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lotsofguts

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Posts posted by lotsofguts

  1. I'm an angel investor and have owned pharmacies and medical centres but not in the US.

     

    There are many challenges to this business model. PopRx tried this model in Canada and eventually went bankrupt.

     

    A better business model would be for a company such as Teladoc or a clinic chain to build an online pharmacy because it's really the physician that owns the customer relationship.

     

     

  2. Might not be what you want to hear,

    but it might well save you a small fortune ....

     

    At 59, you're too old.

    It will take at least 3-5 years of intense reading, the cost of at least a university/college course or two, and tuition (losses while learning); you will be approaching 64 by the time you know anything. Assuming no major 'senior moments' until 75-80; there will be maybe 10-15 years of runway at best. Is picking stocks really what you want to be doing in retirement?

     

    Index funds, not individual stocks/bonds

    Tuition/learning time is a lot shorter, and your decisions are limited to just recognizing when to enter/exit specific sectors. As every boat rises/falls with the tide; all you need do is be able to recognize when the tide is going in/out, and know what a sturdy boat looks like.

     

    Look at starting/buying into a business, not investing.

    For most retirees the issue is what are going to do with your time. For business people it is often better to buy a minority stake in an existing business, and treat it as a 'working hobby'. Typical businesses are breweries, patisseries, inn keeping, etc.; the skill-sets, work load and financial risk is spread over multiple partners, and you're in the business primarily for 'fun' versus profit maximization. The long-term pay-off is increased longevity, better health, and better quality of life - by keeping both mind/body active.

     

    Good luck!

     

    SD

     

    I agree. It will take a lot of time to build knowledge and experience. Using 10,000 hrs as an example to become a "good" investor, it might take years. 

  3. I think this article might explain part of it.

     

     

    From: http://pembridgecap.com/?m=201706

     

    "The Best Idea Fund

     

    Charlie Munger coined a problem at his dinner party: Capital Group (large LA based fund manager) created The Best Ideas fund. This fund would collect one favorite stock per analyst in the fund. Munger mentioned that this fund underperformed the market significantly and asked guests as to why this might be.

     

    The answer was

     

    consistency bias: the idea that managers had spent the most research time on was typically their “best idea”. Human beings tend to selectively filter new information that confirms the first thing they belief to be true based on something they read or listened to.

     

    the specialist problem: specialist analysts get biased toward their sector benchmarks. They do not select the best stock, but the best stock in the sector.

    TC Comment: this compounds the insider view bias that Kahneman discovered. Man is naturally taking too much of an insider view already in general, and not enough benchmarking ideas to the outsider view, or base rates."

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