CGJB
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Posts posted by CGJB
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9 hours ago, james22 said:
15% MSTR
Mind sharing what your average cost is?
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29 minutes ago, Parsad said:
That's exactly why China would probably be more inclined to go after Taiwan, as they know that Trump would do nothing to protect Taiwan. Cheers!
It's not easy at all for China to go after Taiwan militarily. But Biden has been playing footsie with the third rail (Taiwan sovereignty), and that's a casus belli for China. Nothing else is. Keep the status quo in Taiwan, and China will take no risks. Taiwan is not defensible with America's current navy. We can't shoot down hypersonic missiles, for example.
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36 minutes ago, Castanza said:
My Sberbank investment in Russia is actually mostly impossible to access because of the US not Russia. My 5k investment that’s worth 45k is just stuck….in limbo until the US decides to allow ADRs again if ever.
I'm so glad to see you posted this. I have some Russian ADRs myself. The action the US took on this doesn't "stick it to Putin" or whatever, it just screws over American citizens. What a mess.
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20 hours ago, Parsad said:
War, U.S. issues, Taiwan invasion...these seem like remote problems...unless Trump wins.
Respectfully disagree that war with China would be more likely if Trump wins. Trump would be very aggressive toward China with things like trade restrictions and tariffs, but he has never shown any inclination to getting into a kinetic war with them.
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1 hour ago, Gregmal said:
Next thread, will the US meddle in Taiwan and provoke another war?
Spot on. I think this is the bigger threat and has been for the last couple of years.
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Happy New Year. Wishing everyone peace, prosperity and health in 2024 and beyond.
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That section about Munger from the Snowball is fantastic. Thanks for posting it.
For those who have access to Barron's, they have a wonderful article interviewing the lady who was Munger's personal assistant for the last 31 years of his life: https://www.barrons.com/articles/charlie-munger-close-up-warren-buffett-berkshire-bff539ca?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2 -
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to everyone!
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16 minutes ago, ValueArb said:
I doubt this narrative has much to do with reality.
Ha! We'll just have to agree to disagree. But I'd much, much rather be holding Putin's hand right now than Zelensky's. And I don't think that will change. Time will tell.
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22 hours ago, changegonnacome said:
The Ukrainians need to be sent weapons & money quickly for a final push to secure some incremental victories and get to the negotiating table.
I could be wrong, but I doubt the Russians would negotiate with Zelensky. They tried that in Istanbul last year and the talks were making great progress only to be scuttled by the US/UK. That telegraphed to the Russians that Ukraine is a puppet state. So they will likely only negotiate with the US (with maybe a sprinkling of some European countries at the table for decoration). But Biden would have to eat a lot of crow to reach any peace deal that could realistically be achieved.
Think about it. Biden went to Warsaw last year and gave an angry speech that he ended by invoking God and calling for regime change in Russia. He was going to do whatever it took to give Ukraine whatever it needed to drive the Russians out of the Donbas and out of Crimea. No way does he want to shake hands with the Russian leadership he wanted toppled, and acknowledge that Crimea and the Donbas are now part of Russia.
What does Biden want? Right now, he just wants to keep this thing going past the elections in November 2024. He doesn't care how many Ukrainians and Russians needlessly die in the meantime. -
Some people are around so long that, without realizing it, you think they're going to be around forever. And then the day comes when they're not. Rest in peace, Mr. Munger.
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Right, Schloss started his limited partnership in 1955. The book "Supermoney" came out in the early 1970s I think. I've always thought that Schloss probably just wanted a low profile for a long time, and after a while didn't mind doing interviews.
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I've heard that "Herbert" was Walter Schloss. Don't know if that's true or not.
