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hswoon

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Posts posted by hswoon

    Will indexers be dissapointed...

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    If someone is willing to hold through a bear market or two and keep investing passively and dollar-cost average through those times, then the person will probably be better off staying in passive. What I envision is people abandoning ship at the bottom and try to chase active management in order to "make up" for lose ground.

     

    Personally, I always recommend passive for my own family (and half of my own portfolio is passive) but I constantly remind them do keep buying and to stay the course even while the markets are going down.

     

    Aren't people taking this for granted? If you had 'indexed' in the late 20s it would have taken you several decades before you end up with the same purchasing power as when you started, even if they held through the drawdowns.

    China Bust plays

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I don't know how betting against Chinese housing works out.  My understanding is that the housing sector may not be as bad as portrayed in the media.  I think industrial debt is more interesting -- although I haven't looked at how to make money on it.  There has been massive allocation in the industrial sector.

     

    What's the reasoning/data behind this?

     

    'The Chinese home real estate market, mostly units in high-rise buildings, is truly bizarre. Many Chinese regard apartments as capital-gains machines rather than sources of shelter. In fact, there are 50 million units in China that are owned but vacant. The owners won’t rent them because used apartments suffer an immediate haircut in value.'

     

    When your real estate market has overcapacity many multiples worse than US in GFC, and the empty apartments trade like depreciating assets...... who said it's not that bad??

     

    http://www.barrons.com/articles/anne-stevenson-yang-why-xi-jinpings-troubles-and-chinas-could-get-worse-1417846773

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