investor-man
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Posts posted by investor-man
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Like you, my longstanding Flybe holding has been a gold medal winning downhiller, but I don't have the bravery to add to it.
I'm sure 2019's biggest winner will be something like Flybe -- an existential risk that never materializes -- or something highly levered. For the same reasons, I suspect I won't own it.
The difference between you and me is probably experience. Perhaps I'll learn to be more like you after this.
Anyway - anybody have any good ideas? Seems there's got to be some good deals out there and KJP and I have both given out a name.
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Can you have a large portion of your portfolio in Flybe given the Brexit risk (both risk to operations and effect of likely decline in pound on cost of USD-denominated debt and fuel)?
I was going to nominate Parkit for this thread, but decided not to because I don't have a significant portion of my personal wealth in it and can't recommend anyone else do so. But if you asked me what company in my portfolio is most likely to double next year, I'd say that one.
It was up around 10% of my portfolio earlier this year. It has dropped about 75% over the last month. I bought it back up to roughly 7.5% today. I don't think I'll buy any more until after March (supposing it looks good then). "No deal" seems an unlikely scenario to me. Either way, I've got the stomach to find out.
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No responses? I'll bite - FLYB:GB is now trading at about 2x operating cash. Not the prettiest picture, and some obvious clear risks, but very cheap.
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Don't ask. If he wanted you to know he'd have told you.
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Well thanks! I always feel deeply indebted to the people here, so I try to help when I can. I'm still learning this stuff, and really value the discussion - at least when it's not ugly :)
I went with Ferengi Rule of Acquisition #3 for my signature - thanks for the suggestion :) Reading through them I think #76 is my favorite: "Every once in a while, declare peace. It confuses the Hell out of your enemies."
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you can make Google search for you (and it's probably better). Just enter the following example into Google (works for any site): "site:cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca korean preferred"
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45.36%. Biggest winners were GNCMA and Autohellas, which I both had a large stake in and both doubled (Thanks Packer!). I also did fairly well with GXE.TO ~50% since I bought quite a bit as it bottomed. The rest of my holdings went roughly with the market.
P.S. I got a 10x on my Ethereum, but I only own one :) I'm a software engineer and I think the tech is cool - especially Ethereum - but I can't make myself feel comfortable putting a significant amount of money in it. I think all of us can anecdotally point to someone we know offering advice on crypto currencies who has no business doing so, including the receptionist at my company. This scares me.
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Yikes
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After reading that I'm seriously considering purchasing VIX with the extra cash I have on deck
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Congrats!!! Really appreciate everything you've posted here and wish you the best of luck with this endeavor!
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I use both a spreadsheet for a more detailed view but also use Personal Capital for a broad view.
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@Parsad, how about a politics section? A nice place where all the dipshit lefties and righties can post their nonsense somewhere I don't have to see it ;D
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... thread hijacked by trolls.
It sounds like a great idea, but not really for me. I'd try posting it again in a month or maybe somewhere else if the trolls persist.
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Always remember that these are marketing pieces, to increase assets under management at minimal/no additional cost. Get punters to save more, and get paid a quarterly fee on it; 10K of fees on every additional 1M paying a 1% fee.
What is retirement? To many its stop work at 65, & never work again – for most that means getting packaged out between 55-65. To others there are actually 3 retirements; young (65-75), medium (75-85), and old (85+) – the ‘75’ is the new ‘65’. Hence it really comes down to what are you retiring to?
When you’re working, you aren’t spending; even if you’re either working fewer hours a week, or working full time for just a few weeks/months per year. For most people, when you’re working - $in are > $out – so why do you need 8x existing income?
If you’re making your own job, there’s also no ‘retirement’ age; it’s simply when you don’t feel like doing it any more – so why do you need so many years of 8x income?
But more importantly, when you’re ‘old’ – staying ‘engaged’ is a life extender; better mental & physical health, better attitude, better everything. So you have terrific incentive to get it right … & have had 30-40 years of practice doing exactly that.
