Pondside47
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Posts posted by Pondside47
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Is it just on the phone? Are your market subscriptions in order?
Yes just on the phone it seems. I don't really have a paid market subscription with IB. Is that the issue? I think I will call them since I'm the only one having trouble on this forum.
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Any of you been experiencing freeze up when you login the IB app on cellphone? I've been getting freeze up when the market is not open. It's been very frustrating.
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Many of us believe Coronavirus will be with us for a time in the US. There have been great actions taken in the last few days at the state and federal level but eventually people will start going back to work and I thought we could learn a few tips from my friends and family in China so we can stay safer in the next one or two years.
China has recently relaxed their social distancing and people are gradually going back to work and school. However, as I walk around Boston, I realize people in China even today are more vigilant against the threat of the virus than Americans going into the crisis. I am no scientist but here are a few things that Chinese are doing today that I hope more of my American friends could start doing to stay and feel safer in the next few months or years...
1) Wear latex or some sort of gloves when you go outside. Not only will you be less likely to scratch your face with rubber gloves on, you will be much less likely to catch virus from shopping cart handles, door knobs, even vegetables that other people might have sneezed upon earlier... You should throw the gloves away as often as possible.
If you hate gloves, carry a handkerchief or a box of facial tissue with you to open doors. Doors in the US are super heavy, and you are probably likely to catch virus from the door knobs. People in my companies are disinfecting the virus every 2 hours, but I don't believe that's enough. Most companies in China has a box of paper tower attached to the wall next to the door knobx and elevator buttons. People use a paper tower to push the elevator button and throw the paper away right there into a basket.
2) If you are daring enough, wear some sort of lab safety goggles when you go to areas with people around. You will have to go shop at some point. You won't touch your eyes with the goggles on either. You should clean your goggles when you come home with lysol wipes.
3) At some point the restrictions will be relaxed and you will start going to restaurants. In China today, the general practice is only one person can sit at a table. Make sure there is no strangers within 3 meters of you when you eat and try to sit outside where ventilation is plenty.
4) When people wait in line today in China, they stay at least 1 meter to 3 meters away from each other. If you can't do that in the US, consider move outside the line by a few steps so that you are not directly in front of someone who could be coughing to you.
5) Buy grocery for your parents and deliver them to their door but not go in every time even if they are not in a senior center. Family cluster events were a big issue in Wuhan. To keep your parents safe, stay away from them as much as possible.
6) When you talk to people on the street, stay 2-3 meters away from them.
These are what I can think of at this point. I hope others can add their own tips and people can choose whatever they feel comfortable doing. Stay safe.
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A conversation facilitated by Li Lu.
One model predicted Shanghai would see 800,000 cases, but through their extraordinary early efforts to limit travel, end larger gatherings, and immediately implement social distancing and testing, they limited cases to just 300 .And Dr. Zhang and his team have cured 95% of their COVID-19 patients in his hospital.
I couldn't help but notice how this doctor is not laying it on thick on Xi as some of the US officials are doing to Trump.
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Since we have some Chinese on this forum, if you want to donate to the efforts and couldn't find way that seem reliable, Li Lu is organizing a donation effort to support cities around Wuhan that need medical equipments.
http://www.himalayacapital.com/chinese/20200130NewRelease.htm
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https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191?query=featured_home
The first reported case in the US seems to be gotten better. Either the virus will make a comeback or he may get discharged soon.
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BTW, the Chinese government forbids discussion of Corona Virus on WeChat. I have noticed a lot of information flow has died down.
I don't think the government forbids discussion since I'm still discussing it with my relatives in Wuhan. But I understand a lot of the chat groups throwing rumors around have been banned temporarily. How is that different than some of the comments that have been blocked by Boston Globe? It makes me really want to see those comments!
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They decided to put the fatality rate on a log scale... this looks like it's half as fatal as Ebola... journalists are in the same league as investment bankers now
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there are at least 100k infections in my hometown Wuhan alone. The government doesn’t want to admit it because it promised to treat all infected patients for free. (No different from Bernie Sanders free shit)
If what you said is true, that makes this virus far less deadly than we think today?
On the investment side, these type of event usually marks the end of a long bear market. Just think about how the end of SARS marked the end of a long bear market in Asia.
Is it possible they're hiding deaths as well as infections?
