Fly
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Posts posted by Fly
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Chinese love BTC, will they love the ETF?
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Icahn bought 10% of JBLU
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What is the exit plan for a stock like this? Yes hold forever as long as valuation supports it… but what if that changes and it is no longer is a hold? Can you realistically exit at a price reflecting your thesis on the stock?
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On 1/22/2024 at 3:51 PM, SharperDingaan said:
The story goes that some folks went for an evening cruise on the Baltic. Supposedly the very early stage miners, BTC mining for them had just been the cool 'new' thing at the time; but they were now all moving on, and their wallets contained thousands of BTC. The US was closing down the silk road, was one of the largest holders of BTC, and there was a need for a graceful way 'out'. The various digital keys got put on USB sticks, and to the clink of champagne glasses, all the sticks were dropped into the sea; salt water ensuring non recovery of the keys, no matter the temptation.
SD
Hence the “boating accident” meme in the community -
17 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:
Useless because of the friction created by using a payment instrument which generates capital gains/losses as part of its use - and this is of course relative to the alternative use of digital fiat - most notably the visa/mastercard network. USD is the L1 (not a capital good, the currency of the land therefore no capital gains) & then visa/mastercard as the L2 settling the transaction between buyer and merchant.
In this model - you purchase a gallon of milk and the transaction settles immediately. The milk cost $5, you paid with a visa debit - end of the transaction.
This is not necessarily new - but btc trading in ETF form dooms in it a sense to being a capital good in our taxation system.
So the L2 payments use case for btc (as rival M/V) is effectively using a capital good BTC (with a cost basis) to perform the same transaction. Generating a gain (or loss) on sale.
In this model - you purchase a gallon of milk at the store for $5....you fire up your L2 app as tap to pay.... you push/it pulls btc from your wallet to the L2.....a capital gain is created....the merchant gets $5 USD or btc if like a cost basis event.
But this is not the end of the transaction for you.
The cost of the milk - is $5 + whatever capital gain occurred on the btc at the point of btc liquidation......the milk is now $5 + 0.35c capital gain x 35% federal tax say ~$0.10c.....and you need to provide that transaction to your tax accountant in April the following year.
Doesn't sound like a great visa/mastercard scale competitor to me.
With something like Strike you use a USD bank account to instantly buy BTC, and send via L2 lightning network to the seller, who can also instantaneously change the BTC for USD which gets deposited to their bank account. No tax liability since the transaction occurs instantaneously. BTC L2 is merely used as a payment rail. -
23 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:
Part of me believes this.
The other part of me thinks this might be where the traditional book bust cycle gets broken - or perhaps it gets broken AFTER this cycle.
If this does take on a staple approach in investors' portfolios of 1-5%, and as the halving becomes less impactful relative to daily traded volume, I expect the traditional boom/bust cycle over 4 years may be significantly more muted as consistent/passive flows come in as a base of demand.
I don't have strong conviction here - but it does make me wonder if this is a game changer relative to it's prior history.
I'm just concerned with the amount of BTC that will be centralized into Coinbase wallets for the purposes of ETF holdings. Centralized point of failure is always an issue, but beyond that what will be the use case for BTC if it is all tied up in ETF holdings? Will we be able to move beyond store of value and back to medium of exchange? This is why I think we see a dramatic rise in BTC price, but then reach a saturation point where this becomes a concern followed by another bust cycle.
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7 hours ago, Dave86ch said:
The trojan horse is inside the walls.
So true, this ETF issue will be the rise and the fall of this cycle.
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On 1/3/2024 at 1:29 PM, Longnose said:
95% of the crypto mania was a scam.
But i am still a fan of the technology and I believe it will continue to be influential in the future.
BTC is the only one crypto I consider to be truly decentralized and potential to be an alternate currency.
I think most proof of stake tokens including (ETH, SOL, AVAX, Etc..) are not truly decentralized. But I think the most interesting applications of crypto in future will occur in theses tokens.
And acknowledging the stuff in the podcast. The stuff that was going on during the crypto mania was 100% whacky
Agree with the Bitcoin vs crypto sentiments.
regarding future developments of smart contracts I just don’t see any reputable company using a blockchain they have zero control over. These chains are centralized as you stated, so just adds so much risk for a corporation to rely on something they have little influence over.
private blockchains run by the company using them might make more sense, or perhaps niche industry chains where a few companies can share the control. And definitely won’t be a platform token required like ETH/SOL/etc
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On 12/10/2023 at 2:54 PM, Malmqky said:
I have a few bitcoins held in a wallet on an old laptop of mine. Don't remember the credentials to access. Sad days.
Painful. Was this back in the old days running the bitcoin core wallet? search your computer for the wallet.dat file and if you find that you can copy it to a new installation and recover the coins.
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16 hours ago, ValueArb said:
And who said someone calling it a "currency" actually makes it a viable currency? Again, fluctuating 80% a year in price doesn't make anything a viable currency.
So true, just look at JPYUSD chart. Dead currencies everywhere!
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5 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:
I don't see why this has to be any different then other monetary systems - most transactions will take place on layer 2 type solutions and side-chains. But having the optionality of layer 1 is still valuable
Agree but that base layer needs to have ultimate security and PoW is the best consensus method when security is the priority. I like to think of the Bitcoin Network layer 1 as the same as Fedwire, slowish but ultimate security particularly for big transactions. The Lightning Network is built on top of Bitcoin as a Layer 2, which would be comparable to something like a Visa/MC credit card network in terms of speed/throughput. Other layer 2s are being developed as well which serve niche purposes (like Liquid) and possibilities are endless.
