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Yours Truly

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Posts posted by Yours Truly

    S&P indexing is moronic right now

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    In the past year or two, it has become a common refrain at financial independence blogs and related fora to push a 100% allocation to VTSAX, the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index.

     

    Most of these 'pushers' are Millenials who weren't even around for the crash of '08, much less the collapse of the late 1990s tech bubble or the 16 year (16 year!) S&P bear market from 1966 to 1982. The members of the 100% equities/VTSAX club believe that they will win out in the long run (they naturally decline to define "the long run") because US equities have always gone up. But as investors in 1929 and the mid 1960s discovered, the "long run" can be very long indeed.

     

    Despite the overvaluation, will the returns still be better than holding cash or bonds ?

    Multibagger speculative ideas

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Anyone look into MRS.cve ?

     

    It's a 30 million microcap that provides armored gear to law enforcement and the military.  They have received a $400 million 5-year agreement with a foreign government to distribute their products.

     

    The market is awaiting the first purchase order to provide some kind of legitimacy to the agreement.

    The Canada Bubble (?)

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    https://betterdwelling.com/city/toronto/marc-cohodes-short-canadian-real-estate/

     

    “It’s international money laundering coming into Canada…regulations are very lax”, he further explained. “China has capital controls on their money, and Canada does not have respect for a nation that has capital controls”.

     

    Bloomberg estimates that US$500 billion in capital has been moved out of China by mostly individuals, with a significant portion of it landing in Canada. Much of that has been moved into the Toronto and Vancouver housing markets.

     

    As a local resident in one of the hottest areas in all of Canada and a big beneficiary of Chinese/Iranian money, bring it on!

    Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Just noticing that it's ridiculously easy to get financing right now through alternative lenders/brokers/private financing route.  When in doubt, fake letterheads showing proof of employment can easily be obtained and there's no due dilligence being done to validate/verify these sources whatsoever.

    Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    In other news, "Canadian home prices climb another 1% in biggest February increase on record as Toronto stays strong."

     

    "Prices across Canada were up 13.4 per cent compared to a year ago, the biggest 12-month increase since November 2006. Toronto led the pack with a record 23.0 per cent surge."

    Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I personally know quite a lot of individuals partaking in the speculative/investment venture of owning multiple properties despite making nominal income.  They are getting the financing through alternative lenders and advise that forging documents to get the necessary down payment is a piece of cake right now.  I'm speaking about my experiences in the Greater Toronto Area as it likely will not reflect on the rest of the country (maybe Vancouver).

     

    It will be interesting how this unfolds in the next couple of years.

    Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I believe majority of the buyers to be locals who have taken on ridiculous amounts of debt in the belief that foreigners will keep buying at any price.

     

    My understanding of a bubble bursting is that the belief that is creating the rush to buy breaks down. The market locally has already slowed down considerably since April. Houses already sit for a while now. You don't have houses going up $100,000 in a day or even a month anymore.

     

    Most people who bought earlier in the year were expecting the prices to keep running. Not only has that stopped, but, now there is this law that attacks their belief. Most locals cannot imagine paying another $150-200,000 on top of the current prices and taxes.

     

    This is why I believe that this is the end.

     

    As the real estate market is different based on location, my area (Richmond Hill, Ontario) has experienced a 25% y/o/y increase and houses are sold within an hour of an open hours.  Again, the buyers are all Mandarin-speaking families so i'm not sure if they are considered "foregners" or not.

    Ted & Todd portfolio

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    Anyone have an idea about how much they manage right now? IIRC, the number is <10b which makes some positions from Ted pretty big. Back of the envelope based on Q3 12f:

     

    DVA - 2.6b

    AT&T - 2.0b (via DTV?)

    CHTR - 1.7b

    GM - 1.5b

    LMCA/K - 0.8b

     

    Like this guy a lot.

     

    Revised :) That should total up to $8.6 billion and i'm not sure if the Liberty Global / Lila stocks are his or not.  If so that's another 0.7b.

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