Max Alpha
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Posts posted by Max Alpha
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Mayweather should be too good and outpoint Manny in a competitive fight. Floyd is closer to his prime and would have been a huge task at any point.
Will be interesting to see what gameplan Roach has concocted for Manny. Most success against Floyd has come from pure volume of punches because no one in this generation has had the tools to outscore him punch for punch.
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Manufacturing is leaving Australia because of the high cost of blue collared wages/minimum wage.
They had a 20 year boom with no recessions. Unemployment levels have been extremely low and the mining companies increased demand for labour over the last 10 years especially.
If commodity prices drop for any reason what does Australia fall back on? The economy today is reliant on mining, finance (again related to the mining companies and Sydney has been the big beneficary), tourism, manufacturing (Melbourne) and real estate related construction.
1) Tourism has been slowing because of the high AUD.
2) Mining has recently started slowing and several projects have been called off due to Chinese demand not being there.
3) House prices are high and personal debt levels are fairly high as well - real estate can't go much further.
4) If mining companies slow down and the demand for capital isn't as high - Sydney would slow down.
5) There aren't many jobs for engineers other than the car companies and mining related stuff in Australia. If the car companies leave and mining slows down their wages will not be rising anytime soon.
I wasn't referring to white collared wages as much. If my cost of labour to manufacture is high, I don't see how engineers would have anything to design or build unless you manufacture locally.
Unfortunately there is no tolerance for meaningful reform in the Australian political climate, it will take a recession to put these issues back on the table so to speak.
The currency has unfortunately been warped by the QE programs and record low interest rates persisting around the globe. In the long run though (several years away) Australia should cease having such a large interest rate differential with mature economies and a weaker currency should help offset some of the pain as the CapEX spend falls out of the mining sector.
The stubborn high iron price has helped mitigate the damage to the economy from the collapse that has occurred in thermal and coking coal prices, gold etc. Iron ore is the one that really has the potential to throw a spanner in the works, fortunately the issue is more one of near-term over supply versus the terminal structural headwinds that face thermal coal.
In the long term necessity will force reform upon Australia to help re-balance away from mining. In the medium term though it will take some suffering to create the political will.
The exodus of car manufacturers and manufacturing in general is due to a bit of a perfect storm of conditions but it is also largely a self inflicted injury due to the ridiculous state of industrial relations in Australia. Guaranteed annual pay increases for the blue collar work force well above rates of economic growth and huge union intervention in the day to day management of large public companies are not sustainable.
The Enterprise Bargaining Agreement's for the workforces of Holden, Ford, and Toyota provided a death sentence for the industry but industrial relations and productivity are dangerous political issues.
We also suffer from terrible over-regulation in a number areas. The supply of higher density housing options in our capital cities has been hindered by high development costs due to slow approval processes and red-tape that must be overcome, hence all the somewhat justified talk of under-supply from the real estate spruikers.
This is finally starting to change however, especially in Melbourne and Brisbane where a lot of medium density apartment supply is coming online.
Another area where regulation has ruined our cost base is energy. We have the highest electricity prices in the world and also high gas prices and we are huge producers of both.
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Once they have the bomb what's to stop them from invading another country? I mean really, if they do it is the US really going to start a war with a nuclear opponent? Look at the games North Korea is playing and how they have gotten away with it. I don't think 50 years of a handful of countries with the bomb is a rock-solid argument that nobody, ever, guaranteed 100% will use them or threaten to use them or prevent them from falling into the hands of some rogue actor that is willing to use them. I just don't buy the argument. I remember when analysts were saying that housing prices only ever fall regionally, a nation-wide pullback in housing prices wasn't even modeled. They were wrong, how do you know you're not wrong? There is not enough data.
Why does this argument only apply to one potential nuclear power and not others? What is stopping Israel invading weaker countries in a meaningful way?
The use of nuclear weapons brings with it assured destruction for any marginal power / questionable regime. Iran don't have the conventional military power to mount an invasion of significance, and the use of nuclear weapons would see the end of their government and destruction of their cities and industries. Israel could wipe a nuclear Iran from the face of the earth if they were provoked in any way.
Iran isn't North Korea.
I won't lose any sleep if they gain nuclear weapons.
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When did a country with nuclear weapons ever attack another country with nuclear weapons?
When did a country without nuclear weapons ever attack a country with nuclear weapons?
When was the last time Iran attacked another country?
Can you explain your point?
I think the suggestion is that if Iran do gain nuclear weapons it is a non-event because they aren't actually going to use them, and once they have them, no one is going to attack them.
So basically the only chance of an armed conflict is prior to them achieving nuclear capabilities, after they do, they just become a more mature power and undermine the existing power brokers in the region (hence why no one wants it to happen).
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Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Hussman plays on the fact that extreme views get air time, even if he is wrong 11 times out of 12, when number 12 rolls around he will tell everyone i told you so. He might actually be approaching that hour where his views are briefly vindicated, but the forcing of his views down everyone's throat is a bit hard to stomach.
When the next major market correction rolls around he will suffer less in the short term and enjoy the limelight, then proceed to miss the rebound and suffer underperformance over the long run. The idea that markets are a mechanical thing that can be neatly timed near the brink, and reinvested in to take part in the rebound is silly.
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The tolerance for debt that the average Australian has is disconcerting, the amount of leverage the average person employs to buy a house is enormous. Most people see the minimum down payment as par for the course in an asset class that has experienced unprecedented growth.
Mention housing bubble, or equity markets as a viable alternative though and you get treated like a leper.
I have an old "friend" on facebook who is a real estate agent, the frequency and bullishness of his tone is the perfect indicator for housing sentiment in Brisbane. We didn't feel the benefit of the lower interest rates straight away here in Queensland because of the exposure to the free fall in thermal coal prices last year but it is definitely following Sydney's lead and starting to heat up here as well now.
A couple of years ago people might have been justified in their defense of housing price growth citing rapid income growth, record immigration levels, constricted supply due to red tape, high foreign investment etc etc. A lot of these conditions are going in the wrong direction now.
People frequently cite the sideways price action that preceded this recent run up as justification for sustainable prices. Going sideways doesn't count for much when you are already on the top floor.
If the sort of growth that Sydney is experiencing continues for the next 18 months things will get out of hand pretty quickly.
Investment thesis aside, it is pretty frustrating as a young person who would like to buy a first home.
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This book is fantastic!
Chernow is brilliant, his books on the Warburgs and JPM are great reads as well, especially if you are interested in the politics, finance and sentiment of the inter-war period and the transition of power from London to New York.
Titan is my pick of the bunch though.
His portrayal of Rockefeller's contrasting conservative christian private life and his working life as a peerless ruthless corporate predator who forced a re-writing of the rulebook is awesome.
What happened to this board?
in General Discussion
Posted
Most online communities go downhill as they get larger and become diluted, the core founding posters simply move on or are drowned by newer users.
Users experience the grass is greener back in the good old days thought pattern that all people are prone to, nothing is ever as good the second time around, pioneering is fun.
I don't think that is the issue here though.
There is a structural issue with the layout of the forum, most forums have a general category (for broad discussion of the forum's core topic), targeted sub categories, and an off-topic category.
Here we have the general category and off-topic category rolled into the one sub-forum. This isn't a big problem when the community is small, but as it has grown, and investment opportunities have declined, it starts to drown out on-topic discussion.