krazeenyc
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Posts posted by krazeenyc
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all this shit is scary as hell
https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-infection-may-cause-lasting-220307511.html
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reinfection? relapse? a bit scary....
https://www.yahoo.com/news/recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-positive-161747102.html
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NY has 26X as many deaths as CA - yet the California coast is densely populated. You also have thousands living in filthy tent cities and no out break.
In CA you have hospitals full of illegal immigrants - perhaps not overwhelmed yet...
The social policies with both governors were implemented within days of each other.
You had thousands of Chinese per day flying into NYC, LA, SF - more than any areas of the country.
It all looks pretty similar..
There is an awfully lot of guessing going on here, that's for sure. Can't possibly be herd immunity, could it?
Keep an open mind.
California coast not nearly as dense as NYC.
According to the NYT, the the majority of New York cases are European in origin.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/science/new-york-coronavirus-cases-europe-genomes.html
Keep and open mind.
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To further summarise some ideas I've seen:
Thanks for starting the thread. I’ve been watching a few other similar conversations so the below is a bit of a compilation.
I do think that those who predict long term changes in human behaviours or society are probably wrong. In five years, I think our economies and societies will look similar to today, although there will some changes at the margin.
Lots of them are accelerations of long term trends.
- The shift to digital continues with more of a tailwind as sections of the population that never shopped online were forced to and realised it was …. Ok.
- Employers realise that working from home can work at scale and will find it harder to justify expensive office rents
- The combination of the above and the recession leads to more “we work” type facilities (although not necessarily WeWork)
- Some employees will realise they got a whole load happier without the daily commute and demand to their employers they do it more, and will also look to shift away from “traditional” office based careers.
- Lots of companies realise they need a more prudent capital structure and raise capital. There is a general deleveraging.
- Individuals remember that having cash savings, even in a non yielding world, is vital as a buffer against lifes emergences. Savings rates go up.
- Governments are forced to finance their emergency spending with more debt issuance and higher taxes. This leads to increasing societal disharmony between old and young and higher vs lower paid.
- Those high quality businesses that were well insulated from the crisis become even more highly valued by investors in a zero interest rate world, and are rated even more higher by the stock market, leading to even more bifurcation between “high quality stocks” and the rest.
- As hospitals are built in ten days, drugs are approved in weeks, and businesses survive with whole departments working online, a lot of bureaucracy is revealed and for what it is and there is a bonfire of red tape and employment.
- China gets a “blamed” for the virus and the trend to move supply chains and against liberalisation of trade continues.
- Certain western governments are shown to be relatively incompetent and liberal democracy continues to be questioned. At the same time certain populists are thrown out of power.
Assuming we mostly get out of this mess in < 6 months.
Employers will realize -- mass working at home ... DOES NOT WORK.
Educators will realize -- virtual education... IS TERRIBLE.
Companies will deleverage, and people will be hermits, save, live healthier, etc. for a while..... UNTIL.. they don't.
Then people will smoke, drink, travel, and live their lives. And executives in charge will be greedy again and do more stock buybacks to maximize their compensation and bonuses.
I think one of the few lasting changes from this tragedy will be that SOME small percentage of people learn better hygiene habits and stick to it.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/nyregion/coronavirus-nyc-landlord-mario-salerno.html
Landlord waives april rent for all his tenants!
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You are assuming they are well-capitalized enough to pay rent on their units for 3-6 months? of rent on all their units without any income from the units... I think the premise is these folks are undercapitalized, but I could definitely be wrong.
You have a point. But in downtown Toronto specifically, which i was alluding to, it's just not the kind of market where someone with no buffer would own and rent. The market is just too expensive for lots of bad credit amateurs to be involved. The market has moved up strongly last several years so most unit owners would have plenty of equity to borrow against. Most responsible owners already have home equity lines set. There will definitely be downward pressure on rents and market values, but i don't see mass distressed selling or the banks tanking over real estate and liquidating.
The premise is not that individual owners of apartments are they themselves turning their units into airbnbs. The premise is 10 different individual owners are renting their units out long term to one airbnb "entrepeneur" ... who is in turn using airbnb as a platform to turn the 10 apartments into a mini-unlicensed "hotel" -- albeit at different physical addresses. Asset light!
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I'm not sure about China, but I wonder how this will affect the Canadian housing bubble. China has already had strict capital controls since a year or so ago. If that was partly fueling the Vancouver / Toronto housing market, that's definitely gonna be gone now.
As an aside, I just thought of something that could be the impetus for these tight lending standards by private investors. It's almost comical when you think about the side effects of some of these policies coming down from D.C. If you allow forbearance on mortgages for up to a year, why the hell would you want to lend money out for mortgages then as an investor? You don't even have to prove hardship from Covid 19 to stop mortgage payments. If I were investing in mortgage related securities, I would definitely not loan money to high risk groups. And, if you believe prices are coming down, I would also be wary of lower risk groups. People who were upside down their homes in post GFC were just letting the banks foreclose on the house and claiming bankruptcy on it.