If you look at numbers out of Wuhan and abroad, the death rate is indeed not that high. Similar to normal flu.
You also have to consider Wuhan is one of the least developed major city in China. The medical response in cities like Shenzhen will be much better. Shenzhen allegedly had 0 death during SARS and it’s located in the middle of guangdong which was one of the most affected provinces
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there are at least 100k infections in my hometown Wuhan alone. The government doesn’t want to admit it because it promised to treat all infected patients for free. (No different from Bernie Sanders free shit)
If what you said is true, that makes this virus far less deadly than we think today?
On the investment side, these type of event usually marks the end of a long bear market. Just think about how the end of SARS marked the end of a long bear market in Asia.
Is it possible they're hiding deaths as well as infections?
Absolutely, but the death number would have to be 10x higher for the virus to be more deadly than what the official numbers tell us today, if the 100k infection number is correct as of today.
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there are at least 100k infections in my hometown Wuhan alone. The government doesn’t want to admit it because it promised to treat all infected patients for free. (No different from Bernie Sanders free shit)
If what you said is true, that makes this virus far less deadly than we think today?
On the investment side, these type of event usually marks the end of a long bear market. Just think about how the end of SARS marked the end of a long bear market in Asia.
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I don’t understand why people waste time reading things that are neither peer nor editorially reviewed medical papers...
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I am from Wuhan and I have lots of friends and relatives there. I could tell you this: If you trust the government's stats of 500 infections and 17 deaths, it is no different from buying Chinese stocks merely based on their financial reports. All fake numbers.
The actual number is likely in the 100k range.
Right now even the doctors ran out of masks and gloves and are working unprotected. I don't know how much longer they can last before they are down.
I have 3 relatives infected. One staying at home, and two who spent 6 days going to each hospital to try to get hospitalized. They were all told one thing: We don't have resources for you. Go home. They finally got hospitalized yesterday. Think about it. That's after they are diagnosed positive. They are walking on the streets for 6 days while spreading the virus everywhere, with no hospital taking them in.
There are thousands and thousands of such patients.
There are also dead bodies everywhere in all hospitals. They are dead on the floor and for hours, no one comes to pick the bodies up. When they do get picked up, they are immediately sent to the funeral to be burned, without any diagnose of whether they got infected by this virus or else. Therefore the 17 death is just a joke.
Thanks for sharing that firsthand information. I hope everyone in your family ends up alright. What makes you think that’s the number has already hit 100k?
How wish his family member recover fully from the infection, but technically a lot of what muscleman said is hearsay not firsthand experience. My father's side family is from Wuhan as well and I hear from them quite the opposite. Yes some people are dying and yes we are short on medical supply due to the holidays. But things are getting better since the first month was virus attacking human unnoticed and now it's got the attention of us. Even if you multiply the official number by 10x and put it in the context of the size of population, it feels more hysteria than real catastrophe to me. How many people have died from the flu this season in the US?
None of my relatives have been infected and according to them the hysteria going around is mostly due to people panicking to rumors on social media. To you guys, what I just said goes into the hearsay category as well, other than the fact that none of my family has been infected. This whole situation is quite a hotbed for conspiracies.
Could the Wuhan government have responded better to this situation? The answer is absolutely yes, but the same answer goes for every crisis in every country. There is an article on WSJ yesterday about how 40 people died in Toronto during SARS while 0-1 died in Vancouver, and explained the difference in how hospital handled the infected patient in ER contributed the difference in the same country. Quite an interesting read.
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All the Sergio Marchionne calls were fantastic. Too bad his successors have lobster personality, at least when they are on conference call.
Mark Papa’s calls are great.
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I'm thinking about upgrading from Air 2 to the new iPad Pro 12.9. I'm more willing to read a 10-K for fun when I don't have to wait 5 minutes to print it. I've gone through more than 10 boxes of papers in the last two years. I feel like it's a huge waste. Could anyone using the 12.9 iPad comment on whether it's easy to read 10-k on it and to make annotations on the PDF itself?
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I'm surprised to see only one person mention autonomous in this thread. If autonomous driving comes to fruition, I suspect most auto manufacturers will look like Blackberry and Palm Pilot twenty years from now. GM is taking it seriously and Fiat Chrysler / Jaguar were smart to lock up partnerships with Waymo, but autonomy will benefit from network effects. And network effects means only a few winners, and only a few winners means a lot of bankruptcy / consolidation among the auto makers. None of the traditional auto makers are tech companies - it's not in their DNA. A few may be able to make the transition, but if autonomous driving is possible then this industry is on the verge of getting massively disrupted. And if so, a lot of these auto makers will be classic value traps even at these levels because their terminal value in 10-15 years is zero.
