Ahab
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Posts posted by Ahab
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Ideally we get 100% of par plus some sort of sweetener for converting to common. I would be ecstatic if we netted 125% through such a process.
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I think we gap up considerably this coming week. That being said, I agree that what happens in the comings months/year is of great importance to the success of reform efforts.
I perceive the En Banc decision to be providing the admin more political/legal cover to pursue the reform solution that they already wanted to enact. On Thursday, we heard the pushback from the usual suspects (I'm talking about you Bloomberg, you sorry excuse for a news organization) about "hedge-fund windfalls" and "reform taking years." I perceive this ruling to be accelerating the timeline and helping neutralize pushback.
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Any guesses for what the stock does on Monday? 8)
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I won't believe today is the today until I see the headline. Good luck folks 8)
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Well said. I think a cardinal myopia of institutional investors is thinking that their intelligence translates to success in predicting the behavior of complex systems.
Predicting the fate of individual companies is hard, but at least you can handicap the "pitch". Predicting the future of the global economy and correctly analyzing the resulting impact on securities prices requires you to be an utter savant with a Midas touch. Even Keynes was a bad macro investor.
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Well said Gregmal. You can get large cap US banks at a sub-10 PE with 15% projected returns of capital over the next year. You can get automakers such as General Motors and Fiat-Chrysler at sub 6 PE's. The former has a world class autonomous driving unit. The latter is quietly pursing merger opportunities. Sure the aforementioned stocks could go down much further in a recession. However, if investors are spooking themselves right now, valuations are cheap in many of these out of favor sectors. The contrarian in me says we don't have a recession with everyone screaming about a recession and pretending like they understand the yield curve..
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I think the new few weeks are the real deal and the market isn't reacting to it because "once bitten, twice shy."
This board is skeptical. GSE Twitter is skeptical. Unless you have material, non-public information, you should be skeptical right now. Even if you do, you probably should still be skeptical, because this is the Trump administration after all.
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I think the stock isn't responding more to the upcoming release of the plan because no one truly believes the plan is coming out. They hope the plan is coming out! It's been delay, delay, delay for months/years...
Another thought I have is that perhaps everybody who wants in is already in and has been for years. The plan being released would be a catalyst for large upward price movement, but also the entrance of a new sort of shareholder that craves a greater degree of certainty in their investments.
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Though shalt not YOLO OTC Securities
Though shalt not depend on the courts to protect property rights...
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PM & MO. I think investors are wildly pessimistic about the future of tobacco. I'm a Gen Z and people still smoke aplenty.
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Please God, let the IPO succeed so I may short it.
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PCG puts, wish me luck.
Bravo
Thanks 8)
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I think the market is being far too optimistic about the equity value that remains for current shareholders. PG&E needs a lot of capital both to invest in the business and resolve legal liabilities. Moreover, the market may be underestimating the amount of money that needs to go to fire victims (i.e the ongoing dispute over the cause of the Tubbs fire). Ultimately, my base case is that a creditor plan wins out and they extract a large share of the equity.
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PCG puts, wish me luck.
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Maybe people are front-running an adverse outcome for the common? Preferreds don't seem to be taking a similar dive.
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Ditto, you have a different approach then most of us MM, but it adds to viewpoint diversity.
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WFC, Tesla puts and calls (earnings)
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Bought some FNMAT, shorted some Pacific Gas & Electric.
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I don't understand the point of the trade, if I'm going to freak out and sell every time we have a correction. I am shifting my allocations a bit towards higher yielding preferreds, just in case dividends get turned back on and the capital build takes longer than most expect.
Not sure today's move is a response to new information. It could be market participants reflexively freaking out to downward price moves and taking profits ("someone must know something" kind of thinking).
The reporting has been utterly conflicting over the last few days. I don't know what to think. If there wasn't uncertainty about the path ahead, the preferreds would be trading at double the current price. You pays yer money, you takes yer chances..
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Upped my GOOG position by 50%.
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I think we will see a divergence among FAANG names during the 2020's.
I think Google and Amazon will have the best performance.
I think Apple and Netflix will do ok.
I think Facebook will decline throughout the 2020's. I think privacy concerns and their business not appealing to young people anymore may be catalysts for a large rerate of the stock.
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SHDL beat me to it. I bought some warrants of IPOA today. Mostly, because I see this as a very successful IPO due to the public's excitement about space travel/exploration.
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I heard something about Lamberth ordering a jury trial floating around on Twitter this week, but wasn't able to verify it elsewhere...
FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
in General Discussion
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I'd buy more but I'm already maxed. I suspect that's a similar situation for many commenters here.