DooDiligence

"Let there be light" Did a God do that? No; Thomas Edison did that...

Both have very large short % & ratio (anyone know what institutions?) Why do you guys prefer AOBC? I'm attracted to the clean sheet of RGR & I like the fact that management has clearly stated they don't do guidance or individual owner meetings. (They seem well managed...) I agree as to dubious moats...

See the following if you'd like to read what members of this board have already discussed regarding this HBO documentary... http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/berkshire-hathaway/becoming-warren-buffett-hbo-documentary-1302017/

Yeah; me neither (just thought the race to the bottom was interesting...)

Sorry guys; I just read the Interactive Brokers thread & saw that this was already mentioned...

Feeling Spammy this morning...

Oh, I know this one! It was the founding fathers. Funny how people of the right are so jacked about the 2nd amendment but so easily forget about the 1st. Oh and there's not stuff about being "well regulated" either. Regarding checks and balances in the US. That sounds good in principle maybe it even works if powers are split between parties. But now you have a republican senator declaring that it makes no sense to have republicans investigating republicans. The chairman of the Congress Intelligence Committee doesn't seem too concerned about Russian connections and involvement in the election. In the past this would have been equivalent to a declaration of war. But I guess winning changes things - now you have people waving Russian flags at CPAC. Oh and the House Oversight Committee for the past 8 years investigated everything down to what kind of underwear Obama was wearing but now suddenly everything is squeaky clean with Trump administration and the top item to investigate is a national park's tweets. Checks and balances indeed. ++

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Gun+sales+by+caliber Revolvers will be more reliable & easier to maintain when the Zombie apocalypse comes...

Ruger doesn't break out goverment or law enforcement sales in the K's & Q's but the following link has an interesting discussion on the subject (it's from 2013 & I believe the ideas are as enduring as guns are in American society.) http://rugerforum.net/ruger-pistols/93444-ruger-sr-law-enforcement.html#/topics/93444?page=1&_k=mttjha Fact is; Ruger makes high quality firearms (in store comparisons of workmanship, feel, action & safety features) & they seem to sell quite a few of them. I'm willing to bet that there's a fair bit of gun snobbery among "collectors" & other non-professional enthusiasts. I have owned guns (decades ago) but haven't owned or fired one in forever (seems like a waste of time.) Ruger reports 2016 full year tomorrow & I'd like to buy more (cheaper...)

Sayeth the "in your face" Buddha (truth is elusive...)

https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Returns-Investing-Through-Managers-ebook/dp/B01FYBLG9I/ref=sr_1_1?s=digital-text&ie=UTF8&qid=1487635394&sr=1-1&keywords=capital+returns

Drat - my feeble attempt elicited nothing...

Resident troll comments on DRM & its role in fake news (take it away Scotty..!)

Said the spider to the fly...

Nice link - thanks! Looks like checks have steadily marched upwards on a yearly basis. Not sure how I feel about that other than (optimistic about gun sales & increased gun violence...) State interventions should ratchet up the fear factor for increased sales. I'm gonna stick with my sword, pike & bow armory & will participate in firearms ownership through an equity stake in RGR...

Also would gang banger still apply (maybe gang poofter...)

That gives a value under $20 & if that happened, I'd load up. That said; if it drops to the low to mid $40's I'll add more (I'm also shopping for a sword, pike & bow right now as the Zombie apocalypse seems imminent...) Somewhere between $20 to $40 I'd be loading up as well. I know you like to fight up close and personal and have your heart set on a sword, pike & bow, but you should really consider this loaded with zombie rounds. Everyone knows that Zombies are attracted to loud noises. Guns would be needed for protection against live humans. I think that forming 2 squads with one aimed at Zombies (and hunting for food) & one for protection against hostile humans would be the way to go (I'd keep a sidearm as a backup; probably a totally reliable Blackhawk...) 🗡 The loud noise problem is real and one that the Republicans in congress are trying to solve. http://lawofficer.com/tactics-weapons/handguns/bill-to-legalize-silencers-introduced-in-congress/ Hopefully this will pass and Trump will sign it. Might make it easier for people to sleep in Chicago without all that noise...

That gives a value under $20 & if that happened, I'd load up. That said; if it drops to the low to mid $40's I'll add more (I'm also shopping for a sword, pike & bow right now as the Zombie apocalypse seems imminent...) Somewhere between $20 to $40 I'd be loading up as well. I know you like to fight up close and personal and have your heart set on a sword, pike & bow, but you should really consider this loaded with zombie rounds. Everyone knows that Zombies are attracted to loud noises. Guns would be needed for protection against live humans. I think that forming 2 squads with one aimed at Zombies (and hunting for food) & one for protection against hostile humans would be the way to go (I'd keep a sidearm as a backup; probably a totally reliable Blackhawk...) 🗡

That gives a value under $20 & if that happened, I'd load up. That said; if it drops to the low to mid $40's I'll add more (I'm also shopping for a sword, pike & bow right now as the Zombie apocalypse seems imminent...)

