spartansaver
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Posts posted by spartansaver
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34 minutes ago, spartansaver said:
Has there ever been a manufacturing company in history (or any company) that added $60B of revenues in a single year? I'm just curious because that is wild, don't really care about the stock.
Amazon has done it several times, but that's a very different animal. Apple in 2021. Google in 2021.
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21 hours ago, mattee2264 said:
265% revenue growth in one year! And revenue expected to double over the next year.
The gold rush continues.
Has there ever been a manufacturing company in history (or any company) that added $60B of revenues in a single year? I'm just curious because that is wild, don't really care about the stock.
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I don't have any skin in this game but man am I cheering for Fairfax to put on a short squeeze. Good luck! Diamond Hands!
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4 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:
FTX Expects to Repay Customers in Full, Bankruptcy Lawyer Says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-31/ftx-expects-to-repay-customers-in-full-bankruptcy-lawyer-says
I haven't yet read Michael Lewis's profile yet, but it's on my list next. I'm familiar with his take that Sam probably isn't as bad as the media portrays him, but that illegal stuff was absolutely going on.
But if this is true, then perhaps he was right. If there are no losses to creditors/depositors, was any fraud really perpetrated?
Maybe just really loose/sloppy controls for an organization of that size.
I read it, very fun read. I haven't read the other bitcoin book out there from what I understand makes FTX looks very bad. The Lewis portrayal makes it looks like the dumbest fraud in history. Enormous value and incentives aligned to FTX and not much value to Alameda and they let Alameda blow up FTX. It just seemed dumb and unnecessary.
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10 minutes ago, alxcii said:
Gotta pull out Naval here:
Gotta pull out Twain here "History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes”. I get it, it's got a lot of stuff going for it, presenting both sides of the coin.
Also for you quote snobs, its not certain Twain actually said this.
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I can see the pros and cons of bitcoin. Cons are it could be the next Tulipomania. Pros are its supply is fixed, decentralized, governments destroy their currencies, and if this continues to survive it could be a currency that is used in everyday transactions worldwide. I don't really lean either way, but I do think that even if it is a giant ponzi scheme its somewhat interesting that a lot of people are about to get invited to the ponzi party. Supply is essentially fixed, and demand might go up a bunch as it becomes much less of a hassle to throw a few sheckles at BTC. I don't directly own any but am participating through a position in FRMO.
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It's always nice to know why something is falling. Do any of you have a good framework for knowing when tax loss harvesting is driving down a share price (other than its near year end and the stock is down on the year)?
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Interview from last year just released. Funny stuff about transdigm. He’s in his prime here
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One of my worst areas of investing has to be building a position. I mainly deal in the micro space and can move prices with small orders. Does anyone have any recommendations of things to read to help in this area? Is it worth just finding a full service broker and letting them deal with it?
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I'd say the opposite, lean into big ideas. You'll learn what works and what doesn't. I learned very early on about leverage and operational issues because I had a big position (at the time) in a company I followed someone else into. If I'd done 30 different small ideas I don't think lessons would've been taken. You can stand to learn at this point without mistakes costing you a lot. Books are good but experience is best.
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4 hours ago, mcliu said:
I find this chart kind of fascinating. 3 companies doing essentially the same thing but somehow one of them manages to underperform by miles.
O’reilly, autozone, and advance auto?
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We had success with a program "Taking Cara Babies." Our now 10 month old has been sleeping 7-6:30 since 5 months or so. The biggest thing was letting her cry a little bit those first few times to let them put themselves to sleep. I think the program maxes the crying to 7 minutes then you sooth and start over. I felt it was some of the best money we've spent. Feels like the secret is to get out of the way and the baby will figure it out.
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Both businesses grow in-line with GDP - assume Invested Capital is $100.
Business A averages a 10% ROIC and earns that every year without fail.
Business B averages a 10% ROIC but earns -10% some years and +30% other years.
What are these two earnings streams worth?
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1 hour ago, Saluki said:
Yes, and people keep talking about China/Yuan being a reserve currency. That won't happen without a huge change in China going from a net exporter to a net importer. The reason people use the dollar is that, besides being the largest economy, we are a net importer. Since we have a trade deficit, we've bought more than we sold so there are lots of excess dollars floating around that people can use for international trade. If it was the Yuan, and they are selling more then they are buying, there would be a shortage of Yuan and what would people use? China could transition to a consumer economy, but they are still trying to grow enough to bring the last one or two hundred million people out of poverty. So it will be a while before that shift is possible.
What other viable alternative exists now? The Euro? Dollars and Yuan are gift certificates at Walmart and Costco. They are valuable because you can cash them in for something at the store. Europe doesn't make enough things like Oil, Agricultural crops, software, or electronics, for people to want to have their gift certificates. When people steal your credit card, they buy gift cards at Walmart to resell it. I'm sure they could use it to buy gift cards at Whole Foods, but you have fewer people that you could sell it to.
I've seen this stated before but does it have to be true? Could the Yuan just continue to appreciate relative to other currencies? I can split a Yuan up into smaller pieces and still transact in Yuan. Have any of the previous reserve currencies been countries that were net exporters?
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13 minutes ago, rkbabang said:
It is pretty unlikely we are the only intelligent beings in the universe, but I think it is far more likely that 1) we are the only intelligent beings in the Milky Way Galaxy; and 2) No beings exist anywhere with the technology for intergalactic travel. In which case we are for all intents and purposes very alone.