Finally, I'm seeing house price reductions start to ramp up. Just saw another one relist 5% down. I followed a couple listings price history, and incidentally, these houses sold at a peak during 2007. Was resold for a huge loss in 2012. Now, they're being re-listed higher than the peak in 2007. Haha, wow. Can't wait to see how low these prices get in a year or two. We'll see.
Thousands of condos in Toronto were being rented out short term on sites like Airbnb, especially downtown where there is lack of hotels. All those rentals are basically dead now, and I suspect even after the lock downs are lifted tourism will be down for a while. It will be interesting to see how many of those condo owners can survive a downturn and if the high RE prices can be sustained.
I suspect many of the airbnb hosts will switch their units to long-term rental. This will bring down rents in the downtown core but why would they not survive?
now...those that had a "business" of signing 12-month leases just to turn around and throw it up on airbnb...those guys are gonna get smoked.
You are assuming they are well capitalized enough to pay rent on their units for 3-6 months? of rent on all their units without any income from the units... I think the premise is these folks are undercapitalized, but I could definitely be wrong.
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I wore a basic surgical mask on my last trip to Costco. My first time ever... I'm a white guy.
My initial impression: the mask makes it more likely that I may end up touching my face.
Human beings exhale humid air. Without a mask, humid air moves away from your face. With the mask on, humid air moves up and down the face through the openings around the mask. By the time I was done shopping, my brows and chin were wet and itchy. The natural urge is to wipe away the moisture with your bare hands. That's the wrongest thing you can possibly do right now.
Glasses is another hassle. Mine were constantly fogging up. I had to take them off, wipe them down, and put them back on multiple times. That surely adds to the risk of the virus transfer.
I have no idea how Asian people do it. Is there a secret technique I'm not aware of?
plenty of asian people touch their face too..
i think the biggest benefit of society wearing masks is it both helps to keep the wearer more safe (to an extent), but it also helps the wearer spread the virus less. I think the combination of the 2 seems to make a big difference.
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Does Gates know anything about infectious diseases? Isn’t he just some tech billionaire? What a dummy!
The Gates Foundation has been woking on infectious diseases around the world for more than a decade. Just read their annual reports. There are probably very few people with his combination of real world experience and knowledge of infectious diseases. He will be on a cnn tonite at 8 pm with Dr Fauci.
Viking's sarcasm went "whoosh" for this crowd... ::)
LOL.
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This might explain alot:
What if we had only the information above, and none of the other terrible true-but-skewed information flooding the news about doctors and nurses facing impossible decisions, PPE shortages and piled up coffins? What could explain what we were seeing?One explanation is that this new coronavirus is at least 10X more contagious and at least 10X less deadly than we think it is. The CDC data could be showing that younger people are being less careful than older people, so they’re getting sick sooner. The Italy and China data could be showing that the disease runs its course in a few weeks, since a highly contagious disease is impossible to truly contain.
Given that information, the pandemic could be summarized this way: A highly contagious virus with a 1-3% hospitalization rate and 0.1-0.3% death rate.
In other words, it could be like the entire flu season getting piled into a few weeks everywhere it hits.
The Italy and China data could be showing that the disease runs its course in a few weeks, since a highly contagious disease is impossible to truly containThis contradicts China data. If disease is highly contagious and impossible to contain, then there should be the same amount of deaths in all provinces rather than being superconcentrated in Wuhan.
Not so contagious it is impossible to contain, but watch the video above to see the kind of actions China has taken to contain it. are we going to do that here in the United States (or something even remotely similar?) -- should we? Just because they were able to get it under control with their actions, doesn't mean we will with ours.
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Heart Breaking...this is in New York City.
It seems that a huge part of the reason the death rate is so high in the elderly in Italy is that so many people (young and old) are sick and the health care system is so overwhelmed that they need to prioritize patients.. So people who would otherwise have lived, are dying. Yes, young people are not dying at a high rate, but they ARE getting sick and they are taking up resources and stretching them very thin.
Yes, shut it down, so our doctors, nurses, and hospitals have a chance. So people who get sick of something else have a chance.
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Japan imposed travel restrictions, visa suspensions and mandatory quarantines for international arrivals. Some of them quite early. Is it possible that these measures alone were enough? Can't get infected if no one brings the virus into your island nation.
I haven't done any analysis to test this theory.
https://www.japan.travel/en/coronavirus/
Yeah, but there are new cases in Japan. Just few. So they have virus inside the island. And with very little testing going on it should be superspread. Unless they somehow are really lucky to get every single person early on.