Suddenly the marketing piece isn’t looking so good any more.
The bummer is that it’s very hard (but not impossible) to take a tradeable position against the BS that these marketing pieces promote.
Probably a good thing.
SD
well said
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I've only used gurufocus for research myself. I noticed morningstar premium is pretty cheap. I'm curious to know from those of you who have used both what the difference is? Also, if there's other research sites you prefer I'd like to hear about it.
Thanks.
I believe gurufocus uses morningstar data, so you kinda get a two in one there. That said, I don't believe gurufocus subscribes to all of morningstar's data, like their data on ETFs and mutual funds.
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XIRR for 2016: 30.86%
It's one of my best years and also the year I made the least amount of trades with 7, which is more than I would have thought if I hadn't just counted them. I got into investing about half-way through 2013 and did pretty well that year, but I think I became overconfident and probably "over-interested" in investing through 2015. I paid altogether too much attention to my balance and read up on too many ideas, which caused me to bounce around from name to name. Hopefully I've kicked that habit a bit.
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If any of you have left me a voicemail, then I'm quite disappointed in you. Please stop. I don't want to listen to it. Also on a whim I decided to follow ERICOPOLY into VRX for only one mere day, and lost 10% of my money. Very disappointing ERICOPOLY.
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"animal spirits" implies irrationality. I think Dalio's past bearish story is still valid, he's just now saying, "we might see some crazy shit!"
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saw this pic on Value Walk. Thought you guys would appreciate it
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Saw that headline on Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-07/bulls-awaken-to-european-stocks-cheapest-to-u-s-since-2009
I've seen Flybe over at red corner. Does anyone have anything they are overly excited about that they'd like to share?
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All those value investors who admire Buffett, including many on this board, praising his integrity, are completely out of their mind by supporting a guy like Trump. I must admit that I am still completely shocked that someone can want a guy like this as a President. His knowledge on so many subjects are so thin and he bahaves like an impulsive teenager so often. USA is looking like a banana republic from the outside.
He's likely the best US president in my lifetime. Is that because he's so good? Nah, it's just that all the other ones have been complete crap. 1 foot hurdles ;)
Yes
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I also didn't vote for Trump and had similar thoughts after the election was over when I read Trump's "Contract with the American Voter" https://assets.donaldjtrump.com/_landings/contract/O-TRU-102316-Contractv02.pdf
Don't take this personally, but I wanted to call this out because I find this is so typical. So many people are so entranced by the mainstream media mudslinging that they didn't evaluate the candidates on their proposed policies. After the fact, the elections over, and now people are saying "I didnt vote for the guy, but when I look at his proposed policies they're not that bad". How can you cast a vote and without having evaluated the candidates actual policies?
Not taking it personally. That contract was posted only a week or two before the election, so I didn't see it. And frankly Trump did a terrible job of articulating his positions during the debates. I'm still not sold on him. He's a terrible person, but I see promise in the document. Hopefully he gets the parts that I like done :)
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I also didn't vote for Trump and had similar thoughts after the election was over when I read Trump's "Contract with the American Voter" https://assets.donaldjtrump.com/_landings/contract/O-TRU-102316-Contractv02.pdf
There is some good stuff in there that I think almost every American agrees with, like term limits on members of congress, and banning them from becoming lobbyists for 5 years. It's refreshing to have an elected official talking seriously about this, and if he pulled that off along with the "pass 1 law only if you lose 2 laws", I'd honestly call him the best president of my lifetime. But I believe term limits would require 2/3 vote from congress because it requires a constitutional amendment, and I just can't see them voting themselves out of a job. And the "pass one 1 law..." amendment probably isn't something that would see wide popular appeal. I think in order to pull these things off he'd have to become EXTREMELY popular and given he just went on another Twitter rant last night that made no sense, I don't think he's going to gain that kind of popularity.
CoBF members 2018 returns
in General Discussion
Posted
3.4% I'm shocked frankly. Thought I'd be negative. I was up about 33% in June