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Cevian

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Posts posted by Cevian

    China

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    9 hours ago, Castanza said:


    Although I agree that Capitalism is the way I think you’re a bit short sighted to think China is just going to disappear. China has been around for 3500+ years. The US and other capitalist nations have barely been around for 200 years. The jury is out on how this goes long term for capitalism. I’m seeing a few cracks in the US and to me they seem to be a result of capitalism and growth/success culture at all costs. Short term, so far it does wonders. But if survivability and endurance is your game, there are other models out there that have clearly worked for a long time. I think over the next 100-200 years it will become apparent whether unfettered individual growth/success is a recipe for the long term survival l of a nation. 

     

    +1 Agree

     

    Also, I always find it interesting how "capitalists" mention "stimulus" in the same breath

     

    Screenshot 2024-01-23 at 5.40.45 AM.png

    Elon needs more Tesla stock to motivate him

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    This sets such a bad precedent for all companies whose founders believe they are integral to the company they founded, especially when, as is usually the case, a company needs to pivot into new areas which are very different from the original idea. There is already a huge agency problem within corporations and now, once precedent is established, I can foresee all these CEOs blackmailing their boards in good conscience.

    POLL - Likelihood of Taiwan Invasion by China before 2030

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Related to the discussion on BABA/TCEHY, and Chinese stocks in general, no matter how much fundamental analysis one does, the Taiwan question is the only one that matters.

     

    I write as someone who is looking at his Russian sanctioned shares (Lukoil, Gazprom, Sberbank, etc.), purchased at incredible valuations but now sitting in frozen accounts with regular emails from brokers asking me to move the positions which no one wants to custody. The interesting part is that all of these positions have large unrealised gains when looking at Moscow exchange prices.

     

    BTW, I'm a sucker for deals so I'm long BABA/TCEHY and they are a large part of the portfolio. I never learn I guess.

    • Haha 1

    Fairfax 2022

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    I'm a long time Fairfax shareholder and I have to say it has always been one of the most frustrating positions. Always unloved, perennially undervalued, down when the market is down, down when the market is up. This week is no different.

    Auction Buyback Announced

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    1 hour ago, MMM20 said:


    Are you seeing a 2021 realized capital loss generated by the first part of the transaction?

     

    My point is that, rough math, the big capital losses generated by the first part of the deal seem to roughly offset the dividend withholding tax paid… in my case at least.


    Looks like Canadian Tax Form NR7 is the one to apply for a refund on the withholding tax if you should’ve been exempt.

     

    I am not a tax guy though. agreed it’s a headache. Ive already spent too much life energy reading the docs and worrying about Canadian tax!

     

     

    I like your logic on the 1) tax loss in 2021, 2) subsequent dividend in 2022. I'll bring this up with the tax guys but I would expect Canadian tax to have rules such as "part of the same transaction or event" so as to somehow be considered together.

    Auction Buyback Announced

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    I've reached out to Canadian tax accountants to see if there is something that can be done to reclaim some of the withholding back.

     

    Never did I expect that a dividend can be paid to some and not all shareholders. From my perspective a transaction took place where I gave them something I owned and expected cash/value of $500 in return. Why would I as a shareholder received a "dividend" because I tendered my shares while my brother not received a "dividend" because he didn't tender his shares? Mental note never to do anything like this again. If it takes 66 pages to describe a transaction, maybe I should stay away. I could have just sold now at the pop.

    Auction Buyback Announced

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    I'm really upset about this. I got charged a huge 25% withholding tax as I'm a foreign investor. I really wasn't expecting a dutch auction to result in a portion of the proceed to be deemed a dividend. Very disappointing. Let me know if anyone has found a way around this.

    Fairfax 2020

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    I think this press release is important since they need to be seen to be giving the public enough notice and enough time between when Fairfax makes purchases of its own shares versus the timing of Prem's $150mil. large purchase of shares for his own account. The market has had plenty of time to digest the news and shares are lower now than when Prem purchased so I don't believe there is a conflict or timing issue of Fairfax now purchasing shares directly in the public markets.

    Insurance Hard Market

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I just received renewal rates for various insurance coverages out of Lloyds.

     

    For 2020-21 period, D&O Insurance Premium up 300%, Commercial Property & Liability Insurance up 50%. No claims history on either. Our brokers told me it's industry wide and no risk appetite at the moment.

     

    Anyone else seeing increases?

    Best Fund Managers

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Depends what life stage you're in, for me it's all about preservation of capital at this stage so:

     

    1. Job Curtis

    2. Anthony Deden

    3. Seth Klarman (I'm glad I have an initial investment with him already but now closed to new investors)

     

    The two top guys you've probably never heard of, for a reason. I avoid managers who are constantly on display. I have found to be a negative correlation between tv/video/interview exposure and performance.

    Fairfax 2020

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    https://www.torstar.com/images/Torstar_press_release_-_May_26_2020.pdf

     

    Paul Rivett comes out of “retirement”!

     

    Paul Rivett joins Jordan Bitove in taking Torstar private at $0.63 per share or approx $52 million in total.

     

    Fairfax Financial fully supports the take private transaction and will vote its 28.9 million class B Torstar shares in favour of the transaction. Fairfax will realize proceeds of $18.2 million on the sale of its shares.

     

    So let me get this straight....Rivett retires from Fairfax 3 months ago in order to spend time with his family and now comes out of retirement 3 months later in order to take Torstar private which results in a massive realized loss for Fairfax on its Torstar investment?

     

    How massive a loss? Well Fairfax acquired its 28.9 million Torstar Class B shares over several years including in the following transactions:

     

    - Nov 6/17 ---- 9.4 million shares @ $1.25 per share

    - Aug 25/16 --- 2.6 million shares @ $1.40 per share

    - June 3/16 --- 939,400 shares @ $1.77 per share

    - Mar 14/14 --- 2.4 million shares @ $5.35 per share

    -      Earlier purchases were done at much higher per share values

     

    BTW at March 31, 2020 Torstar had more than $78 million in cash on its books and no debt!

     

    Thoughts or comments?

     

    Optics is not good on this one. I don't like it. In Feb 2020 Prem commented, “Paul told me recently that for family reasons, he wanted to retire as President of Fairfax. It was with great sadness that I accepted his decision".

     

    I've been a big proponent of Prem and hold a lot of shares. Going forward, I'll have to approach any such comments with greater skepticism.

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