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Cash/US Treasury Bills 42.0%
Gold Bullion 14.1%
-- iShares Gold Trust ETF (IAU)
Everything Else:
Hess Corp. (HES) 7.7%
Bayer ADRs (BAYRY) 5.2%
CNOOC Ltd. (883 HK) 4.6%
B.P. Marsh & Partners (BPM UK) 3.3%
Energy Resources of Australia (ERA AU) 2.9%
COSCO Shipping International (517 HK) 2.7%
IGB Bhd. (5606 MY) 2.4%
CK Hutchison ADRs (CKHUY) 2.3%
New Hope Corp. (NHC AU) 1.8%
Scorpio Tankers (STNG) 1.8%
Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU) 1.4%
Alina Holdings (ALNA UK) 1.4%
Swire Pacific Class B ADRs (SWRBY) 1.3%
Dolphin Capital Investors (DCI UK) 1.3%
Alibaba (9988 HK) 1.1%
Cenkos Securities (CNKS UK) 1.0%
Holdings Under 1% Each:
Anemoi International (AMOI UK)
Berkeley Energia (BKY AU)
Polymetal Interational ADRs (AUCOY)
Thalassa Holdings (THAL UK) -
On 3/9/2023 at 2:14 PM, no_free_lunch said:
Well you literally just said you hoped Russian stocks trade again. I mean that is part of free speech so I defend your right to say that. Just know that if you talk against Russia in Russia you are fucked. Probably literally.
Yes, I hope Russian stocks trade again. Just like I hope Russia is successful with its Special Military Operation.
Z
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3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:
I take the opposite side on this. I think it will take a long time until Russian stocks trade again in western markets.
I agree with you! I hope it's not the case, but my hopes and what I think will happen are two different things.
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12 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:
Soon Russian stocks will be traded again.
I hope you're right. And I hope that's true for the ADRs as well.
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For years the media reported on the Nazis in the Ukraine. Though they would like for everyone to forget that fact. See: https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/04/azovreplist.html
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German tanks supporting Nazis in the Ukraine. We've seen this before.
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22 hours ago, Gregmal said:
Yea this is a new media tactic Ive noticed over the past 3-5 years. Spreading the disinformation about the health of our "enemies"...Remember when North Korea was in the news? Every other week was a new "where's Kim Jong Un?" article or speculation about his health. They did it with Xi, and now with Putin. Lame and see through. Not really sure what the point is either.
Here's a link listing 50 headlines of media outlets pushing the idea of Putin being in poor health.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/07/50-sick-headlines-about-vladimir-putins-health.html#more -
23 hours ago, Dinar said:
You can simply flare gas, which is what Putin will do rather than shut down wells. I am 99.99% confident that Soros is aware of this, the fact that he omits this fact once again shows that he is, while a great investor, not a person to be trusted in my opinion.
I agree that Soros ranks as a great investor, one of the greatest of all time. But I don't think he is a force for good in the world. Putin, for whatever faults he may have, kicked Soros out of Russia some years ago. And for that he should be saluted and emulated by other world leaders, imho.
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On 7/7/2022 at 12:47 AM, changegonnacome said:
4.......nearly 5 months into this and the "peace deal" on the table in February.......is effectively the off ramp where this conflict ends up in the end.....I havent heard a credible alternative. This is:
(1) Ukrainian commitment to neutrality / No NATO membership
(2) Minsk-esque agreement for Eastern Ukraine/contested territories
Difference now however is that it's a proxy war between the US & Russia...with all those dynamics......and the US (aligned with the Ukrainian right, not Zelensky) will decide when & what the optics of victory for the US political players 'make sense'.......for an embattled UK Prime Minister Ukraine & Zelensky is a positive PR story he wheels out to try and save his administration, for the embattled US president its one place he can appear Presidential while domestically his presidency falls apart. In the process Ukraine gets increasingly destroyed such that whats left will be husk & millions globally are likely to go hungry due to grain shortages. Its time for a shitload of pragmatism in regards to this situation and a concerted effort at 'peace talks'. Suspect there is no interest in this now until after November.
I agree with this take. Well said.
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I'm no military strategist, but I always felt the end game in this would be the Donbas becoming independent, maybe joining Russia at some point, with Russia establishing a land bridge to Crimea. Now I suspect Russia will eventually take Odessa.
In the end, what's left of Ukraine will be a landlocked country. Every bit as corrupt as it has been, but much poorer as well.
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End game?
At a minimum, the two breakaway Donbass Republics will provide Russia with a land bridge to Crimea. They may even become part of Russia at some point. No way is Ukraine ever getting them or Crimea back.
Portfolio for my 92 year old grandma
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