Jump to content

sarganaga

Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    152

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by sarganaga

    why do people and nations accept inflation if it's so negative?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    ha, there's no tension, just relaying how i see things. I'm not a macro guy, but I'll happily be branded as the permabull in the hood on the right.

     

    I really like the breaking down the net worth distribution. Can you point me to the source?

     

    I am really struggling with the top 2%-10% having 16x as much in assets as liabilities. This seems crazy to me based on anecdote (but the data is the data). someone needs about $1.3 million to make it to the top 10%. Who has $1.3mm net worth and virtually no liabilities? seems like a terribly unlevered way to go through life!

    https://dqydj.com/net-worth-percentile-calculator-united-states/

     

    We have significantly more than $1.3 million and no debt. No mortgage or loans, credit cards paid off entirely each month. It's been like that for over 30 years.

    It's been much easier/less stressful  to take business and investment risks on a cash basis. I can see how far down is. I realize this is not the best path for everyone, but it's worked well for me.

    What are you buying today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Lumen (LUMN)

     

    Can you share any compelling writeups that you've come across?

     

    Hey, here's a podcast episode going into the details of the company and the investment case. Basically its just a really cheap telecom company with 100-200% upside and a heavily incentivized CEO to unlock that value.

     

     

    Thanks for the podcast link. This is a very informative discussion about Lumen (LUMN) that starts with the merger of Century Link and Level 3 in 2017.

     

    Good listen!

    What are you buying today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Lumen (LUMN)

     

    Can you share any compelling writeups that you've come across?

     

    Michael Burry likes the stock.

     

    This article from Seeking Alpha and the discussion which follows lays out most of the bullish and bearish arguments https://seekingalpha.com/article/4405414-lumen-reports-solid-fourth-quarter

     

    Bears see declining revenue, lots of stock compensation for management, some still butt hurt over dividend cut awhile back after management indicated it was safe.

     

    On the positive side for me

     

    Lumen generates quite a bit of cash flow that it's using to pay down debt substantially. That's what they said they were going to do when they cut the dividend.

     

    A well covered dividend north of 8%.

     

    Michael Burry's involvement helps me convince myself that I'm not just being a misguided yield whore.

     

    Value investor, Mason Hawkins, has it as his largest position across his Longleaf funds. He's underwater having owned it since 2017. He met with Lumen management in December and added to his position. FWIW his performance has been grim as it has for many real value managers.

     

    There's a wide discrepancy between what believers and unbelievers see as true value for this one. I'm choosing to see the glass half full. A bit less than 4% position for me.

     

     

    Hi Ho Silver

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I've had a soft spot in my investing heart for silver for a long time. I made my first serious money trading silver back in the 1970's during the Hunt brothers' silver exploits. I sold my futures contracts too soon and my junk silver too late, but still made life changing money for me at the time.

     

    I've owned a bit of coins and bars  since the late 1990's. We'll see how this goes.

    1999 again?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Saw some recent click bait inviting you, yes you, to join Sarah Palin for the American Prosperity Summit. There you can learn how she has been able to make as much in two weeks as investment professionals might make in two years.

     

    Not exactly stock tips from the shoeshine boy, but still...

     

    Also, my auto mechanic has gotten interested in day trading.

    Current Holdings

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Oil & Gas Pipelines (PAGP, OGZPY)    4%

    U.S. Dividend Stocks (SCHD)          6%

    Timber (ACAZF)                              6%

    Emerging Market Bonds (TEI)          6%

    Oil & Gas Royalties CRT, DMLP)        8%

    Cash                                            15%

    Emerging Market Value (FEMS,DEM) 22%

    Gold                                              33%

     

     

×
×
  • Create New...