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On 10/30/2023 at 2:25 PM, Dinar said:
I think SBF is a genius with zero common sense.
No, just a narcissistic idiot with no common sense.
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On 10/13/2023 at 6:56 PM, rkbabang said:
I too think Bitcoin is different from all of the others. My thinking is that Bitcoin is money. It is the most secure and decentralized computer network ever createdI think this is way under appreciated, particularly by those who view all crypto as a scam. The importance of a neutral money free from the baggage of being tied to a sovereign nation is enormous.
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3 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:
Jeffries analyst says United Airline would save $80M/year due to GLP-1 if the average passenger weight falls by 10 pounds. Less weight and load leading to less fuel consumption.
This all seems way overdone. Sure, the $80m savings if everyone loses 10lbs makes sense but how likely is it that the majority of the flying public gets on GLP-1 and loses 10lbs? I'll believe that when I see it.
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On 10/10/2023 at 4:10 PM, rkbabang said:
New Fidelity report on Bitcoin. Pretty basic bitcoin-maximalist arguments, but since I've basically become a Bitcoin-maximalist myself (even though I still hold a significant amount of other crypto assets) I agree with them.
1012662.3.0 Bitcoin First Revisited_Final.pdf 1.96 MB · 16 downloads
Differentiation between bitcoin and everything else seems to be a key theme of the paper, and an important one. It is difficult to even have a conversation about bitcoin when the first words out of someone's mouth are "crypto is just a scam" knowing they are correct when referring to the recent drama with incidents like FTX, 3AC, and general snake oil sales mentality of 99% of the market. I also feel like "crypto" is just a scam, but bitcoin is a completely separate animal and one that deserves close attention.
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This is an excellent board, but I do wonder what it would be like if all posts were purely anonymous similar to the way something like 4chan operates. I like the idea of removing the connection with a specific username which shifts the focus to the content of the message. Many message boards silo into cliques over time and past disagreements throw shade over a future concept that is discussed. Just food for thought.
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3 hours ago, Dave86ch said:
Imprecations aside, what is Munger's thesis?
It always been in this way then it has to be like it forever?
I'm trying to follow a more rational approach through my Diary
It is hard to understand what his case is against BTC, but seems to be along the lines of fiat currency has allowed great innovation that BTC somehow can't replicate?
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On 3/26/2022 at 3:10 AM, throw123 said:
learning to fly
Enjoy it! I miss the days of chasing the perfect $100 hamburger.
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On 4/20/2022 at 2:08 PM, crs223 said:
Great opportunity for someone to launch an new airline that guarantees the schedule (without charging a premium).
I doubt Buffett would invest, but maybe we could get Elon.
That's the problem. You can get guaranteed (or as close to guaranteed as possible) schedules, but you need to pay for a private jet. Everyone wants it and are willing to pay the same as if they were filling the gas tank in their SUV.
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5 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:
Article about money laundering in cyrpto in WSJ today. Fairly balanced in its view.
Points out that money laundering is happening, and increased in 2021, but that it's a small portion of all transactions (0.05%). Also that the bulk of it is tied to just 5 services/dApps and the flows fairly easy to follow if Feds want to get involved. It appears my assertions of public blockchains being terrible for crime continues to be backed up.
The Bitcoin/crypto is for criminals narrative needs to die now.
Don't worry, we've moved onto the next boss which is "Bitcoin is bad for the earth."
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On 1/11/2022 at 3:33 PM, Parsad said:
Miller's whole argument for investing in crypto is because it is a supply/demand issue like artwork or collectibles. Accordingly, the argument is it's worth what people want to pay. This is the best argument for crypto and the worst argument for it at the same time!
Artwork/collectibles can be sold or bartered, but ultimately are useless as currency. They are a store of value because of their utility as a collectible...investors can look at it/sell tickets to view it/donate it and receive tax receipts. But it can never really be used as a replacement for currency.
Ultimately, this current batch of crypto will be viewed as collectibles...whatever people want to pay for it. What that value is is anyone's guess. Cheers!
BTC is fungible, divisible, portable. You can send it anywhere in the world 24/7/365 without trusting any intermediaries. Try that with art, stocks, fiat, gold, etc.
Think beyond the asset and think about the value of bitcoin as a payment rail.
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On 12/14/2021 at 11:53 AM, Longnose said:
I've been poking around with yield farming and staking some ETH based project tokens. Anyone else playing with that?
Check Barnbridge out, they have some pretty interesting products:
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On 11/19/2021 at 5:11 PM, matthew2129 said:
At current prices, BTC requires over $400M of inflows per WEEK(!) just for the price o fBTC to remain flat. Even if you DGAF about the environmental impact of PoW, PoW blockchains are a melting icecube that will become an increasingly smaller and smaller size of total crypto market cap going forward
Assuming miners sell all that they mine...
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3 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:
Now that smart contracts and L2 solutions are here for Bitcoin, trending that way myself.
Ethereum is cool. DAOs are cool. But it will never get mainstream attraction if you're paying $50-$100 to do a transaction.
Nailed it. ETH price increases makes transacting on chain more expensive which is a problem considering the main use case is interactions with smart contracts. It is a utility token that is also trying to be a store of value. At least with BTC the "killer app" is buy and hold forever which doesn't incur frequent transaction costs.
Cryptocurrencies
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Do you think physical cash bills/coins will exist in 5-10yrs?