I spent 2 weeks in Japan in the middle of February. I think their numbers are almost certainly artificially low for lack of testing... but it's way different than it was here. While they didn't cut off flights from china, here are some factors i think contribute to there being a slower rate of spread there:
1) Government preparedness
Every building in Tokyo and Kyoto that i visited had gallons and gallons of alcohol hand sanitizer.
Everywhere I went they warned of the Coronavirus and to take precautions. The warning about the virus were everywhere from on the trains to the metro, to the airport.
Schools closed much earlier than here.
For employees who could work at home, that started earlier than here.
they had screening at the airport, when I returned to JFK we did not.
2) Cultural Differences.
it seems that in Taiwan and Japan, the spread of the common flu was already declining -- leading one to think people are already aware of not spreading their germs.
People, generally speaking, seem more willing to sacrifice for the whole... and seem to accept recommendations from the government.
masks - while they may not keep from getting the virus, if a big % of the population is wearing them, those who are sick are likely to spread it to less people.
Also, I think when your friend mentioned people taking off masks and touching their face, etc. i noticed that a lot too... but i think that's due to our paranoia... and being very aware of who's doing what!
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Listen, there's no reason to be here arguing with a bunch of dinosaurs who can't see the meteor coming. Keep buying banks at tangible book, and using your 20% off coupons on the market and see what comes. This isn't a primarily financial problem, and unlike 2008, the solutions will not be primarily financial.
I believe this is a huge issue, and in all honesty, I wish people would just prepare by social distancing, use soap and hand sanitizer, and stock up on normal groceries in case of a quarantine. Take care of your family, make sure they get RX refills if possible, and make plans to check in on older relatives.
If you want, buy puts, or move some to cash. Please please listen about the health issues. Normal people don't die en masse in normal times, and without people taking this seriously that is likely to happen.
Even though the solutions might not be primarily financial.... doesn't mean there won't be solutions. I'm optimistic.
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Someone in our town was just diagnosed with the virus. This person is now in induced coma (he is high risk group due to some heart problems).
He got infected after returning from a “security conference in SF” at the end of February.
I googled. And this is the conference I found in SF that is in the area of securities:
All those people attending, probably all at risk.
Agree, as well as the cab/uber driver that took him too and from the airport, EVERYONE in the airport. The guy who touched his baggage on accident at the carrosel. The guy who touched the elevator button after he did. The guy that touched the escaltor rail after he did. The woman that picked up his scarf when he dropped it leaving the air port. The attendant he bought a magazine from in the airport. EVERYONE on the plane. EVERYONE in the hotel, the person that touched the door knob into the hotel after he did, the cleaning lady who cleaned his room, the waiter that waited on him. The people that sat next time in the restaurant he went to. The woman who he handed a tip to at the bar. The person that sat in the same chair at the airport after his flight left, and everyone at the conference that had the same interactions he did.
Ok guys, your turn, of the above who do we test?
An employee working at facebook tested positive for coronavirus. I know someone who works very near that person (also at FB) with all the symptoms.. can't get tested. (this is my only personal story).
A nurse who treated a coronavirus patient has all the symptoms! Can't get a test -- denied by the CDC -- told... if you took the proper precautions you won't need it!
This tells me, the US is not prepared.
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Testing doesnt prevent the spread of the disease. Once you understand this it makes wrapping your head around the utility of testing much easier. If you dont test everyone, your effort will be futile. Which strains are you testing for? What your sensativity? Specificity? How are you going to deal with false positives? Negatives?
Assuming that testing prevents the spread of the disease is ignorant. That is not the case. It will help quarantine but the fact that there are asymptomatic patients, even 1% ruins the whole notion.
I'm not sure where I land on this issue as I'm definitely not a qualified expert, but perhaps I can ask you, who is someone more qualified - why are countries such as South Korea testing like crazy? I'm trying to put myself in your shoes, and please don't take offense, but I'm having a hard time reconciling what govts are doing vs. someone on the internet saying it doesn't matter.
Likely due to patient demand, and in an about face due to the fall out from SARS and MERS from years ago. The more you test the more positives you will get. What does that get you? IMHO it probably lowers your death rate. Does it prevent the spread. NO!!!!! If you have even 1% of population asymptomatic it will defeat the entire purpose of testing. Again testing is not a zero sum game. It will not catch everyone. Anyone aware of what the sensitivity, specificity etc is? What do you do with an even 1% false negative rate (which is extra ordinary in non serum test). That person has it, and walks, and spreads it.
Either you test every soul, ALL OVER THE WORLD, or you are essentially delaying the envitible infection of every human in the world. Whats the qualification to get the disease? Your a human. Eventually everyone will get this, very little relatively speaking will die.
