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peterism

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    Nordic European Banks

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I am local. Reading on daly basis about all these things here  :)

     

    Danske Bank is out already.

    Nordea technically is still here, but is on the way out. Nordea and DNB Bank created joint bank called Luminor (https://www.luminor.lv/en)

    and most probably will sell it soon.

    Swedbank will stay. They call Sweden and Baltics their home markets. It will be huge political blow if they decide to leave. I believe that governments will kick in some effort if things will start to move in to this direction.

     

    For Danske and Nordea exposure to the Baltics was small compared to the rest of their business.

    Damage will be more to reputation than to business if they avoid heavy fines.

     

    Swedbank is more exposed. 10.8% of all their lending is in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

     

    Hope that helps.

     

    Peteris,

     

    How about SEB? I haven't spent much time on it for some years now, because it has been doing quite well over the years since I first invested in the Wallenberg Sphere via Investor AB [, which hold a large chunk of SEB].

     

    Naturally both the bank and Investor AB are mute right now - perhaps working like crazy internally to get a firm grip on it if the bank has a problem similar to Danske Bank, Swedbank & Nordea in the Baltic States.

     

    Any news related to that from your angle? -Thank you in advance.

     

    It is clear that SEB subsidiaries in the Baltic countries also have non-resident accounts. I don't have special insights, but heard from CEO of Latvian branch words like: "looking back it is clear that we could ask more information from our customers, but we are absolutely sure that intentionally we never supported illegal cash flows".   

    Nordic European Banks

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I am local. Reading on daly basis about all these things here  :)

     

    Danske Bank is out already.

    Nordea technically is still here, but is on the way out. Nordea and DNB Bank created joint bank called Luminor (https://www.luminor.lv/en)

    and most probably will sell it soon.

    Swedbank will stay. They call Sweden and Baltics their home markets. It will be huge political blow if they decide to leave. I believe that governments will kick in some effort if things will start to move in to this direction.

     

    For Danske and Nordea exposure to the Baltics was small compared to the rest of their business.

    Damage will be more to reputation than to business if they avoid heavy fines.

     

    Swedbank is more exposed. 10.8% of all their lending is in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

     

    Hope that helps.

     

    Why are Russian stocks so cheap?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    CTCM getting crushed today due to the mass media law progressing through parliament.

    It's not clear to me how this would affect existing shareholders ...how would they get the ownership below aggregate 20%?  I can't seem to find any good info.

    I could imagine some sort of restructure with new shares representing 20% of the company and maybe an exchange offer or something? So you would get mostly cash.

     

    Anyone have a better sense of the outcome of the shares if this passes?

     

    MTG is largest foreign shareholder with 39% stake. I think that they will be politely asked to sell their shares to some government owned/controlled entity or second largest owner Telcrest. Free float is 36%, so they need to reduce it just by 16% to get to 20%.

     

    Why are Russian stocks so cheap?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    IMHO Oil, telecommunications and media are strategic for current rulers of Kremlin.

    It will be interesting to see if they go after these assets of Sistema as well?

     

    This week on Tuesday legislators in RU approved changes to legislation regarding ownership of

    media companies. Foreign owners will be allowed to own max 20% from share capital

    of media companies. Lets see how CTCM will deal with that. 

    Hey, Mr. Market! Do I really have to make FFH 50% of my portfolio?

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    Giofranchi, be carefull BV will likely do down in Q2 because of their bond portfolio. FFH marks most of their bonds to market (held for trading bonds are MTM). I can foresee some repricing of FFH this quarter.

     

    BeerBaron

     

    C’mon, beerbaron! That’s exactly Mr. Market’s thesis… There is always a reason why Mr. Market gives you an opportunity!

    And a repricing is never easy to foresee… What you can and do know with FFH is the price you pay and the value you get!

    Let a repricing unfold: I will average down gladly! ;)

     

    giofranchi

     

    It's not a thesis, the actual value of FFH went down with the bond portfolio. I like to anchor myself at a specific price/BV not a dollar value. I'll gladly buy a shipload at 90% of Q2 BV tough!

     

    BeerBaron

     

    The actual value of FFH will fluctuate a lot... Will go up and down... But I don't really care. What I care about is very simple: a company, that has increased BVPS at 20% annual for 26 years, has almost gone nowhere for 3 years now. And in the meantime it has done everything right. Someone believes they have made mistakes... But I disagree. I would have done exactely the same! And I don't think we will have to wait a lot more, to see BVPS increase very fast again. That's why I have no doubt that any price below $380 is great value!

     

    giofranchi

     

     

    Can you tell why as a yardstick for performance you are using 26 year result? If I look at last 15 years CAGR of BVPS is 12% and for last 10 years CAGR of BVPS is 11% (including dividends paid).

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