According to NASA there are ~300M potentially habitable planets in the milky way. That's a lot of chances for smart life to pop up.
I've always been doubtful that aliens have crashed on earth. They have good enough technology to travel from a planet light years away but they crash? Maybe we've spotted UFO's, I'm less certain around that.
If physics holds up as we understand it today (can't travel faster than speed of light), we likely won't ever meet any other intelligent life.
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13 minutes ago, Ross812 said:
Hats off to the guys who like to lift weights in the gym. I used to lift in my 20s and have the stretch marks to prove it. I got into rock climbing about 15 years ago and make it to the rock gym a few times a week. I can no longer bench press 245 lbs. but I would say I am as functionally strong as I have ever been and am closing in on 40.
I loath going to the weight gym, running, swimming basically anything that is a workout for the sake of working out. I do much better with healthy activities - rock climbing, slalom water skiing, and pickleball are my big three. Unfortunately, my knees are catching up with me and my passions are all horrible for my knees. I've had to start doing squats, deadlifts, and backward hill walks trying to strengthen them, but it feels like a losing battle.
Have you given the ATG Program a try? He's a bit promotional (knees over toes guy), but I've been working through his program and I've never been as explosive. The gist of the program is strengthening and lengthening (stretching) joint areas. I've lifted very heavy in the past but it never felt functional to me. This feels like a much more athletically minded program with a focus on improving durability. I've got no relationship other than paying a monthly fee. I'd be curious if anyone else on this forum has any familiarity with the program.
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8 minutes ago, Gmthebeau said:
If you sell at the top of a bull market and buy back at cheap you will end up with a lot more money in the long run. It's called risk management. You might google Seth Klarman and related investors you will learn they invest the same way. You want to buy more at cheap and sell at rich. You ideas are so basic I wonder if you are 24 years old just out of college?
#cluelesswindbag
Lol this just feels like a troll wanting to pick a fight.
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It’s not until next weekend.
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3 minutes ago, rkbabang said:
Ok, my statement was a little too broad. Obviously it isn't even possible to read "everything". But you should search out different views, make an effort to break out of your bubble, and read things that have some value even if biased. Try to see the bias and see if you can extract the value and ignore the non-sense. Also try to see things from the point of view of people you disagree with. If there is no value in something at all (i.e. CNBC) then I agree you should ignore it completely. I do think ZH has some value as long as you keep the source in mind as you are reading it. It's one of those sites that I skim the headlines and read an article here and there.
I think it's important to keep an open mind. I remember when Muscleman first described the situation in Wuhan. Those initial posts allowed me to formulate a pretty unique view that helped make 2020 one of my best investment years. I would say that while I viewed the posts to some degree with skepticism (it sounded like the world could end) they were actually quite accurate and no mainstream media outlet was ready to say just how bad it could get.
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18 minutes ago, DooDiligence said:
So maybe the Oracle does a ton more DD after an initial purchase, just like a lot of people
This is my strategy, nothing gets the mind working like real dollars at risk.
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55 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:
Haha - swingtrader Warren:
Cool find.
I'd be curious to see this on a dollar basis. I would guess holding longer naturally makes the ones he's held longest the highest dollar basis. I also think it shows a strategy of buying and killing. As in start to buy something and then kill it so it leaves the portfolio quickly.
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13 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:
Globalization might be responsible for the 40yr dis-inflationary trend we've experienced.......and we've got all the talk of it unwinding........but I think we've definitely got another candidate for dis-inflation now in AI based on what I've seen.....its completely turned upside down my view on where we go now......GPT4 is that good......in so many respects it solves the 'blank page' issue in various avenues of the working world......think of the email it takes 30 minutes to write or an outline/proposal/committee document so many of us spend time writing in their jobs or getting others to draft up for us.....GPT4 is not going to do it completely....but to me it looks like it can do perhaps 80% of the structural heavy lifting & whereby a human then would come in and add/edit deeper insights & thoughts outside of the mundane ones GPT4 drafts up.......it strikers me in the various roles I've had thats its akin to what you might ask a junior member of staff to draft up on your behalf having giving them a previous doc template they follow....... knowing full well that you will be required to take that draft & add deeper interlinked insights, context, internal org strategy/poltics...industry trends etc........
The games of cat and mouse in offices around this will be fun to watch.......as older staff members assume X task would take Y number of days to complete....and junior analysts use GPT to do it 15 minutes
Oh the fun
I’m not a tech person and usually can’t use most of that stuff, but I’ve been playing around with gpt4 since Friday. It’s one of the most amazing things I’ve ever seen. It just hits me over the head. I’m usually skeptical of tech stuff being revolutionary, but if I had to wager it seems like the odds are good. The speed is also wild. We are on gpt4, what does gpt10 look like?
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1 hour ago, DooDiligence said:
I remember these from when I was a kid and just randomly came across this fun little story. The business was originally started as a place to demonstrate the invention of the flame broiler, but the restaurant itself proved a success and they started rolling them out. Burger Chef apparently developed a lot of other fast food concepts which are still in wide spread use today. The major lesson involves the perils of overly fast expansion.
https://www.mashed.com/238779/the-untold-truth-of-burger-chef/
https://www.amazon.com/Flameout-Rise-Fall-Burger-Chef/dp/1456418637
It's a decent read about a failed burger chain.
Statement of Comprehensive Income
in General Discussion
Posted
Outside of Banks and Insurance, is there ever a useful time to look at the Statement of Comprehensive Income? I almost always skip it, and just wondering if anyone has found any use to it.