All statements & figures (rounded) are from the RGR 2015 10K unless otherwise stated. Actual firearms are their primary product with over 90% of manufacturing being done in the USA as well as 95% of revenues. Uses investment casting & metal injection molding (MIM) & could improve margins & response times with the introduction of CAD & CNC. No union employees & performance based compensation accounts for at least 15% of wages which allows for quick adjustments in payroll in the event of slow downs (10% of labor is temp.) Transferred defined benefit pension to 401K in 2014 with a $40.9m income charge & $7.5m cash outlay to fully fund the new program with no future obligation other than discretionary matching which they've been consistently doing at around $4m to $5m per year since 2014. Sales are through distributors with 4 accounting for the majority of sales (Davidson's 18%, Lipsey's, 17%, Sports South 13% & Jerry's/Ellett Bros 12%) & management believes that the loss of any distributor would not affect long term sales (maybe a slight short term decrease as a new distributor picks up the business.) Bad receivables & advertising expenses are minimal. R & D has been less than 1% of revenues for quite some time (they expense instead of capitalizing.) Properties include a total of 915,000 sq ft (most of which is manufacturing & warehousing) with 275,000 leased & the rest owned (no major lease obligations or purchase agreements.) They use LIFO with around a $43.5m reserve (Q3 2016 10Q) & I admit to not fully understanding the implications of LIFO over FIFO (other than it seems like it could be used to game EPS.) Is LIFO just a numbers game or do they actually have $43.5m worth of old guns laying around in cosmoline? The company is very agile with CAPEX as the business environment changes. They accelerated depreciation slightly in 2013 by changing the useful life of machinery & equipment from 10 years to 7. The company uses sell through estimates & inventory levels from distributors to plan production levels & has no access to retailer figures. They also monitor units sold to distributors vs NICS background checks (adjusted for renewals) to anticipate production needs (I find the corrolaries a bit lumpy & would appreciate if anyone would look at this & make better sense of it than I can.) They appear to be very disciplined with buybacks & the dividend varies as a % of earnings from 20% to 60% with an average 49% payout. Risks are obvious & include potential changes to the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act, which management has stated could have material effects on the companies ability to operate. Product liability has been minimal & contingent liabilities are recorded & charged to COGS as incurred/anticipated. The "Investment Community Communications Policy" states that they won't meet individually with investors or analysts & won't issue guidance (I kind of like this...) I don't own a gun & have no desire to either but I'm not going to steer away from what I believe to be a fact (guns are not going away in America.) (I am however, contemplating the purchase of a samuri sword, pike & compound bow to deal with the potential of a Zombie apocalypse ) We've had an assasination attempt on a Republican president with major injuries & deaths; horrendous shootings at our nations schools, theatre's, etc. & still, politicians & the public continue to leave gun ownership largely untouched (Waco? hello...) Alcohol, tobacco & firearms (and Rick's) are here to stay albeit with varying regulatory changes which will affect them all & cannot be ignored or anticipated accurately; but I can't just refuse to invest in one or all strictly for moral or ethical reasons. There are a ton of gaps in what I've written here (mostly the future regulatory / statutory implications) & any comments would be welcome (I bought a third of what I'd like to own so someone talk me out of buying any more...) I won't attempt to hang a valuation on it (I kind of already did with a purchase at $49.80 but I'm basing it on historical PE, PB, PFCF, PS & my own GIGO discounted FCF using a 12% discount & 6% 1-5 years, 8% 6-10 & 8% 11-15 years growth with a 4% terminal & no tangible added.) Earnings call coming up 22 February.

You weren't kidding about Breakthrough Advertising ($450 minimum & interestingly enough Amazon offers to let you trade in your copy for $2.) Thanks for these suggestions (added to the stack...)

That's a great idea. Let's use our powers for good, guys and gals. I'm for Colorado or Amsterdam!

Can anyone recommend a good book(s) on this? I found these on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/0130957011/ref=wl_it_dp_o_pC_nS_ttl?_encoding=UTF8&colid=PYCT6KM3B94B&coliid=I2JINMPD6W8IJW and https://www.amazon.com/dp/B008O5K0JE/ref=wl_it_dp_o_pC_nS_ttl?_encoding=UTF8&colid=PYCT6KM3B94B&coliid=I1YDQUWMZ80FX4

Great job Schmucko (stay douchey!)

You just made me realize that my aversion to debt in personal finance has bled over into my portfolio. I still feel comfortable with this approach because I know that I'm incapable of analyzing situations where complex debt structures are employed (can't separate good from bad...) & just about any increased level of debt seems complex to me. I've looked at many of the ideas presented here & when I see big leverage (especially when coupled with lumpy cash flows) I just walk away (believing it's outside my wheelhouse when maybe I'm actually just being lazy.) I like Howard Marks idea that protecting for downside is more important that planning for upside (I view debt as a big factor in this & realize that I can be neglectful of MOS in the process.) I'm wrong for not trying to learn how to look at these things & I'm right for staying with a consistent philosophy?!? Can't always be right but I can remain comfortable...