I haven't mentioned autonomous driving in this thread because I don't think I can add any value other than what's being said in the media. What's the chance of full autonomous in 10 years? And what are the chance terminal value really be zero? At what rate of decline in earning will make auto makers trading a 6x FCF a value trap? If you do the calculation, the idea that auto makers are untouchable based on autonomous driving threat is crazy... of course you need someone who cares about shareholder value to control the company so we don't spend huge amount of money chasing something that may not be a 100% winner take all business model. I think FCA is one of those companies.
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It's cheap because it's a cyclical sector that's capital intensive, high in fixed costs, super competitive, has a history of terrible capital allocation and a history of not earning their cost of capital over an economic cycle. They are not in control of the distribution of their own product and basically can't do anything to change that. They have mission critical suppliers that sometimes have pricing power over them. They have a partly unionized labor force and employees that get pissed off if they don't get large pension payments or if the largest owner also owns a football team that spends money to acquire a world star.
The most profitable market has been at around what is supposed to be the limit for what is sustainable in terms of volume, for a few years now. The largest growth market is a country with a history of not always respecting the tenents of capitalism. Being global enterprises with production and sales all over the world, they are also sensitive to political action, which most of time is aimed creating a local advantage for the nations incumbents, but in the end might make everyone in the ecosystem worse off.
Oh, and it's about to get disrupted by flying electric robotaxis.
PS. The tone is a bit satirical but the points are mostly true
PPS. I still like some of them as investments
Paying 100 million for Ronaldo might seem a bit too much but I was watching a Juventus documentary on Netflix the other day, and they pay 40 million for a 20 year old... so Ronaldo might not be that expensive in that context. Also almost everyone on the team drives a Jeep. Ronaldo is like God in China, which they are trying to crack. FCA may be having trouble selling Compass, I see a lot of imported Wranglers on the street of Beijing driven by young rich kids who want to stand out. For people who have a problem with owning Juventus as part of Exor, check out Juventus stock performance in the last 4 years.
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Highly recommended. I started reading it yesterday and am already half way through. The amount of hubris is mindblowing, they were thinking they could circumvent the FDA. I mean it‘s a blood testing device, of course the FDA has to approve it. A criminal gang of sociopaths who sold the dream of the next unicorn to investors who did know nothing about biotech.
What worries me is that John Elkann (Exor / Fiat Chrysler) apparently also invested. Makes me wonder if he will really outperform the market long term or if he is just good at painting a nice halo effect by copying some Berkshire phrases into his annual reports.
www.wsj.com/amp/articles/theranos-saw-huge-growth-in-revenue-and-profits-1480981872
Does the book have any detailed paragraph about John Elkan/Exor's involvement with Therano? Given the size of the investment and the hard to understand dynamic within a super wealthy family, I'm not 100% sure if it's even John's decision to invest. I'm buying the book though. Thanks for pointing out something negative about Exor. The Sergio crowd is turning into a cult. It's good to have potentially bad information to balance.
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Do you know what specific factors could potentially cause the return erosion when investing in CAT bonds? I'm in the P/C industry and I'm drawing a blank so far. My understanding is you could lose your entire investments in either quota share notes or CAT bonds. Quota share is less transparent than event linked CAT bond, so you rely more on the person bringing you the opportunity (the sponsor I guess). I'm not a reinsurance specialist but I can certainly ask around for you with more context.
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I was reading Dane Capital's 2018 Q1 letter last night and it talked about the botched follow-on offering at Daseke. I have a position in RIB software, which I believe recently went through a similar experience. Could someone explain to me, or point me to some reading material, the mechanism of how this works? What situation would result in a botched follow-on offering, and what can a company do to prevent it from happening? What are the mechanisms that drive the share price dive after such an offering?
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check out BOOM in HK. You can buy the preferred via them
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It seems the videos have disappeared. Any idea where else to find them? Thank you.
Cryptocurrencies
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None of the fund flow charts shows RMB inflow. It's hard to imagine Chinese sitting out on this casino.