Like Viking said, testing gives you more information and a better picture of the facts -- to make appropriate decisions. -- not 3 confirmed cases out of 9 tests bullshit that we've gotten so far. That gives people a sense that it's not here. Delaying is the key and why Italy is locked down, why school is out in Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and Hong Kong among other places. Why is delaying so important -- it gives hospitals MORE time to prepare, it gives schools the ability to launch virtual classes, the federal and state governments MORE time to prepare it gives researchers MORE time to possibly come up with a vaccine or medicine. Yes nobody can stop the disease but delaying and slowing the spread is crucial. If we continue to go out about our daily lives like they did in italy, what makes you think we won't be experiencing the same exact problems they're facing now.
Having returned from Japan a couple weeks ago there was literally 0 screening at JFK. It seems to me that our government has completely dropped the ball on this one.
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Today was a tremendous buying opportunity. This thing is worse than flu, but not by all that much. In many ways it's not as scary as flu because children are not dying.
I thought today of searching for a largish population where everyone was tested for the virus and where healthcare access was poor. Here it is:
"Of the 705 passengers who tested positive for the virus on the Diamond Princess, six died -- which is a death rate of less than 1%. All of the patients who died onboard were more than 70 years old."
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/early-mortality-rates-covid-19-misleading-experts/story?id=69477312
It's been a while since I've posted and while I was buying in the market yesterday... VNO in particular.
What seems to make coronavirus different (and we know very little as of now) is it seems that young healthy adults are MOSTLY fine... however they can be carriers and transmit the disease to those who are "at risk". How governments, society, and individuals manage this problem is very very tricky. What kind of economic toll will governments and people be willing pay?
Also, not to be alarmist, but decades ago the Spanish flu of 1918 (yes medicine, hygiene, etc are all much better) went away, and came back mutated and more deadly -- killing many healthy people. This is not my base case, but there is some small % possibility of this.
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Roughly ~9% return -- first year under 10% since 2008. 75% in cash and 25% in stocks.
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~16% overall. Much higher in my roth since EZPW was in there. Unfortunately I held between 50-70% cash all year and am closer to 70% as we speak. Besides EZPW, a bunch of positions acquired early in the year while the market was having a hissy fit, and a few event driven transactions (merger arb, etc) drove all the returns. My main core positions were generally break even in 2016.
Still like HCOM and ALSK a lot.
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Anyone know what's going on here? Massive short squeeze orchestrated by somebody?
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I don't know my way around SEDAR very well. I've been looking for AIMIA Series 2 Preferred Prospectus. Can anyone help? Thanks.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-04-20/the-wine-mogul-vs-fidelity
Interesting reading this article and seeing what caused to the insane cmed short squeeze a few years back.
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It is not apples to apples. First, rent is essentially principal + interest+ taxes + maintenance + profit. Mortgage interest is just what it says - interest. So making rent deductible would swing the pendulum beyond mortgage interest. Secondly, the owner of the rental property is likely already deducting the mortgage interest. You can't (or logically shouldn't) allow for something to be deducted more than once.
Sometimes the interest gets deducted twice. A realtor could rent an office and yet still deduct it from his income. The owner of the office building might be deducting mortgage interest. So is it deducted twice?
It's always okay for a business (like the realtor in this case) to deduct these kinds of things a second time. So the mere fact of it being a second swipe isn't really the issue.
Just seems to be that if you are paying for your primary residence, you get no deduction for that. Whether you own it or rent it, no deduction. (the price you pay for the home can't be deducted).
The law does allow for deducting the financing of your principle residence if you own it -- could probably do the same for people who need to borrow money to make rent (deduct the interest). This wouldn't solve a real problem, but it may shut up a few people who think it's unfair that homeowners can deduct the cost of financing their primary home.
"Fairness" on tax deductions is really iffy. On its own, why exactly is the mortgage interest deduction "fair"? Why is it more fair than if it did not exist at all?
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I think Albert Edwards from SocGen actually is one of the best economists out there. He's being ridiculed as a perma bear but in my opinion he "just always is far too early." If you've been following him an event like the current China/EM crisis and yuan devaluation didn't come as a surprise at all. He's been pro treasury bonds for years and people completely ignore what a great trade that was.
HAHA.
You will always be right -- as long as you're allowed to be far too early.
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10%. I spent much of 2015 selling. I've spent most of 2015 in >60% cash -- I'm actually closer to 65% cash atm. Managed for the most part to avoid losers, but no big winners either. Worried about similar things going into 2016 as I was going into 2015, but the prices on a bunch of names are much much cheaper today vs Jan 2015. Macys... for example.
531127AC2 - Liberty NY Dev Corprev Goldman HQ 05.25% 10/01/2035
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very interesting idea for this nyc resident.