fairfax-financial~1993367
PS: I guess at around $400 CDN, we could get a better deal than Prem!
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Not sure how to interpret that. You rarely see CEO shares purchases announced by a press release. You usually see it through the regulator flings. While this is by any mean a positive event, I feel it is being emphasized to encourage the share price to appreciate. A move out of desperation at a time where share price took a beating the past month or so.
I would be curious to hear from our experienced members.
Maybe I am reading too much into it....
Maybe nothing more than an actual good news!
Are you kidding me?! The CEO of the company puts $150M of his outside money into Fairfax and you think it's an act of desperation. A bunch of us said that it was dirt cheap back around late March, early April, and we backed the truck up. Now the CEO is telling you the same thing and you still can't wrap your head around it. I would stop worrying about Fairfax's price and go back and read Securities Analysis by Ben Graham. This is a valuation and analytical issue, not a psychological one! Cheers!
Take it easy on me! ;) All I was trying to say is that I have never seen a PR issued to announced a CEO's purchases of the company's stock. This is rather an unusual event and I was questioning the purpose (if any) of doing it that way. I realized I may have used the wrong word (desperation). Thanks to Petec for pointing out the fact that the size of the purchase may be the reason it is announced through PR. That being said, that aside, it is great news for sure and we all (shareholders) benefit from that vote of confident Prem places in FFH as evidenced today with the nice pop in share price. Cheers!
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Not sure how to interpret that. You rarely see CEO shares purchases announced by a press release. You usually see it through the regulator flings. While this is by any mean a positive event, I feel it is being emphasized to encourage the share price to appreciate. A move out of desperation at a time where share price took a beating the past month or so.
I would be curious to hear from our experienced members.
Maybe I am reading too much into it....
Maybe nothing more than an actual good news!
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Not sure if I should laugh rather than being excited reading this ;)
Thought this news was now well in the past and the topic concluded.
Not sure about you, but it ain't going to happen, right?
https://ca.yahoo.com/finance/news/buy-alert-blackberry-tsx-bb-200059026.html
Fairfax 2024
in Fairfax Financial
Posted
So, do we know for sure the news is false? Can anyone confirm? I was surprised by it. Thanks! Bry